Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side data this week.</li><li>Instead, we will have a look at some of the most important indicators in the Energy space as oil markets have left blood on the streets lately, leading Saudi Arabia to once again “call out” short sellers.</li><li><p>Is there a fundamental downturn in demand or is this recent trend in oil once again driven by the positioning of paper markets?</p></li></ul>

We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side data this week.Instead, we will have a look at some of the most important indicators in the Energy space as oil markets have left blood on the streets lately, leading Saudi Arabia to once again “call out” short sellers.Is there a fundamental downturn in demand or is this recent trend in oil once again driven by the positioning of paper markets?

Energy Watch: The perfect bull-signal delivered by Olaf Scholz?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul>
<li>Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.</li>
<li>We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.</li>
<li>We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.</li>
</ul>


Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.
We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.
We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.


Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.</li><li>Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.</li><li>If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.</li><li>The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.</li><li>That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

Energy Watch: The perfect bull-signal delivered by Olaf Scholz?

We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord

Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel. We envisage a...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)