Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the world off guard. We believe the reactions are likely just a flash in the pan. This tweet, like many others, should be taken as nothing more than negotiation tactics lifted right out of a chapter from “The Art of the Deal”. We have been subjected to untold Tweets in the last few years and the reactions generally seem to have been about as long-lived as their character count. Despite the noise, the markets remain on a firm footing.  In our Macro Vision publication, we lay out our U.S. equity investment thesis and provide a technical appraisal of the market Sector by Sector, along with attractive investment opportunities within each.

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the world off guard. We believe the reactions are likely just a flash in the pan. This tweet, like many others, should be taken as nothing more than negotiation tactics lifted right out of a chapter from “The Art of the Deal”. We have been subjected to untold Tweets in the last few years and the reactions generally seem to have been about as long-lived as their character count. Despite the noise, the markets remain on a firm footing.  In our Macro Vision publication, we lay out our U.S. equity investment thesis and provide a technical appraisal of the market Sector by Sector, along with attractive investment opportunities within each.

U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China / Technical Analysis

We touch on key pivots for the global cycle in the NDX (recent highs) and laid out in our recent insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spx-set-up-mirrors-september-2018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29247">SPX Set up Mirrors September 2018</a> . The SPX RSI pattern mirrors the late 2018 cycle with higher confidence break down signal unfolding today.With China a crowded long bet, we noted non confirmation in many of our technical sets on recent highs with buy volumes tapering off and divergences building.China A shares have broken some key tactical supports that set up a draw down to test macro pivot support at A50 12,000.We believe that at least 70% of a trade deal has been baked into current prices. An unwind of this bet would hit markets hard with some key chart levels to focus on.

We touch on key pivots for the global cycle in the NDX (recent highs) and laid out in our recent insight SPX Set up Mirrors September 2018 . The SPX RSI pattern mirrors the late 2018 cycle with higher confidence break down signal unfolding today.With China a crowded long bet, we noted non confirmation in many of our technical sets on recent highs with buy volumes tapering off and divergences building.China A shares have broken some key tactical supports that set up a draw down to test macro pivot support at A50 12,000.We believe that at least 70% of a trade deal has been baked into current prices. An unwind of this bet would hit markets hard with some key chart levels to focus on.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

Tech has been a long pair theme played via the NDX. SOX index (SMH ETF used for trading purposes) has been the better performer but we are now starting to see weaker signals on a relative basis while eyeing absolute levels that would raise red flags given the lead correlation to the NDX.Sell volumes spiked on Thursday/Friday and warn there is sell pressure lined up above and near that gap zone outlined in the chart.Semi’s tend to lead the NDX cycle which leads the SPX. These levels are critical components for the broader US equity cycle.

Tech has been a long pair theme played via the NDX. SOX index (SMH ETF used for trading purposes) has been the better performer but we are now starting to see weaker signals on a relative basis while eyeing absolute levels that would raise red flags given the lead correlation to the NDX.Sell volumes spiked on Thursday/Friday and warn there is sell pressure lined up above and near that gap zone outlined in the chart.Semi’s tend to lead the NDX cycle which leads the SPX. These levels are critical components for the broader US equity cycle.

SOX Cracks that Would Impact the Global Tech Cycle

Our positive outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains intact and we believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. We recommend taking advantage of recent weakness -- where applicable -- by adding exposure to cyclical Sectors. Today’s recommendations focus on autos, auto parts, and machinery which span the Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors.

Our positive outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains intact and we believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. We recommend taking advantage of recent weakness -- where applicable -- by adding exposure to cyclical Sectors. Today’s recommendations focus on autos, auto parts, and machinery which span the Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors. 

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted Energy and UK/European Financials are breaking out. This only serves to add to our already positive outlook as U.S. equities are poised to test all-time highs. We are upgrading equal-weight Energy to market weight. Also in today’s report, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Semiconductors.

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted Energy and UK/European Financials are breaking out. This only serves to add to our already positive outlook as U.S. equities are poised to test all-time highs. We are upgrading equal-weight Energy to market weight. Also in today’s report, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Semiconductors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Equal-Weight Energy Sector; Semis Are Leading Tech

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the...

Vermilion Research

China Game over Support Breaks

We touch on key pivots for the global cycle in the NDX (recent highs) and laid out in our recent insight SPX Set up Mirrors September 2018 . The...

Thomas Schroeder

SOX Cracks that Would Impact the Global Tech Cycle

Tech has been a long pair theme played via the NDX. SOX index (SMH ETF used for trading purposes) has been the better performer but we are now...

Thomas Schroeder

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals

Our positive outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains intact and we believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. We...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Equal-Weight Energy Sector; Semis Are Leading Tech

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted...

Vermilion Research