Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

The tech and biotech-heavy Nasdaq continues to lead the market higher. Remain overweight. On the back of rising interest rates and a recently steepening yield curve, the XLF is on the cusp of a breakout from a descending triangle/falling wedge pattern. Given this move has been accompanied by improving relative strength, we view it as a bullish sign for both Financials and the broad market.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing sectos.

 The tech and biotech-heavy Nasdaq continues to lead the market higher. Remain overweight. On the back of rising interest rates and a recently steepening yield curve, the XLF is on the cusp of a breakout from a descending triangle/falling wedge pattern. Given this move has been accompanied by improving relative strength, we view it as a bullish sign for both Financials and the broad market.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing sectos.

Remain Overweight Tech; Large-Cap Financials on the Cusp of a Breakout

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.</li>
<li>A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.</li>
<li>The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…</li>
</ul>


Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.
A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.
The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…


Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact that recent NDX strength has not pierced upper Bollinger bands (two fades and third would set up a correction). Fading below this band implies the rise is getting tired as breadth narrows. NDX RSI has already cracked support.  SOX also backed off of key highs and looks heavy. A series of intra-day selling reversals would be a more negative combination…

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact that recent NDX strength has not pierced upper Bollinger bands (two fades and third would set up a correction). Fading below this band implies the rise is getting tired as breadth narrows. NDX RSI has already cracked support.  SOX also backed off of key highs and looks heavy. A series of intra-day selling reversals would be a more negative combination…

NDX Trendline Crack and XLF Triangulation

The final rally of this bull market is under way.  That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&amp;P 500, and its recent break up through 2,718.  Its final target range is 2,872-3,148.  The lack of new index extremes over the past month mean that there are no new indicator signals of note, but the likelihood of new highs is at least consistent with our case that the Q1 extreme momentum marked the end of a buying climax.  The extreme Trend Strength readings at the time suggested we were seeing a mirror image of 2008, and an “upward crash”.  Just as the extreme momentum of 2008 was a precursor to new lows in 2009, so new highs would be normal now.  We remain at Hold, and traders could even buy on a dip to 2,645-2,655, but 2,585 closing is now the stop on that view.  Below there we would turn extremely bearish, looking for an extended decline to the 2016 low at 1,810 into 2019/2020.  Hopefully, we will get to make that call higher up.

The final rally of this bull market is under way.  That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&amp;P 500, and its recent break up through 2,718.  Its final target range is 2,872-3,148.  The lack of new index extremes over the past month mean that there are no new indicator signals of note, but the likelihood of new highs is at least consistent with our case that the Q1 extreme momentum marked the end of a buying climax.  The extreme Trend Strength readings at the time suggested we were seeing a mirror image of 2008, and an “upward crash”.  Just as the extreme momentum of 2008 was a precursor to new lows in 2009, so new highs would be normal now.  We remain at Hold, and traders could even buy on a dip to 2,645-2,655, but 2,585 closing is now the stop on that view.  Below there we would turn extremely bearish, looking for an extended decline to the 2016 low at 1,810 into 2019/2020.  Hopefully, we will get to make that call higher up.

S&P 500:  Heading for a Final High at 2,872-3,148

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Remain Overweight Tech; Large-Cap Financials on the Cusp of a Breakout

The tech and biotech-heavy Nasdaq continues to lead the market higher. Remain overweight. On the back of rising interest rates and a recently...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: What Are the Odds of a Crash?

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”. This is not a forecast as such, because...

Peter Beuttell

Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders...

Sean Maher

NDX Trendline Crack and XLF Triangulation

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact...

Thomas Schroeder

S&P 500: Heading for a Final High at 2,872-3,148

The final rally of this bull market is under way. That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&P 500, and...

Peter Beuttell