Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

This Week in a nutshell... INDICES - In the current correction, 20500 Nikkei, 2600 S&amp;P are the levels/supports to watch for an intermediate reaction, else further direct drop to trend pivots (20000 Nikkei, and 2515/2460 S&amp;P) - ASX reacted off the trend pivot at 5570. Further bounce is expected. - Whilst HSI and HSCEI still under pressure below 26000/26200 and 10400/10500 respectively. - TW SE and Kospi confirmed further drop. FIXED INCOMEMixed bag. Intermediate rebound/limited upside. 119.14/119.16 even 120.05 on TNote10, 97.54 AGB10, 151.20 JGB. FOREX - Bearish USD vs DXY, CHF, Commos and EM Asia. Watch for surpassing of 1.1450 resistance on EURUSD to confirm a new rise. - JPY mixed bag.

This Week in a nutshell... INDICES - In the current correction, 20500 Nikkei, 2600 S&amp;P are the levels/supports to watch for an intermediate reaction, else further direct drop to trend pivots (20000 Nikkei, and 2515/2460 S&amp;P) - ASX reacted off the trend pivot at 5570. Further bounce is expected. - Whilst HSI and HSCEI still under pressure below 26000/26200 and 10400/10500 respectively. - TW SE and Kospi confirmed further drop. FIXED INCOMEMixed bag. Intermediate rebound/limited upside. 119.14/119.16 even 120.05 on TNote10, 97.54 AGB10, 151.20 JGB. FOREX - Bearish USD vs DXY, CHF, Commos and EM Asia. Watch for surpassing of 1.1450 resistance on EURUSD to confirm a new rise. - JPY mixed bag.

We remain extremely cautious and expect consolidation, volatility, and lower prices to continue as the market searches for a bottom.  In today's report we recap our U.S. equity investment thesis and highlight attractive Groups within Services and Utilities: SV-16 Waste Services, Small-Cap, and UT-06 Electric, Midwest.

We remain extremely cautious and expect consolidation, volatility, and lower prices to continue as the market searches for a bottom.  In today's report we recap our U.S. equity investment thesis and highlight attractive Groups within Services and Utilities: SV-16 Waste Services, Small-Cap, and UT-06 Electric, Midwest.

U.S. Equity Update - Cautious Outlook, Downgrading Manufacturing

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

SOX relative cycle spearheaded our NDX peak call at 7,700 and the SPX peak call at 2,960/47 stemming from bearish breadth signals. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-tech-ndx-topping-signals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23713">US Tech/NDX Topping Signals</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/path-to-s-p-2-960-part-ii-leadership-fading-into-september-weakness" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22830">Path to S&amp;P 2,960 Part II - Leadership Fading into September Weakness</a>SMH (Semiconductor ETF) short trade is near/at support that opens the way for a Q4 tactical recovery trade but a weaker cycle is in store for 2019.SOX weakness in 2019 will create a challenging environment for linked Asian tech. Negative macro chart breaks label the recent high a high degree macro cycle peak.Recovery and fresh decline targets are outlined in what we expect to be a very challenging 2019.

SOX relative cycle spearheaded our NDX peak call at 7,700 and the SPX peak call at 2,960/47 stemming from bearish breadth signals. US Tech/NDX Topping SignalsPath to S&amp;P 2,960 Part II - Leadership Fading into September WeaknessSMH (Semiconductor ETF) short trade is near/at support that opens the way for a Q4 tactical recovery trade but a weaker cycle is in store for 2019.SOX weakness in 2019 will create a challenging environment for linked Asian tech. Negative macro chart breaks label the recent high a high degree macro cycle peak.Recovery and fresh decline targets are outlined in what we expect to be a very challenging 2019.

Semiconductor Cycle Concerns in 2019 to Weigh on Global Tech

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the...

Vermilion Research

BBSP - Tactical Cross Asset Weekly Paper

This Week in a nutshell...INDICES- In the current correction, 20500 Nikkei, 2600 S&P are the levels/supports to watch for an intermediate...

BBSP Asia

U.S. Equity Update - Cautious Outlook, Downgrading Manufacturing

We remain extremely cautious and expect consolidation, volatility, and lower prices to continue as the market searches for a bottom. In today's...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor Cycle Concerns in 2019 to Weigh on Global Tech

SOX relative cycle spearheaded our NDX peak call at 7,700 and the SPX peak call at 2,960/47 stemming from bearish breadth signals. US Tech/NDX...

Thomas Schroeder

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for...

Vermilion Research