Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Take aways: Another green week for natural gas. Bullish demand/supply outlook for crude. Seasonality will now be working in favor of crude. Israel Hamas-Ceasefire a little less impactful for crude now.</li><li>Before we get to the OPEC supply cuts and crude, we would like to address our natural gas position from a couple of weeks ago.</li><li>Our timing has been very fortunate with the position, as the market realized that we were trading too low. As we predicted, the low prices act as a natural constraint on supply as seen most recently by EQT Corp.</li></ul>

Take aways: Another green week for natural gas. Bullish demand/supply outlook for crude. Seasonality will now be working in favor of crude. Israel Hamas-Ceasefire a little less impactful for crude now.Before we get to the OPEC supply cuts and crude, we would like to address our natural gas position from a couple of weeks ago.Our timing has been very fortunate with the position, as the market realized that we were trading too low. As we predicted, the low prices act as a natural constraint on supply as seen most recently by EQT Corp.

Energy Cable #59: More fuel for energy bulls?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The hopes of a March cut are long gone, but the ECB meeting will be interesting to watch nonetheless.</li><li>The ECB has been dovishly surprised on right about every single measurable parameter since the December meeting, which will likely make its impact at the March meeting.</li><li>HICP assumptions for Q1 averaged at 2.9% with the actual prints in January and February coming in at 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.</li></ul>

The hopes of a March cut are long gone, but the ECB meeting will be interesting to watch nonetheless.The ECB has been dovishly surprised on right about every single measurable parameter since the December meeting, which will likely make its impact at the March meeting.HICP assumptions for Q1 averaged at 2.9% with the actual prints in January and February coming in at 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.

ECB Watch: A scope for a decent dovish surprise

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.</li><li>The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.</li><li>The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

<ul><li>Hi everybody and welcome to this week’s 5 Things We Watch.</li><li>This week we’ll cover Euro-flation on the back of the Ifo numbers dropping this week.</li><li>Then we’ll have a look at the inflation outlook in the US using the same metrics as applied to Europe.</li></ul>

Hi everybody and welcome to this week’s 5 Things We Watch.This week we’ll cover Euro-flation on the back of the Ifo numbers dropping this week.Then we’ll have a look at the inflation outlook in the US using the same metrics as applied to Europe.

5 Things We Watch: US & Europe inflation, OPEC, Shipping, Bitcoin boom

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Energy Cable #59: More fuel for energy bulls?

Take aways: Another green week for natural gasBullish demand/supply outlook for crudeSeasonality will now be working in favor of crudeIsrael...

Steno Research

ECB Watch: A scope for a decent dovish surprise

The hopes of a March cut are long gone, but the ECB meeting will be interesting to watch nonetheless. The ECB has been dovishly surprised on right...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial. The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: US & Europe inflation, OPEC, Shipping, Bitcoin boom

Hi everybody and welcome to this week’s 5 Things We Watch. This week we’ll cover Euro-flation on the back of the Ifo numbers dropping this...

Steno Research

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