Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.</li>
<li>Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.
Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.


NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) - Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

Microstrategy Inc Cl A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>TSS or "Trend Sustainability Score" is our proprietary momentum based tactical methodology. TSS has a proven record of identifying the exhaustion points in interim trends. </li>
<li>On 17 February 2023 TSS identified exhaustion in the MSTR US uptrend and targeted a minimum 10% reversal in 1-2 weeks.</li>
<li>On 24 February 2023 MSTR US completed a 12.4% reversal from 284.03 to 248.87.</li>
</ul>


TSS or "Trend Sustainability Score" is our proprietary momentum based tactical methodology. TSS has a proven record of identifying the exhaustion points in interim trends. 
On 17 February 2023 TSS identified exhaustion in the MSTR US uptrend and targeted a minimum 10% reversal in 1-2 weeks.
On 24 February 2023 MSTR US completed a 12.4% reversal from 284.03 to 248.87.


MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This upcoming week, stock market and business news is anticipated to be dominated by the U.S. Federal Reserve and global central banks racing to hike interest rates in coordinated fashion in attempts to constrain demand and reel in inflation back to central bank target levels. </li>
<li>Already, Wall St. Journal reported and Fed “whisperer” Nick Timiraos has indicated that yet another outsized interest rate hike of 75bps appears to be on the way as the Fed plays catch up to the 2 year Treasury yield. </li>
<li>Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference commentary on Wednesday will again be scrutinized for any hints of the Fed’s plans to either slow or stop the pace of the current monetary policy tightening cycle.</li>
</ul>


This upcoming week, stock market and business news is anticipated to be dominated by the U.S. Federal Reserve and global central banks racing to hike interest rates in coordinated fashion in attempts to constrain demand and reel in inflation back to central bank target levels. 
Already, Wall St. Journal reported and Fed “whisperer” Nick Timiraos has indicated that yet another outsized interest rate hike of 75bps appears to be on the way as the Fed plays catch up to the 2 year Treasury yield. 
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference commentary on Wednesday will again be scrutinized for any hints of the Fed’s plans to either slow or stop the pace of the current monetary policy tightening cycle.


As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the world off guard. We believe the reactions are likely just a flash in the pan. This tweet, like many others, should be taken as nothing more than negotiation tactics lifted right out of a chapter from “The Art of the Deal”. We have been subjected to untold Tweets in the last few years and the reactions generally seem to have been about as long-lived as their character count. Despite the noise, the markets remain on a firm footing.  In our Macro Vision publication, we lay out our U.S. equity investment thesis and provide a technical appraisal of the market Sector by Sector, along with attractive investment opportunities within each.

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the world off guard. We believe the reactions are likely just a flash in the pan. This tweet, like many others, should be taken as nothing more than negotiation tactics lifted right out of a chapter from “The Art of the Deal”. We have been subjected to untold Tweets in the last few years and the reactions generally seem to have been about as long-lived as their character count. Despite the noise, the markets remain on a firm footing.  In our Macro Vision publication, we lay out our U.S. equity investment thesis and provide a technical appraisal of the market Sector by Sector, along with attractive investment opportunities within each.

U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

United States

The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

NASDAQ Composite Index (CCMP INDEX)

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) - Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 9/19

This upcoming week, stock market and business news is anticipated to be dominated by the U.S. Federal Reserve and global central banks racing to...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the...

Vermilion Research