'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/994/original/Tokyo_Stock_Exchange_logo.png?1601590198" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162994"></figure><p></p><p><strong>FAILOVER FAILURE</strong> - Thursday's unprecedented failure of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's arrowhead trading system developed in co-ordination with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a> is highly embarrassing for the newly-minted administration of Prime Minster Suga who has placed particular emphasis on improving Japan's digital capabilities. Trading will resume this morning as normal at 9 am Japan Time.</p><p><strong>PASSING THE BUCK</strong> - In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall provide a summary of the explanations that were offered by the senior management of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> (JPX) at a 98 minute-long press conference that was held last night. JPX places the 'blame' for this incident squarely on Fujitsu. However, as JPX admitted, Fujitsu is 'just a vendor' and responsibility for the smooth function of the exchange's systems is the responsibility of JPX. We would also note that this is not the first time that the exchange's protocols have failed to failover and that the arrowhead system was upgraded as recently as November 5 2019. At that time the JPX press release stated:-</p><blockquote><p><span>The new version of “arrowhead” uses the existing system as a base for an upgraded technology that offers users the familiar, high speed, high-reliability experience, while delivering even greater convenience. The trading system and transaction services have been improved in order to respond to changes in the business environment and better meet the needs of users, providing stronger overall market functionality.</span></p></blockquote><p></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/995/original/File%202020-10-01%2016%2020%2047.jpeg?1601591437" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162995"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Nikkei</div>

FAILOVER FAILURE - Thursday's unprecedented failure of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's arrowhead trading system developed in co-ordination with Fujitsu (6702 JP) is highly embarrassing for the newly-minted administration of Prime Minster Suga who has placed particular emphasis on improving Japan's digital capabilities. Trading will resume this morning as normal at 9 am Japan Time.PASSING THE BUCK - In the DETAIL section below, we shall provide a summary of the explanations that were offered by the senior management of Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) (JPX) at a 98 minute-long press conference that was held last night. JPX places the 'blame' for this incident squarely on Fujitsu. However, as JPX admitted, Fujitsu is 'just a vendor' and responsibility for the smooth function of the exchange's systems is the responsibility of JPX. We would also note that this is not the first time that the exchange's protocols have failed to failover and that the arrowhead system was upgraded as recently as November 5 2019. At that time the JPX press release stated:-The new version of “arrowhead” uses the existing system as a base for an upgraded technology that offers users the familiar, high speed, high-reliability experience, while delivering even greater convenience. The trading system and transaction services have been improved in order to respond to changes in the business environment and better meet the needs of users, providing stronger overall market functionality.Source: Nikkei

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Fujitsu Fails to Failover > JPX Tries to Pass the Buck

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<p>The explanation supporting NTT’s buyout of Docomo (in Japanese but translated below) is interesting and we believe it supports our initial thoughts on this development. What we didn’t expect was a ¥3,900 tender price.</p>

The explanation supporting NTT’s buyout of Docomo (in Japanese but translated below) is interesting and we believe it supports our initial thoughts on this development. What we didn’t expect was a ¥3,900 tender price.

NTT – NTT Is Going Big and Our Suspicions Are Aroused Further

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR'</strong> - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE</strong> - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS DRIVER</strong> - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

<ul>
<li>On June 25, NEC (Japan's leading producer of telecom equipment) and NTT (9432 JP) (Japan's largest telecom network operator) announced plans for joint R&amp;D and global marketing of 5G and other products incorporating leading edge optical and wireless technologies.</li>
<li>To cement the alliance and support the R&amp;D and marketing, NTT has agreed to invest ¥64.5 billion to acquire a 4.8% stake in NEC. </li>
<li>Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) plans to provide ¥70 billion to NEC, Fujitsu and other Japanese companies to develop 5G equipment and networks.</li>
<li>Also, faced with growing Conservative Party opposition to Huawei, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s UK government is reportedly talking with NEC and considering Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) as alternative suppliers of 5G telecom equipment. NEC and Samsung announced a partnership to develop 5G and IT solutions in October 2018.</li>
<li>Coming on top of extensive restructuring, these developments support our forecast of continued growth in NEC's operating profit through FY Mar-23 and improve the company's longer term prospects.</li>
</ul>


On June 25, NEC (Japan's leading producer of telecom equipment) and NTT (9432 JP) (Japan's largest telecom network operator) announced plans for joint R&amp;D and global marketing of 5G and other products incorporating leading edge optical and wireless technologies.
To cement the alliance and support the R&amp;D and marketing, NTT has agreed to invest ¥64.5 billion to acquire a 4.8% stake in NEC. 
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) plans to provide ¥70 billion to NEC, Fujitsu and other Japanese companies to develop 5G equipment and networks.
Also, faced with growing Conservative Party opposition to Huawei, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s UK government is reportedly talking with NEC and considering Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) as alternative suppliers of 5G telecom equipment. NEC and Samsung announced a partnership to develop 5G and IT solutions in October 2018.
Coming on top of extensive restructuring, these developments support our forecast of continued growth in NEC's operating profit through FY Mar-23 and improve the company's longer term prospects.


NEC (6701 JP): Tie-Up with NTT Raises 5G Profile

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/496/original/2020-06-30_14-16-44.png?1593494217" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143496"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>THE CASH CONVERSION CYCLE</strong> - Net Working Capital is a measure of how efficiently a company manages its short-term assets and liabilities to generate cash and is also known as the Cash Conversion Cycle. In practice, Net Working Capital is scaled by the number of days of Revenue or Cost of Goods Sold that are 'tied' up in three components - Receivables, Inventory, and Payables.</p>
<p><strong>Net Working Capital Days</strong> varies by industry and the lower the number, the better. Amounts over 210 days are excessive, and a sign of business stress.  Net Working Capital is defined as:-</p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>+ Receivables/Revenue </strong>- the average number of days required to collect on sales. Businesses usually extend a degree of credit to non-cash customers.  Receivables Days over 100 are excessive.</li>
<li>
<strong>+ Inventory/Cost of Goods Sold -</strong> the average number of days it takes to sell out of Inventory. Amounts vary widely by industry but days over 210 are excessive.</li>
<li>- <strong>Payables/Cost of Goods Sold -</strong>the average number of days the company takes to settle transactions with suppliers. By extending nominally interest-free credit, suppliers provide operating leverage to a business. A larger negative number is better, but days less than -100 are excessive.</li>
</ul>
<p>The relationship between Receivables and Payables should also be considered particularly where the company is giving more generous credit terms to its customers than it receives from its suppliers. The Cash Conversion Cycle for the aggregate of all non-financial currently-listed Japanese companies has averaged 77 days over the last thirty years. However, over the previous twelve months., a fourteen-day rise in Inventory Days during the last four years has pushed Net Working Capital Days to 93.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/529/original/2020-06-30_15-09-41.png?1593497395" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143529"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/530/original/2020-06-30_15-10-32.png?1593497471" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143530"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<div class="content-caption"></div>
<p><strong>NET WORKING CAPITAL DAYS AS A STRESS TEST</strong> - The correlation between Net Working Capital Days and relative performance varies by company and by Sectors. The examples above show how signals can be heeded -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7117:1" rel="noopener">Nikon (7731 JP)</a>, or ignored - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a> since 2018. (For more on SMC working capital issues, please see my colleague <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s Insight of last year - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smc-6273-jp-getting-in-line-with-reality" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30081" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP): Getting in Line with Reality</a>).   </p>
<p>For this Insight, we have limited our review to larger capitalisation manufacturing companies. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall cover the outliers at both ends of <strong>Receivables Days</strong>, <strong>Inventory Days</strong>, <strong>Payables Days</strong>, and finally <strong>Net Working Capital Days</strong>.</p>


Source • Japan Analytics
THE CASH CONVERSION CYCLE - Net Working Capital is a measure of how efficiently a company manages its short-term assets and liabilities to generate cash and is also known as the Cash Conversion Cycle. In practice, Net Working Capital is scaled by the number of days of Revenue or Cost of Goods Sold that are 'tied' up in three components - Receivables, Inventory, and Payables.
Net Working Capital Days varies by industry and the lower the number, the better. Amounts over 210 days are excessive, and a sign of business stress.  Net Working Capital is defined as:-


+ Receivables/Revenue - the average number of days required to collect on sales. Businesses usually extend a degree of credit to non-cash customers.  Receivables Days over 100 are excessive.

+ Inventory/Cost of Goods Sold - the average number of days it takes to sell out of Inventory. Amounts vary widely by industry but days over 210 are excessive.
- Payables/Cost of Goods Sold -the average number of days the company takes to settle transactions with suppliers. By extending nominally interest-free credit, suppliers provide operating leverage to a business. A larger negative number is better, but days less than -100 are excessive.

The relationship between Receivables and Payables should also be considered particularly where the company is giving more generous credit terms to its customers than it receives from its suppliers. The Cash Conversion Cycle for the aggregate of all non-financial currently-listed Japanese companies has averaged 77 days over the last thirty years. However, over the previous twelve months., a fourteen-day rise in Inventory Days during the last four years has pushed Net Working Capital Days to 93.


Source • Japan Analytics

NET WORKING CAPITAL DAYS AS A STRESS TEST - The correlation between Net Working Capital Days and relative performance varies by company and by Sectors. The examples above show how signals can be heeded -  Nikon (7731 JP), or ignored - SMC (6273 JP) since 2018. (For more on SMC working capital issues, please see my colleague Scott Foster's Insight of last year - SMC (6273 JP): Getting in Line with Reality).   
For this Insight, we have limited our review to larger capitalisation manufacturing companies. In the DETAIL section below, we shall cover the outliers at both ends of Receivables Days, Inventory Days, Payables Days, and finally Net Working Capital Days.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 5: Net Working Capital Outliers

Japan

NEC Corporation manufactures and markets computers, telecommunication equipment, electronic devices, semiconductors, and software.  The Company's products include printers, modems, cellular phones, plasma display panels (PDP), network systems, memory, integrated circuits (IC), thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD), and printed circuit boards (PCB). NEC operates worldwide.

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NEC Corp (6701 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Fujitsu Fails to Failover > JPX Tries to Pass the Buck

FAILOVER FAILURE - Thu

Campbell Gunn

NTT – NTT Is Going Big and Our Suspicions Are Aroused Further

The explanation supporting NTT’s buyout of Docomo (in Japanese but translated below) is interesting and we believe it supports our initial thoughts...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

NEC (6701 JP): Tie-Up with NTT Raises 5G Profile

On June 25, NEC (Japan's leading producer of telecom equipment) and NTT (9432 JP) (Japan's largest telecom network operator) announced plans for...

Scott Foster

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 5: Net Working Capital Outliers

THE CASH CONVERSION CYCLE - Net Working Capital is a measure of how efficiently a company manages its short-term assets and liabilities to...

Campbell Gunn

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