European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a> surprised the market by announcing its division into two listed companies: one for regulated network assets, and the other for liberalised businesses (generation &amp; commercialisation/marketing).</li>
<li>Naturgy is trading at 10.1x EV/2021a EBITDA and at a demanding 21.9x P/E, higher than Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)'s 16.3x and Endesa SA (ELE SM)'s 11.5x.</li>
<li>Strategies: pair trades long REE SM/short NTGY SM or long ENG SM/short NTGY SM. Risk: this strategy assumes that both CriteriaCaixa and IFM will stop acquiring shares of Naturgy.</li>
</ul>



Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) surprised the market by announcing its division into two listed companies: one for regulated network assets, and the other for liberalised businesses (generation &amp; commercialisation/marketing).
Naturgy is trading at 10.1x EV/2021a EBITDA and at a demanding 21.9x P/E, higher than Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)'s 16.3x and Endesa SA (ELE SM)'s 11.5x.
Strategies: pair trades long REE SM/short NTGY SM or long ENG SM/short NTGY SM. Risk: this strategy assumes that both CriteriaCaixa and IFM will stop acquiring shares of Naturgy.


Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is just one DLC in this report, Rio Tinto, following the unification of BHP and Shell.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 41.3%; GBL, 26.9%; Heineken Holdings, 18.2%; Industrivärden, 12.1%; Investor AB, 11.6%; Kinnevik B, 8.8%(premium); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.2%.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets, Investor vs. listed assets, Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto.</li>
</ul>


There is just one DLC in this report, Rio Tinto, following the unification of BHP and Shell.
Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 41.3%; GBL, 26.9%; Heineken Holdings, 18.2%; Industrivärden, 12.1%; Investor AB, 11.6%; Kinnevik B, 8.8%(premium); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.2%.
Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets, Investor vs. listed assets, Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: January ‘22 Report

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 1.3%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 9.9% (widened); Shell, nil premium.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 42.7%; GBL, 30%; Heineken Holdings, 17.9%; Industrivärden, 14.4%; Investor AB, 7.5%; Kinnevik B, 22.4% (premium).</li>
<li>Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.</li>
</ul>


Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 1.3%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 9.9% (widened); Shell, nil premium.
Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 42.7%; GBL, 30%; Heineken Holdings, 17.9%; Industrivärden, 14.4%; Investor AB, 7.5%; Kinnevik B, 22.4% (premium).
Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: December '21 Report

<ul>
<li>Since the closing of IFM's partial takeover offer, the share price of Naturgy has climbed to new highs, contrary to what logic would have stated.</li>
<li>IFM has bought over 1% of Naturgy from a reduced free float, and it now holds 12.04% (vs. 10.8% at the offer closing). That stake is worth €3.4 billion.</li>
<li>Buying pressure from both IFM and La Caixa and maybe some shorts closing are likely to extend the share price gains.</li>
</ul>


Since the closing of IFM's partial takeover offer, the share price of Naturgy has climbed to new highs, contrary to what logic would have stated.
IFM has bought over 1% of Naturgy from a reduced free float, and it now holds 12.04% (vs. 10.8% at the offer closing). That stake is worth €3.4 billion.
Buying pressure from both IFM and La Caixa and maybe some shorts closing are likely to extend the share price gains.


<ul>
<li>Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during November, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 2.1%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 8.6%; Shell, nil premium.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV for European holdcos have generally widened during November, following market volatility: Alba, 42.2%; GBL 30.5%; Heineken Holdings 16.4%; Industrivärden, 13.1%; Investor, 12%; Kinnevik B, 19.8% (premium).</li>
<li>Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.</li>
</ul>


Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during November, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 2.1%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 8.6%; Shell, nil premium.
Discounts to NAV for European holdcos have generally widened during November, following market volatility: Alba, 42.2%; GBL 30.5%; Heineken Holdings 16.4%; Industrivärden, 13.1%; Investor, 12%; Kinnevik B, 19.8% (premium).
Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: November Report

Spain

Naturgy Energy Group S.A. distributes natural gas. The Company operates gas storage facilities, as well as owns and operates a fiber optic backbone telecommunications networks. Naturgy Energy Group also markets energy management products, household gas appliances, and installs gas heating systems. Naturgy Energy serves clients worldwide.

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Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)

Demerger Plans for Naturgy

The demerger does not represent much upside potential in my view, other than paving the way for future corporate operations. Naturgy seems...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: January ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of selected holdings have not shown a clear trend in January. Now there is just one DLC in this report, Rio Tinto, following the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: December '21 Report

Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December. Discount to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed trends.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

IFM/Naturgy: Surprising Offer Epilogue

Buying pressure from both IFM and La Caixa and maybe some shorts closing on a reduced free float could extend Naturgy's highs. IFM wanted initially...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: November Report

Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during November whilst discounts to NAV for selected European have generally widened.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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