China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Three risks in the short term: 1) Decreased gross billings from former legacies due to macro. 2) Lifecycle issues with new games. 3) Market over-optimism regarding new games and AI.</li>
<li>NetEase still has some positive catalysts in the long term, including: 1) New games and content expansions. 2) Overseas game publishing. 3) Continual improvement in margins.</li>
<li>We expect NetEase's revenue in 2Q23 to be slightly lower than the consensus estimates of 2.5%, with a 13.3% beat in profits. Cut TP to $102, but maintain BUY rating.</li>
</ul>


Three risks in the short term: 1) Decreased gross billings from former legacies due to macro. 2) Lifecycle issues with new games. 3) Market over-optimism regarding new games and AI.
NetEase still has some positive catalysts in the long term, including: 1) New games and content expansions. 2) Overseas game publishing. 3) Continual improvement in margins.
We expect NetEase's revenue in 2Q23 to be slightly lower than the consensus estimates of 2.5%, with a 13.3% beat in profits. Cut TP to $102, but maintain BUY rating.


[NetEase(NTES US, BUY, TP US$102) TP Change]: Cut TP to $102 Due to More Near-Term Downside Risks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We suggest that both Tencent and NetEase will launch blockbuster new games in their pipelines during this year's summer vacation, with NetEase slightly surpassing Tencent.  </li>
<li>Although iQIYI, Kuaishou, and BILI each have new games, their contributions are relatively small, so we maintain a SELL rating for these three companies;</li>
<li>Investors can also pay attention to Nexon and Netmarble, two Korean game companies that are expected to benefit from the launch of new games;  </li>
</ul>


We suggest that both Tencent and NetEase will launch blockbuster new games in their pipelines during this year's summer vacation, with NetEase slightly surpassing Tencent.  
Although iQIYI, Kuaishou, and BILI each have new games, their contributions are relatively small, so we maintain a SELL rating for these three companies;
Investors can also pay attention to Nexon and Netmarble, two Korean game companies that are expected to benefit from the launch of new games;  


Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update: Tencent, NetEase and Kingsoft Have Strong Pipeline

<ul>
<li>NTES/700.HK: China’s NPPA publishes list of 89 domestic game code approval</li>
<li>9995HK/1801HK：RemeGen explored ADC-PD1 combination theray for its RC88 and RC108 with Innovent (-)</li>
<li>LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK: Tourism spending maintain stable growth during Dragon Boat Festival, indicating sustainable recovery in service oriented consumption in China.(+)</li>
</ul>


NTES/700.HK: China’s NPPA publishes list of 89 domestic game code approval
9995HK/1801HK：RemeGen explored ADC-PD1 combination theray for its RC88 and RC108 with Innovent (-)
LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK: Tourism spending maintain stable growth during Dragon Boat Festival, indicating sustainable recovery in service oriented consumption in China.(+)


China TMT Update-NTES/700.HK/9995HK/1801HK/LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK:Game Code,ADC-PD1, Tourism Spend

<ul>
<li>NTES：NetEase announced that the international version of "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened" on June 27</li>
<li>1024HK： Kuaishou E-commerce Platform will adjust its service fees for "Try Before You Buy" orders，which will have a positive impact on its profit（+）</li>
<li>ZTO: MOT reports weekly express parcel volume for the period ending June 25, 2023 (+/+)</li>
</ul>


NTES：NetEase announced that the international version of "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened" on June 27
1024HK： Kuaishou E-commerce Platform will adjust its service fees for "Try Before You Buy" orders，which will have a positive impact on its profit（+）
ZTO: MOT reports weekly express parcel volume for the period ending June 25, 2023 (+/+)


China TMT Update-NTES/1024.HK/ZTO: Kuaishou Raises Service Fees; Harry Potter Mobile Overseas;parcel

China

NetEase, Inc. operates as an leading internet technology company providing online services including content, community, communication, and commerce. The Company develops and operates online games, electronic commerce, internet media, innovative business, and other businesses. NetEase expands its businesses to Japan, North American, and other other international markets.

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NetEase (9999 HK)

[NetEase(NTES US, BUY, TP US$102) TP Change]: Cut TP to $102 Due to More Near-Term Downside Risks

NetEase faces three risks in the short term: 1) Decreased gross billings from former legacies due to macro. 2) Lifecycle issues with new games; 3)...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update: Tencent, NetEase and Kingsoft Have Strong Pipeline

We suggest that both Tencent and NetEase will launch blockbuster new games in their pipelines during this year's summer vacation, with NetEase...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-NTES/700.HK/9995HK/1801HK/LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK:Game Code,ADC-PD1, Tourism Spend

NTES/700.HK: 89 domestic game code approval；9995HK/1801HK：RemeGen explored ADC-PD1 combination theray；LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK: Tourism spending...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-NTES/1024.HK/ZTO: Kuaishou Raises Service Fees; Harry Potter Mobile Overseas;parcel

NetEase: international version of "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened" on June 27； Kuaishou E-commerce will adjust its service fees；ZTO: MOT reports...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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