'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/068/507/original/2018-11-02_10-20-29.png?1541121653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="68507"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
NB: companies are colour-coded by sector
</div>28 YEARS OF NON-FINANCIAL MARKET LEADERSHIP - To offer some light relief from the current market, we have compiled a graphic illustrating the evolution in the ranking of the leading non-financial Japanese companies by market capitalisation measured at the end of each of the last 28 years.METHODOLOGY - Our comments follow in the detail below, but first a few notes:-<ul>
<li>In the interests of clarity (/sanity?), financials have been omitted. Twelve of the Top 20-ranked companies in 1990 were financials. However, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/742" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1">Nomura (8604 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1">Aozora (8304 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16897" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1">Shinsei (8303 JP)</a> have survived in their original corporate structure and have the same ticker code. Our chart would have otherwise have included the now-merged IBJ, Fuji Bank, Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, Mitsubishi Bank, Sakura Bank, Sumitomo Bank, Tokai Bank, Sanwa Bank and Mitsubishi Trust Bank.  Excluded from the present-day Top 20 are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/218" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1">Mitsubishi UFJ (8306 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/217" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/838" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho Financial (8411 JP)</a> from the present day.</li>
<li>Only companies that were in the Top 20 in 1990 or 2018, as well as those companies that have been in the Top 10 for at least three of the last 28 years, have been included. </li>
<li>Two companies from 1990's Top 20 - Seibu Railway and Japan Airlines - have since been delisted. Although they have relisted as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/458" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1">Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1184" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1">Japan Airlines (9201 JP)</a>, they are no longer highly-ranked.</li>
<li>Seven current Top 20 companies - (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/639" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1">KDDI (9433 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13498" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13520" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13520:1">Central Japan Railway (9022 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1">Recruit (6098 JP)</a>)  - have listed during the last 28 years. </li>
</ul>THE 2050 RANKING?- Which of the current market leaders will still be in the Top 20 in 2050 in their current guise? For those still around to read this in 32 year's time, we would wager on just three - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3077" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/563" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1">Sony (6758 JP)</a>.


Source: Japan Analytics
NB: companies are colour-coded by sector
28 YEARS OF NON-FINANCIAL MARKET LEADERSHIP - To offer some light relief from the current market, we have compiled a graphic illustrating the evolution in the ranking of the leading non-financial Japanese companies by market capitalisation measured at the end of each of the last 28 years.METHODOLOGY - Our comments follow in the detail below, but first a few notes:-
In the interests of clarity (/sanity?), financials have been omitted. Twelve of the Top 20-ranked companies in 1990 were financials. However, only Nomura (8604 JP), Aozora (8304 JP) and Shinsei (8303 JP) have survived in their original corporate structure and have the same ticker code. Our chart would have otherwise have included the now-merged IBJ, Fuji Bank, Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, Mitsubishi Bank, Sakura Bank, Sumitomo Bank, Tokai Bank, Sanwa Bank and Mitsubishi Trust Bank.  Excluded from the present-day Top 20 are Mitsubishi UFJ (8306 JP), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP), Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) and Mizuho Financial (8411 JP) from the present day.
Only companies that were in the Top 20 in 1990 or 2018, as well as those companies that have been in the Top 10 for at least three of the last 28 years, have been included. 
Two companies from 1990's Top 20 - Seibu Railway and Japan Airlines - have since been delisted. Although they have relisted as Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) and Japan Airlines (9201 JP), they are no longer highly-ranked.
Seven current Top 20 companies - (Softbank (9984 JP), NTT Docomo (9437 JP), KDDI (9433 JP), Japan Tobacco (2914 JP), Central Japan Railway (9022 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Recruit (6098 JP))  - have listed during the last 28 years. 
THE 2050 RANKING?- Which of the current market leaders will still be in the Top 20 in 2050 in their current guise? For those still around to read this in 32 year's time, we would wager on just three - Keyence (6861 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sony (6758 JP). 

Japan: The Evolution Of (Non-Financial) Market Leadership

Specialist in Japanese equities, Kheiron Group

Nathan Ramler, CFA

Specialist in Japanese equities

Kheiron Group

Tokyo-based with experience in global equity markets and M&A. Striving to add value and insight. 

Specialists in Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

5G sounds great, right? – faster speeds, more capacity, improved efficiency – but what does that really mean? The reality is that 5G isn’t needed for consumer services. In Japan, 4G and its improvements can be more than sufficient to deliver network speeds and capacity that give consumers a good experience. That doesn’t mean that 5G won’t improve consumers’ service experience, but we expect the main use cases for 5G to be industrial, not consumer. We do anticipate 5G in Japan will open up opportunities for new services and revenue streams.Japanese telco capex has been trending lower. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/623" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1">NTT (9432 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/639" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1">KDDI (9433 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank (9984 JP)</a>, and even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> are all investing in 5G, but telco cash flows are not waiting to be crushed by 5G spending because 5G can piggyback on existing infrastructure. The technology comes as a more gradual shift and is complementary to 4G technologies, so we do not expect 5G to result in material changes or pressures on absolute capex spending. Yes, there are some new technological elements needed in the networks and previous generational shifts of technology have not always been smooth, but we see no call to panic about 5G.In this insight we look at:<ol>
<li>The timeline for 5G and an explanation of what 5G is</li>
<li>Use cases for the technology and competitive threats to the network operators</li>
<li>A deep dive into the technology itself – if you want to know your MIMO from your NOMA, come join us as we let our inner geek run rampant</li>
</ol>

5G sounds great, right? – faster speeds, more capacity, improved efficiency – but what does that really mean? The reality is that 5G isn’t needed for consumer services. In Japan, 4G and its improvements can be more than sufficient to deliver network speeds and capacity that give consumers a good experience. That doesn’t mean that 5G won’t improve consumers’ service experience, but we expect the main use cases for 5G to be industrial, not consumer. We do anticipate 5G in Japan will open up opportunities for new services and revenue streams.Japanese telco capex has been trending lower. NTT (9432 JP), NTT Docomo (9437 JP), KDDI (9433 JP), Softbank (9984 JP), and even Rakuten (4755 JP) are all investing in 5G, but telco cash flows are not waiting to be crushed by 5G spending because 5G can piggyback on existing infrastructure. The technology comes as a more gradual shift and is complementary to 4G technologies, so we do not expect 5G to result in material changes or pressures on absolute capex spending. Yes, there are some new technological elements needed in the networks and previous generational shifts of technology have not always been smooth, but we see no call to panic about 5G.In this insight we look at:
The timeline for 5G and an explanation of what 5G is
Use cases for the technology and competitive threats to the network operators
A deep dive into the technology itself – if you want to know your MIMO from your NOMA, come join us as we let our inner geek run rampant


5G Is Coming – Don’t Panic. Sensible Plans from SoftBank (9984 JP), Docomo (9437 JP), KDDI (9433 JP)

Japan Equity Analyst, all sectors

David Rubenstein

Equity Bottom-Up

Life behind bars
We believe that Asahi has an interesting secular growth story unrealized by most institutional investors. At a Y37bn market cap, this small cap punches above its weight, trading $2 million dollars per day. However, we believe that the real value has yet to be unleashed. Asahi is the only listed pure-play bicycle retailer in Japan. It has the top market share at 18-20% and continues to increase share every year by opening new stores and expanding existing stores footprint.
Why we want to ride Asahi’s bicycles:
<ul>
<li>Secular growth: Solid, stable growth by ASP rise and store expansion.</li>
<li>Scale merit: smashing the local bike shops; procures low-cost China product.</li>
<li>Defensive: domestic play, anti-currency.</li>
<li>Carbon footprint low: Largest bike seller in Japan, could attract green funds.</li>
<li>Valuation attractive: PB of 1.4x is near all-time low.</li>
<li>Currency hedge: JPY strength against the RMB is a tailwind for earnings.</li>
</ul>

Life behind bars
We believe that Asahi has an interesting secular growth story unrealized by most institutional investors. At a Y37bn market cap, this small cap punches above its weight, trading $2 million dollars per day. However, we believe that the real value has yet to be unleashed. Asahi is the only listed pure-play bicycle retailer in Japan. It has the top market share at 18-20% and continues to increase share every year by opening new stores and expanding existing stores footprint.
Why we want to ride Asahi’s bicycles:

Secular growth: Solid, stable growth by ASP rise and store expansion.
Scale merit: smashing the local bike shops; procures low-cost China product.
Defensive: domestic play, anti-currency.
Carbon footprint low: Largest bike seller in Japan, could attract green funds.
Valuation attractive: PB of 1.4x is near all-time low.
Currency hedge: JPY strength against the RMB is a tailwind for earnings.


Asahi (3333 Jp): I Want to Ride My Bicycle

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Last evening hedge fund King Street addressed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> in a letter urging quicker implementation of the company's buyback together with an expansion in size from ¥700bn to ¥1.1trn. King Street went on to outline further initiatives which they felt had the potential to boost shareholder value.Details can be found on the <a href="https://www.unlockingtoshibavalue.com/undervalued.html" target="_blank">website set up for this purpose</a> and in their <a href="https://www.unlockingtoshibavalue.com/assets/toshibapres.pdf" target="_blank">detailed 127 page presentation</a>.After reading through their presentation, while we agree with some assertions, we by and large find their assumptions to be excessively optimistic. We focus on the assumptions surrounding Toshiba's operating businesses though <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/25" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25">Travis Lundy</a> may have thoughts on the capacity to accelerate the buyback as well.Our view on the potential value of Toshiba has not changed much from when we published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-gauging-the-upside-potential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21322">Toshiba: Gauging the Upside Potential</a>. We feel that an operating margin of about 5% is a reasonable medium-term target for Toshiba to achieve. King Street's 10.6% target for the Toshiba Next Plan (TNP) is far too high in our opinion and even a 7-8% OPM would be a fantastic result for Toshiba as far as we are concerned.We delve into the details below.

Last evening hedge fund King Street addressed Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) in a letter urging quicker implementation of the company's buyback together with an expansion in size from ¥700bn to ¥1.1trn. King Street went on to outline further initiatives which they felt had the potential to boost shareholder value.Details can be found on the website set up for this purpose and in their detailed 127 page presentation.After reading through their presentation, while we agree with some assertions, we by and large find their assumptions to be excessively optimistic. We focus on the assumptions surrounding Toshiba's operating businesses though Travis Lundy may have thoughts on the capacity to accelerate the buyback as well.Our view on the potential value of Toshiba has not changed much from when we published Toshiba: Gauging the Upside Potential. We feel that an operating margin of about 5% is a reasonable medium-term target for Toshiba to achieve. King Street's 10.6% target for the Toshiba Next Plan (TNP) is far too high in our opinion and even a 7-8% OPM would be a fantastic result for Toshiba as far as we are concerned.We delve into the details below.

Toshiba: King Street Assumptions Look Exceedingly Optimistic

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Fukuoka Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

It has taken some 30 months of waiting, two postponements, the threat of a ‘cease and desist order’ (which would have been the first such order issued by the financial authorities since the end of World War II) and endless negotiations with the Japan Fair Trade Commission (FTC) over anti-monopoly issues, but the merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3712" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3712:1">Fukuoka Financial Group (8354 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11060" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11060:1">Eighteenth Bank (8396 JP)</a> has finally been given the green light by the FTC, creating a formidable banking powerhouse in Kyushu, the southernmost of Japan’s four main islands, with combined assets in excess of ¥23.57 trillion (US$214.3 billion) and thus firmly cementing FFG’s position as the largest regional banking group in Japan.  The banks hope to consummate the merger in April 2019, with Eighteenth Bank ultimately being merged into FFG member Shinwa Bank in April 2020.

It has taken some 30 months of waiting, two postponements, the threat of a ‘cease and desist order’ (which would have been the first such order issued by the financial authorities since the end of World War II) and endless negotiations with the Japan Fair Trade Commission (FTC) over anti-monopoly issues, but the merger between Fukuoka Financial Group (8354 JP) and Eighteenth Bank (8396 JP) has finally been given the green light by the FTC, creating a formidable banking powerhouse in Kyushu, the southernmost of Japan’s four main islands, with combined assets in excess of ¥23.57 trillion (US$214.3 billion) and thus firmly cementing FFG’s position as the largest regional banking group in Japan.  The banks hope to consummate the merger in April 2019, with Eighteenth Bank ultimately being merged into FFG member Shinwa Bank in April 2020.

Fukuoka Financial Group (8354 JP): Southern Comfort

Japan

NEC Corporation manufactures and markets computers, telecommunication equipment, electronic devices, semiconductors, and software.  The Company's products include printers, modems, cellular phones, plasma display panels (PDP), network systems, memory, integrated circuits (IC), thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD), and printed circuit boards (PCB). NEC operates worldwide.

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NEC Corp (6701 JP)

Japan: The Evolution Of (Non-Financial) Market Leadership

28 YEARS OF NON-FINANCIAL MARKET LEADERSHIP - To offer some light relief from the current market, we have compiled a graphic illustrating the...

Campbell Gunn

5G Is Coming – Don’t Panic. Sensible Plans from SoftBank (9984 JP), Docomo (9437 JP), KDDI (9433 JP)

5G sounds great, right? – faster speeds, more capacity, improved efficiency – but what does that really mean? The reality is that 5G isn’t needed...

Nathan Ramler, CFA

Asahi (3333 Jp): I Want to Ride My Bicycle

Life behind bars We believe that Asahi has an interesting secular growth story unrealized by most institutional investors. At a Y37bn market cap,...

David Rubenstein

Toshiba: King Street Assumptions Look Exceedingly Optimistic

Last evening hedge fund King Street addressed Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) in a letter urging quicker implementation of the company's buyback together...

Mio Kato

Fukuoka Financial Group (8354 JP): Southern Comfort

It has taken some 30 months of waiting, two postponements, the threat of a ‘cease and desist order’ (which would have been the first such order...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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52-week Range

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