Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China announced game approval for the Feb batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.</li>
<li>The pace of China game approval appears to be accelerating, to the same level as pre-tightening.</li>
<li>Netease gets one game approved but we don't see that the acceleration of game approval benefits big names proportionally.</li>
</ul>


China announced game approval for the Feb batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to be accelerating, to the same level as pre-tightening.
Netease gets one game approved but we don't see that the acceleration of game approval benefits big names proportionally.


Tencent/Netease: Approval Rotation to Netease in Feb

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We expect NetEase to report C4Q23 revenue, GAAP op. profit and GAAP net income 4.9%, 5.7% and 8.5% vs. consensus.</li>
<li>The robust topline growth was mainly contributed by revenue recognition of &lt;Justice Mobile&gt; in the peak summer season. </li>
<li>The grossing of legacy titles like &lt;FWWJ&gt; is also growing steadily due to the low-price strategy. We raise our TP to US$118 to reflect the rich and diversified pipeline...</li>
</ul>


We expect NetEase to report C4Q23 revenue, GAAP op. profit and GAAP net income 4.9%, 5.7% and 8.5% vs. consensus.
The robust topline growth was mainly contributed by revenue recognition of &lt;Justice Mobile&gt; in the peak summer season. 
The grossing of legacy titles like &lt;FWWJ&gt; is also growing steadily due to the low-price strategy. We raise our TP to US$118 to reflect the rich and diversified pipeline...


[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$118) TP Change]: Strong In-House Game Performance Drives Margins

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

The Epic Apple duel has recently concluded its first inning. The latest US ruling disrupts Apple's stranglehold over the App Store and consequently its cut of developer revenues but fell short of confirming that Apple operated as an illegal monopoly.  An Epic appeal is underway.  While a certain segment of the US population gushed with anger over Apple's 30% cut of revenue charged to developers, elsewhere in China the situation is starkly different.
China app developers typically aim to secure all available distribution channels at all costs, which means simultaneous pre-launch conversations with multiple app store vendors.  The most popular apps often gain the most traction through push adverts on these app stores, or so the developers rationalise to themselves as they fork up to 50% commission fees to app stores and mobile carriers. By this measure, Apple seems almost benevolent!  But, why?
This article explores the App Store dynamic in China, which is dominated by Android smartphone manufacturers, and discusses whether an Epic Apple esque duel might unravel in China.

The Epic Apple duel has recently concluded its first inning. The latest US ruling disrupts Apple's stranglehold over the App Store and consequently its cut of developer revenues but fell short of confirming that Apple operated as an illegal monopoly.  An Epic appeal is underway.  While a certain segment of the US population gushed with anger over Apple's 30% cut of revenue charged to developers, elsewhere in China the situation is starkly different.
China app developers typically aim to secure all available distribution channels at all costs, which means simultaneous pre-launch conversations with multiple app store vendors.  The most popular apps often gain the most traction through push adverts on these app stores, or so the developers rationalise to themselves as they fork up to 50% commission fees to app stores and mobile carriers. By this measure, Apple seems almost benevolent!  But, why?
This article explores the App Store dynamic in China, which is dominated by Android smartphone manufacturers, and discusses whether an Epic Apple esque duel might unravel in China. 

Forensic Accounting

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s share price retreated 3.2% overnight on news that China would restrict playing time for minors to 3 hours a week - that is, 8pm to 9pm time slots on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with an extra hour on public holidays.  The share price erased these losses and recorded an intra-day gain of 3.3% by Tuesday's market close, suggesting that regulatory concerns were assuaged by Tencent's affirmation of low single-digit revenue contribution of minors. 
Insight Provider Mio Kato wrote a unique but sensible piece about how the market may have misunderstood the significance of the restrictions, with the implications for the long-term growth of the industry more severe and an appreciation of the relevant issues would come sooner.  A key thrust of the argument is that habit-formation of gaming at an early age would be disrupted to an extent that gaming habits and user time spent do not carry over into adulthood. 
Tencent's gaming revenue is derived primarily from the sales of in-game virtual items and the provision of adjacent services.  In this article, we expand on the above argument by highlighting how the habit-formation disruption not only affects user time spent but also have a knock-on impact with respect to in-game virtual item spending, subscription, and IP consumption. 
Further, Tencent's revenue recognition on the provision of online games heavily depends on management's assumptions of the gamer's usage profile, which was in turn determined based on past gaming habits. This was historically raised as a Key Audit Matter in Tencent's Audit Opinions. Accordingly, we also discuss in this article how the underlying management assumptions might change as a result of the regulations and consequent impact on Tencent's gaming revenues.

Tencent (700 HK)'s share price retreated 3.2% overnight on news that China would restrict playing time for minors to 3 hours a week - that is, 8pm to 9pm time slots on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with an extra hour on public holidays.  The share price erased these losses and recorded an intra-day gain of 3.3% by Tuesday's market close, suggesting that regulatory concerns were assuaged by Tencent's affirmation of low single-digit revenue contribution of minors. 
Insight Provider Mio Kato wrote a unique but sensible piece about how the market may have misunderstood the significance of the restrictions, with the implications for the long-term growth of the industry more severe and an appreciation of the relevant issues would come sooner.  A key thrust of the argument is that habit-formation of gaming at an early age would be disrupted to an extent that gaming habits and user time spent do not carry over into adulthood. 
Tencent's gaming revenue is derived primarily from the sales of in-game virtual items and the provision of adjacent services.  In this article, we expand on the above argument by highlighting how the habit-formation disruption not only affects user time spent but also have a knock-on impact with respect to in-game virtual item spending, subscription, and IP consumption. 
Further, Tencent's revenue recognition on the provision of online games heavily depends on management's assumptions of the gamer's usage profile, which was in turn determined based on past gaming habits. This was historically raised as a Key Audit Matter in Tencent's Audit Opinions. Accordingly, we also discuss in this article how the underlying management assumptions might change as a result of the regulations and consequent impact on Tencent's gaming revenues. 

Tencent - An Analytical Framework For "Tomorrow's" Gaming Minors

China

NetEase, Inc. operates as an leading internet technology company providing online services including content, community, communication, and commerce. The Company develops and operates online games, electronic commerce, internet media, innovative business, and other businesses. NetEase expands its businesses to Japan, North American, and other other international markets.

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NetEase (9999 HK)

Tencent/Netease: Approval Rotation to Netease in Feb

China's game approval process is picking up pace, with more games approved in February compared to monthly average last year, we also observed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$118) TP Change]: Strong In-House Game Performance Drives Margins

NetEase's strong revenue growth in C4Q23 driven by <em>Justice Mobile</em> and low-price strategy for legacy titles, leading to increased target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Epic Apple Esque Duel in China? or Nah?

The Epic Apple ruling disrupts Apple's share of developer revenues. Yet, the 30% charges seem low versus China. What is the App Store landscape in...

Jason Yap, CFA

Tencent - An Analytical Framework For "Tomorrow's" Gaming Minors

Tencent's investors' response to latest online gaming restrictions have been measured due to small revenue contribution from minors. We discuss how...

Jason Yap, CFA

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Tencent/Netease: Approval Rotation to Netease in Feb

​China's game approval process is picking up pace, with more games approved in February compared to monthly average last year, we also observed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$118) TP Change]: Strong In-House Game Performance Drives Margins

​NetEase's strong revenue growth in C4Q23 driven by <em>Justice Mobile</em> and low-price strategy for legacy titles, leading to increased target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Epic Apple Esque Duel in China? or Nah?

The Epic Apple ruling disrupts Apple's share of developer revenues. Yet, the 30% charges seem low versus China. What is the App Store landscape in...

Jason Yap, CFA

Tencent - An Analytical Framework For "Tomorrow's" Gaming Minors

Tencent's investors' response to latest online gaming restrictions have been measured due to small revenue contribution from minors. We discuss how...

Jason Yap, CFA

China's game approval process is picking up pace, with more games approved in February compared to monthly average last year, we also observed...

NetEase's strong revenue growth in C4Q23 driven by <em>Justice Mobile</em> and low-price strategy for legacy titles, leading to increased target...