Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Key takeaways: Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially)</li>
<li>No signs of actual weak gasoline demand</li>
<li>New sanctions on Russia and Iran on the cards?</li>
</ul>


Key takeaways: Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially)
No signs of actual weak gasoline demand
New sanctions on Russia and Iran on the cards?


Energy Cable #43: Price Resilience Despite Warm Weather

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

<ul><li>Horrid scenes and continued unrest in the Middle East with major oil producing nations perhaps getting involved.</li><li>What are the probable implications for oil, and how about natural gas given the winter ahead and Europe’s dependence?</li><li>Take aways: Things are setting up for explosiveness in European gas marketsMBS plays a key role with regards to the direction of oilBefore we dig in to our analysis, we would like to turn the reader’s attention to our energy cable from last week, where we questioned the drop in implied gasoline demand in the US and provocatively asked ourselves what the New Yorkers were using as fuel if not gasoline.</li></ul>

Horrid scenes and continued unrest in the Middle East with major oil producing nations perhaps getting involved.What are the probable implications for oil, and how about natural gas given the winter ahead and Europe’s dependence?Take aways: Things are setting up for explosiveness in European gas marketsMBS plays a key role with regards to the direction of oilBefore we dig in to our analysis, we would like to turn the reader’s attention to our energy cable from last week, where we questioned the drop in implied gasoline demand in the US and provocatively asked ourselves what the New Yorkers were using as fuel if not gasoline.

The Energy Cable #42 – Quiet Self-Gratulation and Then onto Natural Gas and Crude Oil

<ul><li>We have recently witnessed a minor surprise in both Swedish and US inflation rates.</li><li>With the UK next in line, it seems appropriate to take a brief look at the state of the UK economy.</li><li>To put it bluntly, there’s no easy way to spin it—things are looking rather bleak.</li></ul>

We have recently witnessed a minor surprise in both Swedish and US inflation rates.With the UK next in line, it seems appropriate to take a brief look at the state of the UK economy.To put it bluntly, there’s no easy way to spin it—things are looking rather bleak.

Macro Nugget: Is the UK Prepared for the Winter?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We have now formalized our recession call for Q1-2024 (in the US) as we have patiently waited all year and called for better than feared performance in the US economy.</li><li>Interestingly, we see a diverging path for Manufacturing and Services ahead short-term, which will likely wrongfoot many economists and traders.</li><li>Manufacturing is currently restocking, while services are on the decline.</li></ul>

We have now formalized our recession call for Q1-2024 (in the US) as we have patiently waited all year and called for better than feared performance in the US economy.Interestingly, we see a diverging path for Manufacturing and Services ahead short-term, which will likely wrongfoot many economists and traders.Manufacturing is currently restocking, while services are on the decline.

Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Energy Cable #43: Price Resilience Despite Warm Weather

Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially), and there are no signs of actual weak...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

The Energy Cable #42 – Quiet Self-Gratulation and Then onto Natural Gas and Crude Oil

Horrid scenes and continued unrest in the Middle East with major oil producing nations perhaps getting involved. What are the probable...

Steno Research

Macro Nugget: Is the UK Prepared for the Winter?

We have recently witnessed a minor surprise in both Swedish and US inflation rates. With the UK next in line, it seems appropriate to take a brief...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

Happy Sunday everyone and welcome to our flagship editorial!I will keep it short and sweet this week on my way to Mallorca! We have now formalized...

Steno Research

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