Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.</p>

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Will Semiconductor   Shan / Technical Analysis

<p>New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.</p>

New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.</p></div><div><p>It has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business (BFB), which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative (MA) business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.</p></div><div><p>MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. </p></div><div><p>In our previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-the-positives-high-market-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-the-negatives-high-debt-div-payments-floundering-ma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Negatives - High Debt, Div Payments, Floundering MA</a> we spoke about the company background and its past performance. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-for-food-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Food Business</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-for-meat-alternative-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Meat Alternative Business</a> we compared the two business with their regional and global peers. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> we discussed our thoughts on valuation.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we’ll talk about implied valuation at its fixed price.</p></div>

Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.It has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business (BFB), which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative (MA) business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. In our previous notes, Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share, and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Negatives - High Debt, Div Payments, Floundering MA we spoke about the company background and its past performance. In Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Food Business and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Meat Alternative Business we compared the two business with their regional and global peers. In Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation we discussed our thoughts on valuation.In this note, we’ll talk about implied valuation at its fixed price.

Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Not Cheap but Sensible

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In this note, we discuss how <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beyond-meat-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28065:1" rel="noopener">Beyond Meat (BYND US)'s</a> stock gets an unanticipated stroke of positive lift from a win-win with  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pepsico-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4967:1" rel="noopener">Pepsico Inc (PEP US)</a> to produce and market plant-based protein snacks and beverages. As consumer brands globally strive to align themselves with the "Better for You and Planet too" value that resonates strongly with younger customers, plant-based foods are clearly in focus. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beyond-meat-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28065:1" rel="noopener">Beyond Meat (BYND US)</a> with its widely recognized brand presence in plant-based protein is well-positioned to benefit from the rising demand for plant-based foods. </p><p>We believe this deal could help Beyond accelerate growth in the retail segment, thus widen product reach and enhance product visibility. Although operational or financial details of the deal are not available yet, in the note below we look at what it could mean for either parties and surmise that it could be a win-win for both. </p>

In this note, we discuss how Beyond Meat (BYND US)'s stock gets an unanticipated stroke of positive lift from a win-win with  Pepsico Inc (PEP US) to produce and market plant-based protein snacks and beverages. As consumer brands globally strive to align themselves with the "Better for You and Planet too" value that resonates strongly with younger customers, plant-based foods are clearly in focus. Beyond Meat (BYND US) with its widely recognized brand presence in plant-based protein is well-positioned to benefit from the rising demand for plant-based foods. We believe this deal could help Beyond accelerate growth in the retail segment, thus widen product reach and enhance product visibility. Although operational or financial details of the deal are not available yet, in the note below we look at what it could mean for either parties and surmise that it could be a win-win for both. 

Beyond Meat: A Win-Win Deal with PepsiCo to Sell Plant-Based Snacks, Drinks

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

<ul>
<li>According to our definition, A2 Milk is a wonderful business largely thanks to its superior return on capital guarded by a multi-layered moat, a megatrend-driven growth prospect, and the capability to compound earnings for shareholders;</li>
<li>Mr. Market displayed his short-termism in terms of the stock recently, which we think provides a rare entry point for investors interested in the company into 2021.</li>
</ul>


According to our definition, A2 Milk is a wonderful business largely thanks to its superior return on capital guarded by a multi-layered moat, a megatrend-driven growth prospect, and the capability to compound earnings for shareholders;
Mr. Market displayed his short-termism in terms of the stock recently, which we think provides a rare entry point for investors interested in the company into 2021.


United States

Nestle S.A. is a multinational packaged food company, that manufactures and markets a wide range of food products. The Company's product line includes milk, chocolate, confectionery, bottled water, coffee, creamer, food seasoning and pet foods.

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Nestle (NESN SW)

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

With interest rates expected to move sideways to lower, we recommend a mix of growth and defensive Sectors. Today we focus on Services/Technology...

Vermilion Research

Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Not Cheap but Sensible

Monde Nissin aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO. It has two main businesses: Branded Food and Beverage Business, which sells...

Sumeet Singh

Beyond Meat: A Win-Win Deal with PepsiCo to Sell Plant-Based Snacks, Drinks

Discuss how Beyond Meat (BYND US) gets an unanticipated stroke of positive lift from a win-win deal with Pepsico to sell Plant-based snacks and...

Devi Subhakesan

2021 High Conviction: A2 Milk

Buying quality businesses at or below fair prices and holding them for the long run is the key to generate alpha. A2 Milk at the current level...

Steven Chen

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