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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Headline Developments</h2>Steam, the video game distribution platform owned by Valve (private) , has released the long-rumoured handheld gaming device the Steam Deck; available from December (although big delays are expected with the premium $649 512GB version not available until 3Q22!).

Headline DevelopmentsSteam, the video game distribution platform owned by Valve (private) , has released the long-rumoured handheld gaming device the Steam Deck; available from December (although big delays are expected with the premium $649 512GB version not available until 3Q22!).

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

We see those big numbers in the press, almost daily it seems. About ESG assets under management (AUM) reaching US$40 trillion, expected to hit US$53 trillion by 2025. Or about quarterly ESG fund flows nearing US$100 billion, and the seismic shift in ESG AUM to passively-managed funds.Recent growth in SRI (sustainable and responsible investing) and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) assets and investment products would not be possible without the growing ecosystem of index providers, and the SRI/ESG indices and benchmarks that they create.The ongoing boom in SRI/ESG indexing, which shows no signs of slowing, creates new opportunies for investors – and I do not mean investing in indexed mutual funds or ETFs. Too obvious, and too retail. I am referring to emergent opportunities associated with SRI/ESG index arbitrage.Index rebalancing/reconstitution events often create windows of abnormal returns for constituents being re-weighted, added, or dropped. That much is obvious, and the effects of broad market index changes are well-known. For SRI/ESG indices, this is uncharted territory with huge potential.This Smartkarma Original looks at the evolving SRI/ESG indexing landscape, and more importantly the emergent investing (e.g., stocks of listed indexers) and trading (e.g., arbitraging index changes) strategies arising from this global boom in SRI/ESG indices... from an Original perspective.<h2>WHAT'S ORIGINAL?</h2>Typically, discussions about SRI/ESG indices focus on their performance and in the context of that age-old "ESG-Alpha" debate – i.e., whether incorporating ESG factors into the investment process is worth the effort. To be clear, that is an important debate to have (and win). However, this report takes a different angle on SRI/ESG indices by focusing on investing and trading and strategies that capitalise on the boom in SRI/ESG indices. Theory (and a little speculation) backed by analysis.

We see those big numbers in the press, almost daily it seems. About ESG assets under management (AUM) reaching US$40 trillion, expected to hit US$53 trillion by 2025. Or about quarterly ESG fund flows nearing US$100 billion, and the seismic shift in ESG AUM to passively-managed funds.Recent growth in SRI (sustainable and responsible investing) and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) assets and investment products would not be possible without the growing ecosystem of index providers, and the SRI/ESG indices and benchmarks that they create.The ongoing boom in SRI/ESG indexing, which shows no signs of slowing, creates new opportunies for investors – and I do not mean investing in indexed mutual funds or ETFs. Too obvious, and too retail. I am referring to emergent opportunities associated with SRI/ESG index arbitrage.Index rebalancing/reconstitution events often create windows of abnormal returns for constituents being re-weighted, added, or dropped. That much is obvious, and the effects of broad market index changes are well-known. For SRI/ESG indices, this is uncharted territory with huge potential.This Smartkarma Original looks at the evolving SRI/ESG indexing landscape, and more importantly the emergent investing (e.g., stocks of listed indexers) and trading (e.g., arbitraging index changes) strategies arising from this global boom in SRI/ESG indices... from an Original perspective.WHAT'S ORIGINAL?Typically, discussions about SRI/ESG indices focus on their performance and in the context of that age-old "ESG-Alpha" debate – i.e., whether incorporating ESG factors into the investment process is worth the effort. To be clear, that is an important debate to have (and win). However, this report takes a different angle on SRI/ESG indices by focusing on investing and trading and strategies that capitalise on the boom in SRI/ESG indices. Theory (and a little speculation) backed by analysis.

Sustainability and ESG Indices: A Booming Ecosystem and New Investing and Trading Opportunities

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Coinbase Global  / Equity Capital Markets

Our valuation analysis suggests a range of $31.9 billion to $47.9 billion in market cap for Coinbase. Our base case valuation of Coinbase is $39.9 billion, which is nearly 5x the value the company received in October 2018 ($8 billion) in private funding transaction. However, our base case value of $39.9 billion is nearly 60% lower than the purported recent private market value of <a href="https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$100 billion</a> that Coinbase received recently.
Overall, at an implied market cap value of $100 billion for Coinbase, we think that there is much larger potential downside risk than upside appreciation. As such, we think that the prudent investor should avoid this direct listing of Coinbase if indeed it is priced at nearly $100 billion.

Our valuation analysis suggests a range of $31.9 billion to $47.9 billion in market cap for Coinbase. Our base case valuation of Coinbase is $39.9 billion, which is nearly 5x the value the company received in October 2018 ($8 billion) in private funding transaction. However, our base case value of $39.9 billion is nearly 60% lower than the purported recent private market value of $100 billion that Coinbase received recently.
Overall, at an implied market cap value of $100 billion for Coinbase, we think that there is much larger potential downside risk than upside appreciation. As such, we think that the prudent investor should avoid this direct listing of Coinbase if indeed it is priced at nearly $100 billion. 

Coinbase Direct Listing Valuation Analysis

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> share price and Hong Kong market in general have tumbled significantly after Hong Kong government revealed the proposal to increase stamp duty on stock to 13bps from 10bps for both buy and sell transaction. The change needs to be approved by the HK Legislative Council and enacted as a law for it to be effective. We believe the real impact of stamp duty is at least 6 month away. And the increase of stock stamp duty could effectively alleviate the budget pressure at Hong Kong government due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. </li>
<li>HKEx serves as the only offshore gateway to China capital market. HKEx has consistently enjoyed the superior margin and profitability, given that it can charge higher trading fee rates than other bourses. Chinese companies and investors prefer HKEx as the offshore trading venue. We don't expect this dynamic will change. In our view, HKEx for Chinese ADR listing and expanding business into lucrative derivative trading would be the game changer.  Although the higher stamp duty could moderately increase trading cost, the impact on trading volume will be small. We believe the market has over-reacted in the sell-off. On the contrary, the multi-year strategic transformation of HKEx would be much larger earning driver for upside. We recommend investors to buy HKEx during the pull-back.
</li>
<li>HKEx also reported 4Q20 net income of HK$2,925mn, up 48% year-over-year. FY20 net income of HK$11,505mn is up 23% year-over-year. Both results are above investors' expectation. The beat was largely driven by investment income, partly offset by higher depreciation. HKEX (388 HK) January ADT (Average Daily Turnover) remains very strong, delivering amazing 136% year-over-year growth in the month. We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (Hong Kong and Stock Connect Northbound) and reiterate HKEx TP HKD 550. 
</li>
</ul>



HKEX (388 HK) share price and Hong Kong market in general have tumbled significantly after Hong Kong government revealed the proposal to increase stamp duty on stock to 13bps from 10bps for both buy and sell transaction. The change needs to be approved by the HK Legislative Council and enacted as a law for it to be effective. We believe the real impact of stamp duty is at least 6 month away. And the increase of stock stamp duty could effectively alleviate the budget pressure at Hong Kong government due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. 
HKEx serves as the only offshore gateway to China capital market. HKEx has consistently enjoyed the superior margin and profitability, given that it can charge higher trading fee rates than other bourses. Chinese companies and investors prefer HKEx as the offshore trading venue. We don't expect this dynamic will change. In our view, HKEx for Chinese ADR listing and expanding business into lucrative derivative trading would be the game changer.  Although the higher stamp duty could moderately increase trading cost, the impact on trading volume will be small. We believe the market has over-reacted in the sell-off. On the contrary, the multi-year strategic transformation of HKEx would be much larger earning driver for upside. We recommend investors to buy HKEx during the pull-back.

HKEx also reported 4Q20 net income of HK$2,925mn, up 48% year-over-year. FY20 net income of HK$11,505mn is up 23% year-over-year. Both results are above investors' expectation. The beat was largely driven by investment income, partly offset by higher depreciation. HKEX (388 HK) January ADT (Average Daily Turnover) remains very strong, delivering amazing 136% year-over-year growth in the month. We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (Hong Kong and Stock Connect Northbound) and reiterate HKEx TP HKD 550. 



HKEx(388.HK): Transformational Strategy Should Offset the Higher Stamp Duty Fear

Last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange (SGX SP)</a> made a momentous <a href="https://www.sgx.com/media-centre/20201215-sgx-strengthens-commitment-sustainability-s20-million-plan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> in the sphere of Asian sustainable/ESG finance and investing. <a href="https://first.sgx.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SGX FIRST</a> is its new multi-partner sustainability initiative. The acronym, FIRST, is for "Future in Reshaping Sustainability Together," but it says so much more.SGX FIRST, puts SGX first, in the ranks of Asia's most sustainable stock exchanges.This is different. SGX FIRST is a well-conceived, high-level, strategic sustainability initiative on an entirely different plane than the many "platform" launches of late. It is indeed part platform, but to view it as only that misses its essence entirely. SGX FIRST stands out in three interrelated ways:<ol>
<li>
Intelligent: Unlike "me-too" ESG portals, SGX FIRST is an integrated strategic plan leveraging existing strengths, products, and relationships. It's making progress, not even a week out.</li>
<li>
Impactful: Intelligent design and synergies-galore should translate into real impact; the ability for SGX FIRST to foster and shape sustainable capital markets in Singapore, and APAC.</li>
<li>
Profitable: Yet to be seen, but likely. This is the stuff of virtuous cycles, from establishing ESG domain authority to licensing fees and other incomes. Altruistic capitalism, but capitalism.</li>
</ol>In this game of ESG "platforms," SGX is playing chess, whilst others chew on checkers.In light of pandemic-induced hard times for SGX, this may be what the doctor ordered.

Last week, Singapore Exchange (SGX SP) made a momentous announcement in the sphere of Asian sustainable/ESG finance and investing. SGX FIRST is its new multi-partner sustainability initiative. The acronym, FIRST, is for "Future in Reshaping Sustainability Together," but it says so much more.SGX FIRST, puts SGX first, in the ranks of Asia's most sustainable stock exchanges.This is different. SGX FIRST is a well-conceived, high-level, strategic sustainability initiative on an entirely different plane than the many "platform" launches of late. It is indeed part platform, but to view it as only that misses its essence entirely. SGX FIRST stands out in three interrelated ways:

Intelligent: Unlike "me-too" ESG portals, SGX FIRST is an integrated strategic plan leveraging existing strengths, products, and relationships. It's making progress, not even a week out.

Impactful: Intelligent design and synergies-galore should translate into real impact; the ability for SGX FIRST to foster and shape sustainable capital markets in Singapore, and APAC.

Profitable: Yet to be seen, but likely. This is the stuff of virtuous cycles, from establishing ESG domain authority to licensing fees and other incomes. Altruistic capitalism, but capitalism.
In this game of ESG "platforms," SGX is playing chess, whilst others chew on checkers.In light of pandemic-induced hard times for SGX, this may be what the doctor ordered.

SGX FIRST Puts SGX First in the Ranks of Asia's Most Sustainable Stock Exchanges

United States

Nasdaq, Inc. operates a global stock exchange. The Company provides trading, clearing, exchange technology, regulatory, securities listing, and information services. Nasdaq offers its services worldwide.

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Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #41

Headline Developments: Steam , the video game distribution platform owned by Valve (private), has released the long-rumoured handheld gaming device...

Granite Bay Capital

Sustainability and ESG Indices: A Booming Ecosystem and New Investing and Trading Opportunities

Index rebalancing and reconstitution often creates a window of abnormal returns (and opportunity). For broad market indices, these effects are well...

Kyle Rudden

Coinbase Direct Listing Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Coinbase is $39.9 billion, which is 60% lower than the purported recent private market value of $100 billion that...

Douglas Kim

HKEx(388.HK): Transformational Strategy Should Offset the Higher Stamp Duty Fear

HKEx serves as the only offshore gateway to China capital market. We believe the market has over-reacted on higher stamp duty news in the sell...

Roger Xie

SGX FIRST Puts SGX First in the Ranks of Asia's Most Sustainable Stock Exchanges

"What's in a name? "asked Shakespeare. Quite a lot, when the name "SGX FIRST." FIRST is an acronym, but it also makes a bold statement; that SGX is...

Kyle Rudden

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