Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New title approvals halved during 2021, yet overall industry games revenue grew by 3.4%y/y. 1H22 new games approvals are down a further 82%y/y, yet games revenue is down 1.8%.</li>
<li>Tencent has lost revenue market share to the overall Chinese online game software market, most notably to NetEase, this year.</li>
<li>Tencent’s paying gamer participation rate has dropped to levels last seen during 2018.</li>
</ul>


New title approvals halved during 2021, yet overall industry games revenue grew by 3.4%y/y. 1H22 new games approvals are down a further 82%y/y, yet games revenue is down 1.8%.
Tencent has lost revenue market share to the overall Chinese online game software market, most notably to NetEase, this year.
Tencent’s paying gamer participation rate has dropped to levels last seen during 2018.


Tencent: Domestic Game Approvals Over-Hyped as a Revenue Growth Driver

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.</li>
<li>Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.</li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.
Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.


Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. Average weights have drifted below 10% for the first time since 2013.</li>
<li>Tencent was the driver of the declining sector weight, yet managers are keeping the faith.  Asian managers cut exposure to Bilibili and China Mobile yet increased NetEase and Baidu.</li>
<li>Versus the MSCI China index, active managers are underweight -6.69% on average, the largest among sector peers and offset by overweights in Industrials and Consumer Staples</li>
</ul>


Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. Average weights have drifted below 10% for the first time since 2013.
Tencent was the driver of the declining sector weight, yet managers are keeping the faith.  Asian managers cut exposure to Bilibili and China Mobile yet increased NetEase and Baidu.
Versus the MSCI China index, active managers are underweight -6.69% on average, the largest among sector peers and offset by overweights in Industrials and Consumer Staples


China Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Logistics companies’ revenue grew by over 10%, which reflects the recovery of e-commerce.</li>
<li>The market size of Chinese online game continued to shrink in July.</li>
<li>Alibaba’s Ele.me sets up a mini-program on TikTok to fight Meituan.</li>
</ul>


Logistics companies’ revenue grew by over 10%, which reflects the recovery of e-commerce.
The market size of Chinese online game continued to shrink in July.
Alibaba’s Ele.me sets up a mini-program on TikTok to fight Meituan.


China Internet Weekly (22Aug22): E-Commerce, Logistics, Online Game, Food Delivery

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index Team announced four changes to the Hang Seng Index, bringing membership to 73 from 69, on its way to 80, but later than originally targeter mid-2022. </li>
<li>Additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Official placeholder turnover is about 3.8%. Small changes due to capping updates still to come. China Shenhua and possibly Chow Tai Fook look interesting as trades.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index Team announced four changes to the Hang Seng Index, bringing membership to 73 from 69, on its way to 80, but later than originally targeter mid-2022. 
Additions are China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), and Baidu (9888 HK). 
Official placeholder turnover is about 3.8%. Small changes due to capping updates still to come. China Shenhua and possibly Chow Tai Fook look interesting as trades.


Hang Seng Index Rebalance - FOUR Names IN, None Out (The March to 80 Continues)

China

NetEase, Inc. operates as an leading internet technology company providing online services including content, community, communication, and commerce. The Company develops and operates online games, electronic commerce, internet media, innovative business, and other businesses. NetEase expands its businesses to Japan, North American, and other other international markets.

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NetEase (9999 HK)

Tencent: Domestic Game Approvals Over-Hyped as a Revenue Growth Driver

In this insight, we analyse Chinese game approvals, how that relates to revenue growth and other key revenue growth drivers such as top grossing...

Wium Malan, CFA

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

Short notional in HK has decreased as a result of falling prices. Shorts have been increasing on a lot of stocks over the year. A rally could see...

Brian Freitas

China Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. This analysis looks at the funds and the...

Steven Holden

China Internet Weekly (22Aug22): E-Commerce, Logistics, Online Game, Food Delivery

Logistics companies’ revenue grew by over 10%, which reflects the recovery of e-commerce. The market size of Chinese online game continued to...

Ming Lu

Hang Seng Index Rebalance - FOUR Names IN, None Out (The March to 80 Continues)

The Hang Seng Index Rebalance has 4 ADDs and zero DELETEs for September on course for 80 names in March-June 2023. The two 'interesting' ADDs to me...

Travis Lundy

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