Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Exceeding our upgraded FY24 PAT estimate of INR 350cr+, Nesco reported PAT of INR 363cr, led by Q4Y24 PAT of INR 105cr, a rise of 24% YoY and 12%+ QoQ.</li>
<li>Q4FY24 revenues grew 6%+ QoQ and 20%+ YoY. Growth was driven by BEC where revenues grew 6% QoQ and 31%+ YoY. IT Park revenue grew 2% QoQ and 13% YoY.</li>
<li>For FY25, we estimate that Nesco could post a PAT of INR 420cr+. Per our FY25 exit P/E of 26x+, Nesco could be valued at around INR 11000cr.</li>
</ul>


Exceeding our upgraded FY24 PAT estimate of INR 350cr+, Nesco reported PAT of INR 363cr, led by Q4Y24 PAT of INR 105cr, a rise of 24% YoY and 12%+ QoQ.
Q4FY24 revenues grew 6%+ QoQ and 20%+ YoY. Growth was driven by BEC where revenues grew 6% QoQ and 31%+ YoY. IT Park revenue grew 2% QoQ and 13% YoY.
For FY25, we estimate that Nesco could post a PAT of INR 420cr+. Per our FY25 exit P/E of 26x+, Nesco could be valued at around INR 11000cr.


<ul>
<li>Nesco reported a strong Q3FY24 led by significant growth in the exhibition business. It grew by 55%+ YoY and grew 3%+ QoQ despite Q2 being a seasonally strong quarter.</li>
<li>The IT business performed steady with revenues at around INR 80cr and EBIT at around 65cr. Revenue declined by -4% QoQ, led by slight decline in occupancy.</li>
<li>Nesco is now on track to beat our prior FY24 upgraded PAT estimate of INR 330cr+. It may now end FY24 with a PAT of INR 350cr+.</li>
</ul>


Nesco reported a strong Q3FY24 led by significant growth in the exhibition business. It grew by 55%+ YoY and grew 3%+ QoQ despite Q2 being a seasonally strong quarter.
The IT business performed steady with revenues at around INR 80cr and EBIT at around 65cr. Revenue declined by -4% QoQ, led by slight decline in occupancy.
Nesco is now on track to beat our prior FY24 upgraded PAT estimate of INR 330cr+. It may now end FY24 with a PAT of INR 350cr+.


<ul>
<li>Nesco reported strong growth in BEC revenues led by Q2 being a seasonally strong quarter for the exhibition business. Even in YoY terms, the growth was decent at 8%.</li>
<li>Nesco IT Park revenues also jumped by 14% QoQ, suggesting that the occupancy level in Tower 3 has gone up from 82% earlier.</li>
<li>Nesco Foods business continues to grow rapidly as the new Food Court and Restaurants have seen strong traction. Revenue in Foods business has more than doubled YoY.</li>
</ul>


Nesco reported strong growth in BEC revenues led by Q2 being a seasonally strong quarter for the exhibition business. Even in YoY terms, the growth was decent at 8%.
Nesco IT Park revenues also jumped by 14% QoQ, suggesting that the occupancy level in Tower 3 has gone up from 82% earlier.
Nesco Foods business continues to grow rapidly as the new Food Court and Restaurants have seen strong traction. Revenue in Foods business has more than doubled YoY.


<ul>
<li>Q1 tends to be a seasonally weak quarter for the exhibition business (BEC) and as a result, the revenues declined on a QoQ basis.</li>
<li>However, in YoY terms, BEC revenues grew 75%+ and exceeded pre-COVID levels, i.e. the revenues are up 7% vs that in Q1FY20.</li>
<li>The IT Parks business saw marginal improvement of 1% QoQ growth suggesting that the occupancy level is steady. Occupancy is 97% in Tower 4 and 82% in Tower 3.</li>
</ul>


Q1 tends to be a seasonally weak quarter for the exhibition business (BEC) and as a result, the revenues declined on a QoQ basis.
However, in YoY terms, BEC revenues grew 75%+ and exceeded pre-COVID levels, i.e. the revenues are up 7% vs that in Q1FY20.
The IT Parks business saw marginal improvement of 1% QoQ growth suggesting that the occupancy level is steady. Occupancy is 97% in Tower 4 and 82% in Tower 3.


Nesco: FY24 Earnings on Track to Be Strong

<ul>
<li>As projected, Nesco's BEC business has completely normalized and clocked INR 45cr+ revenues in Q4FY23. With this, Nesco clocked FY23 PAT of INR 290cr+, well above our INR 250cr+ estimate.</li>
<li>Alongside the BEC business, Nesco's foods business has also seen significant recovery led by footfalls from the BEC. Independent of BEC also, Nesco Foods is growing significantly on its own.</li>
<li>Nesco is on track to earn PAT of INR 320cr+ for FY24, suggesting that at the current market cap of INR 4250cr, it is valued attractively at 13x P/E.</li>
</ul>


As projected, Nesco's BEC business has completely normalized and clocked INR 45cr+ revenues in Q4FY23. With this, Nesco clocked FY23 PAT of INR 290cr+, well above our INR 250cr+ estimate.
Alongside the BEC business, Nesco's foods business has also seen significant recovery led by footfalls from the BEC. Independent of BEC also, Nesco Foods is growing significantly on its own.
Nesco is on track to earn PAT of INR 320cr+ for FY24, suggesting that at the current market cap of INR 4250cr, it is valued attractively at 13x P/E.


Nesco: BEC Business Is Now Beyond Pre-COVID Level | Foods Business Is Expanding Into New Horizons

India

Nesco Ltd. is a diversified company involved in manufacturing and engineering products for railways and forging,  realty development, and runs an exhibition center.

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Nesco Ltd (NSE IN)

Nesco: Strong Performance Continues

Nesco's Q4FY24 PAT at INR 360cr+ came in better than even our upgraded estimate of INR 350cr+. At the current valuation, an investment in Nesco...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Nesco: Stellar Q3FY24

Nesco reported a stellar Q3FY24 led by strong growth in the Exhibition and the Foods businesses. We are now upgrading our FY24E PAT to INR 350cr+...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Nesco: Strong Q2FY24 Earnings

Nesco reported a strong jump in revenues across BEC, IT Parks and Foods businesses. Biggest positive surprise was the jump in the IT Park occupancy...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Nesco: FY24 Earnings on Track to Be Strong

Nesco's business has now completely normalized post-COVID. FY24 PAT is on track to be INR 320cr+. An investment in Nesco at the current valuation...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Nesco: BEC Business Is Now Beyond Pre-COVID Level | Foods Business Is Expanding Into New Horizons

An investment in Nesco has potential to more than double over the next couple of years. BEC business is now doing better than the pre-COVID level....

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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