Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all.</li>
<li>This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas.</li>
<li>We were stopped out of our long position in shipping in February due to false reports on a deal with the Houthis that sent the market tanking.</li>
</ul>


Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all.
This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas.
We were stopped out of our long position in shipping in February due to false reports on a deal with the Houthis that sent the market tanking.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sirius-xm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1374:1" rel="noopener">Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 21 June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy just over US$500m of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> while the estimated selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sirius-xm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1374:1" rel="noopener">Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US)</a> is smaller.</li>
<li>There could be passive selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>, but this will be a lot smaller than the expected buying from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> ETF.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) will replace Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US) in the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) after the close of trading on 21 June.
Passive trackers will need to buy just over US$500m of ARM Holdings (ARM US) while the estimated selling in Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US) is smaller.
There could be passive selling in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), but this will be a lot smaller than the expected buying from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Arm Holdings Replaces Sirius XM

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.</li>
<li>False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.</li>
<li>IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.
False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.
IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.


Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>U.S. Tech Lobby opposes India's antitrust law, fearing cost hikes and investment hurdles.</li>
<li>Apple's China iPhone shipments surge 52% in May, driven by discounts and sales preparation.</li>
<li>Nasdaq 100 Futures rise on Apple's China surge, but global markets remain cautious.</li>
</ul>


U.S. Tech Lobby opposes India's antitrust law, fearing cost hikes and investment hurdles.
Apple's China iPhone shipments surge 52% in May, driven by discounts and sales preparation.
Nasdaq 100 Futures rise on Apple's China surge, but global markets remain cautious.


#6Business Buzz: Tech Giants Clash in India, Apple Triumphs in China, Nasdaq Rises

<ul>
<li>The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs</li>
<li>All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.</li>
</ul>


The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.


New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Energy Cable: Short shipping companies?

Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all. This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas. We were...

Steno Research

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Arm Holdings Replaces Sirius XM

Arm Holdings will replace Sirius XM in the Nasdaq100 at the close on 21 June. There is positioning in both stocks and some of that was likely...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

#6Business Buzz: Tech Giants Clash in India, Apple Triumphs in China, Nasdaq Rises

U.S. Tech Lobby wary of India's antitrust law; Apple's China iPhone shipments surge, Malaysia investment in Semiconductor

Nimish Maheshwari

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook $SPX $QQQ $DJI; Risk-On Signals Abound. Three SPX upside gaps in May signals bulls firmly in...

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: Short shipping companies?

Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all. This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas. We were...

Steno Research

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Arm Holdings Replaces Sirius XM

Arm Holdings will replace Sirius XM in the Nasdaq100 at the close on 21 June. There is positioning in both stocks and some of that was likely...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

​The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

#6Business Buzz: Tech Giants Clash in India, Apple Triumphs in China, Nasdaq Rises

​U.S. Tech Lobby wary of India's antitrust law; Apple's China iPhone shipments surge, Malaysia investment in Semiconductor

Nimish Maheshwari

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook $SPX $QQQ $DJI; Risk-On Signals Abound. Three SPX upside gaps in May signals bulls firmly in...

Vermilion Research

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

U.S. Tech Lobby wary of India's antitrust law; Apple's China iPhone shipments surge, Malaysia investment in Semiconductor