Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ SOUTH KOREA: Strategic downgrade on Kospi from overweight to neutral ( Note that Kospi has broken key support at 270 as well.) ⦁ JAPAN: Nikkei 225 long term outperformance in progress. ⦁ HONG KONG: HSI strategic view remains "Neutral" due to mixed elements. ⦁ CHINA: HSCEI strategic view remains "Neutral", awaiting elements/signals. ⦁ AUSTRALIA: ASX 200 outperformance still valid. ⦁ TAIWAN: TWSE/MXAP in sideways/range. Neutral at the moment. ⦁ INDIA: NIFTY/MXAP shows mixed elements. Neutral India for now. Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Downgrade Korea (KOSPI 200), Taiwan (TWSE) from “Hold” to “Decrease Exposure” as respective Ratios vs MXAP are below tactical resistances. ⦁ Maintain “Increase Exposure” for Japan (Nikkei), Australia (ASX) and still a “Hold” for Hong Kong (HSI), China (HSCEI) and India (Nifty).

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ SOUTH KOREA: Strategic downgrade on Kospi from overweight to neutral ( Note that Kospi has broken key support at 270 as well.) ⦁ JAPAN: Nikkei 225 long term outperformance in progress. ⦁ HONG KONG: HSI strategic view remains "Neutral" due to mixed elements. ⦁ CHINA: HSCEI strategic view remains "Neutral", awaiting elements/signals. ⦁ AUSTRALIA: ASX 200 outperformance still valid. ⦁ TAIWAN: TWSE/MXAP in sideways/range. Neutral at the moment. ⦁ INDIA: NIFTY/MXAP shows mixed elements. Neutral India for now. Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Downgrade Korea (KOSPI 200), Taiwan (TWSE) from “Hold” to “Decrease Exposure” as respective Ratios vs MXAP are below tactical resistances. ⦁ Maintain “Increase Exposure” for Japan (Nikkei), Australia (ASX) and still a “Hold” for Hong Kong (HSI), China (HSCEI) and India (Nifty).

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In a change of strategy from the Central Government on how to raise money through PSUs, there is an increased possibility that buybacks could become the preferred option over disinvestment because of not-so-good market conditions and consistent underperformance of PSUs over some time. While a large and 'at premium' buyback by PSUs could temporarily help the stock price, the support is unlikely to last long. There is a negative impact on balance sheet health, less money available post buyback for growth plans and questionable timing. The share buyback will not really do much to address the medium and long term underperformance of PSU stocks unless fundamental issues are resolved.

In a change of strategy from the Central Government on how to raise money through PSUs, there is an increased possibility that buybacks could become the preferred option over disinvestment because of not-so-good market conditions and consistent underperformance of PSUs over some time. While a large and 'at premium' buyback by PSUs could temporarily help the stock price, the support is unlikely to last long. There is a negative impact on balance sheet health, less money available post buyback for growth plans and questionable timing. The share buyback will not really do much to address the medium and long term underperformance of PSU stocks unless fundamental issues are resolved.

India: Share Buyback Could Be Positive for PSUs, but It Will Only Be a Temporary Relief

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs. MSCI EM), we see these trends continuing well into 2018.  Elsewhere, Russia is on the cusp of a breakout. The Philippines is breaking out. And Korea, a market that broke out earlier this year from a 6-year base, is a buy on weakness.  Today’s report includes a complete summary of our EM views as well as a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs. MSCI EM), we see these trends continuing well into 2018.  Elsewhere, Russia is on the cusp of a breakout. The Philippines is breaking out. And Korea, a market that broke out earlier this year from a 6-year base, is a buy on weakness.  Today’s report includes a complete summary of our EM views as well as a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

<h2>Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only?</h2>In our recent insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/george-orwell-s-animal-farm-and-india-s-economy-politics-has-nda-started-to-look-like-upa-only" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13938">George Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’ and India’s Economy &amp; Politics - Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only</a>, we had spoken about how the NDA has started to look like UPA on several key parameters. We highlighted:<ul><li>There are some visible differences between NDA (BJP, Narendra Modi) which is in power currently in India and the earlier UPA government (Congress, Sonia Gandhi/Manmohan Singh). For example: BJP is politically much more powerful than…</li></ul>

Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only?In our recent insight George Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’ and India’s Economy &amp; Politics - Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only, we had spoken about how the NDA has started to look like UPA on several key parameters. We highlighted:There are some visible differences between NDA (BJP, Narendra Modi) which is in power currently in India and the earlier UPA government (Congress, Sonia Gandhi/Manmohan Singh). For example: BJP is politically much more powerful than…

Appointment of Independent Directors in PSUs - Role of Competency And Role of Political Influence

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

BBSP Asia Weekly Equity Book

THE MAIN IDEA(Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms⦁ SOUTH KOREA:...

BBSP Asia

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs....

Vermilion Research

Appointment of Independent Directors in PSUs - Role of Competency And Role of Political Influence

Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only?In our recent insight George Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’ and India’s Economy & Politics - Has NDA Started to...

Pankaj Sharma

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

BBSP Asia Weekly Equity Book

THE MAIN IDEA(Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms⦁ SOUTH KOREA:...

BBSP Asia

India: Share Buyback Could Be Positive for PSUs, but It Will Only Be a Temporary Relief

In a change of strategy from the Central Government on how to raise money through PSUs, there is an increased possibility that buybacks could...

Pankaj Sharma

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs....

Vermilion Research

Appointment of Independent Directors in PSUs - Role of Competency And Role of Political Influence

Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only?In our recent insight George Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’ and India’s Economy & Politics - Has NDA Started to...

Pankaj Sharma

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors