Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-tsusho-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13826:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Tsusho (8015 JP)</a> announced it would take out minorities in electronics parts/items producer subsidiary (since 2012) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elematec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2866:1" rel="noopener">Elematec Corp (2715 JP)</a> at 40% up.</li>
<li>It has been a bad year, so this is opportunistic. The price is too cheap, there are no synergies involved, there was no Special Committee Financial Advisor. Weak process. </li>
<li>But this gets done because the parent plus friendlies start with 62% or so. </li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Toyota Tsusho (8015 JP) announced it would take out minorities in electronics parts/items producer subsidiary (since 2012) Elematec Corp (2715 JP) at 40% up.
It has been a bad year, so this is opportunistic. The price is too cheap, there are no synergies involved, there was no Special Committee Financial Advisor. Weak process. 
But this gets done because the parent plus friendlies start with 62% or so. 


Elematec (2715 JP) Tender Offer by Parent Co at ¥2,400. Cheap, Weak Process, But WhatchaGonnaDo?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 28 April 2022, with full-year earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> announced a buyback programme to buy back up to 12mm shares (6.11% of shares out) for up to ¥150bn</li>
<li>That was when the shares were ¥18,540. The shares popped 10% in 2 days. Then fell 25% into end-September. Yesterday, they announced they'd bought back 1.9mm shares in November.</li>
<li>Those were the first shares bought back under the Programme. And that leaves 4 months and a lot of stock to buy. </li>
</ul>


On 28 April 2022, with full-year earnings, Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) announced a buyback programme to buy back up to 12mm shares (6.11% of shares out) for up to ¥150bn
That was when the shares were ¥18,540. The shares popped 10% in 2 days. Then fell 25% into end-September. Yesterday, they announced they'd bought back 1.9mm shares in November.
Those were the first shares bought back under the Programme. And that leaves 4 months and a lot of stock to buy. 


Fujitsu (6702) Buyback Just Getting Started

Equity Capital Markets

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 25 November <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. </li>
<li>The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. </li>
<li>Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.</li>
</ul>


On 25 November Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced that Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. 
The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. 
Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.


NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Japan

NEC Networks & System Integration Corporation designs, constructs, and maintains communication systems.  The Company's services include system integration services for digital switching, local area network (LAN), and mobile communication systems.  NEC Networks & System Integration also constructs information infrastructure and intelligent building facilities.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

For the month of Oct, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Elematec (2715 JP) Tender Offer by Parent Co at ¥2,400. Cheap, Weak Process, But WhatchaGonnaDo?

Toyota Tsusho announces it will buy out minorities in Elematec 12 years after making it a subsidiary. This is a small bolt-on. Cleans up things....

Travis Lundy

Fujitsu (6702) Buyback Just Getting Started

Fujitsu announced their buyback many months ago (late April 2022) but bought nothing til last month when they were 15%. Expect 11-15% of volume...

Travis Lundy

NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

NRi has underperformed Peers since its announcement. It's current PER multiple to the Peer Average matches the lowest 3-month average premium seen...

Travis Lundy

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)