Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>mportant price support levels previously highlighted have held strong, including the 3200-3230 level on the S&amp;P 500, 10,855 on the Nasdaq 100, and $145/the 200-day MA on the Russell 2000 (IWM). Additionally, both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are breaking out from their bullish falling wedge patterns that have been taking shape since the early-September highs. These bullish inflections are encouraging and, combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy, lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are likely in.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Solar Energy, Fuel Cells/Lithium Batteries, and Software, Customer Relationship Mgt.</p>

mportant price support levels previously highlighted have held strong, including the 3200-3230 level on the S&amp;P 500, 10,855 on the Nasdaq 100, and $145/the 200-day MA on the Russell 2000 (IWM). Additionally, both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are breaking out from their bullish falling wedge patterns that have been taking shape since the early-September highs. These bullish inflections are encouraging and, combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy, lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are likely in.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Solar Energy, Fuel Cells/Lithium Batteries, and Software, Customer Relationship Mgt.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<div>Trade higher from SPX 3,220 is meeting SPX 3,350 and NDX 11,400 targets. We are entering a more vulnerable cycle after September 29 but realize we may see month end window dressing that could stretch into later this week.</div><div></div><div>Cycle timeline: September 29 to October 19 a more negative period with risk into early November.</div><div></div><div>Weekly cycle exhibits a more fragile bounce and fade sequence.</div><div></div><div>Europe and Asia show more bearish pattern set ups on a bounce into month end and the favored spaces to build short exposure. USD bias is for a dip and rally that will pressure Asia and EM's leaving the US in a good position to perform.</div>

Trade higher from SPX 3,220 is meeting SPX 3,350 and NDX 11,400 targets. We are entering a more vulnerable cycle after September 29 but realize we may see month end window dressing that could stretch into later this week.Cycle timeline: September 29 to October 19 a more negative period with risk into early November.Weekly cycle exhibits a more fragile bounce and fade sequence.Europe and Asia show more bearish pattern set ups on a bounce into month end and the favored spaces to build short exposure. USD bias is for a dip and rally that will pressure Asia and EM's leaving the US in a good position to perform.

<p>Given high conviction bear pattern breakdowns in Europe and Asia, we are assuming the US cycle has more downside per our cycle timeline toward October 19. Core shorts are in SPX and RTY. DJI is a fresh underperform and short candidate on a bounce.</p><p>Europe's impulsive break down out of bear triangulation patterns is in line with our short call from Eurostoxx 50 3,400. Euro banks leading the route with the periphery in pursuit.</p><p>In Asia, we were short for breakdowns in Korea, Taiwan and HK. Japan is just starting to see the macro cycle peak and turn south. Singapore, Malaysia have been high conviction shorts and now we are seeing the stronger horses break down.</p><p>Fresh sell levels are outlined in Asia with primary downside targets.</p>

Given high conviction bear pattern breakdowns in Europe and Asia, we are assuming the US cycle has more downside per our cycle timeline toward October 19. Core shorts are in SPX and RTY. DJI is a fresh underperform and short candidate on a bounce.Europe's impulsive break down out of bear triangulation patterns is in line with our short call from Eurostoxx 50 3,400. Euro banks leading the route with the periphery in pursuit.In Asia, we were short for breakdowns in Korea, Taiwan and HK. Japan is just starting to see the macro cycle peak and turn south. Singapore, Malaysia have been high conviction shorts and now we are seeing the stronger horses break down.Fresh sell levels are outlined in Asia with primary downside targets.

US Downside Targets with European and Asia Breakdowns

<p>Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.</p>

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Our tactical bet for the NDX and SPX touted a long from NDX 11k and SPX 3,320 for a rise to test 11,500 and 3,400 resistances and DJI 28,200.</p><div>Rally on the FOMC statement is expected to fade and we like shorting SPX and RTY strength if the rally fails to impress near SPX 3,435 with outlined support at 3,350. RTY is our core underperform short pair with resistance at 1,570 as the short level.</div><div></div><div>Daily RSI resistance levels and the underside of broken trendline are the focus levels to align.</div><div></div><p><strong>Daily MACD's show a wide mouth (spread) that needs to narrow </strong>or close and supports a reaction rise. Noted RSI resistance points to align with price levels.</p>

Our tactical bet for the NDX and SPX touted a long from NDX 11k and SPX 3,320 for a rise to test 11,500 and 3,400 resistances and DJI 28,200.Rally on the FOMC statement is expected to fade and we like shorting SPX and RTY strength if the rally fails to impress near SPX 3,435 with outlined support at 3,350. RTY is our core underperform short pair with resistance at 1,570 as the short level.Daily RSI resistance levels and the underside of broken trendline are the focus levels to align.Daily MACD's show a wide mouth (spread) that needs to narrow or close and supports a reaction rise. Noted RSI resistance points to align with price levels.

NDX and SPX Underside of Broken Trendline Pivots

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Correction Over?

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary & Technology: CD-24 Casinos & Gaming, Small-Cap,...

Vermilion Research

SPX and NDX Trade Levels

Trade higher from SPX 3,220 is meeting SPX 3,350 and NDX 11,400 targets. We are entering a more vulnerable cycle after September 29 but realize we...

Thomas Schroeder

US Downside Targets with European and Asia Breakdowns

Given high conviction bear pattern breakdowns in Europe and Asia, we are assuming the US cycle has more downside per our cycle. Core shorts are in...

Thomas Schroeder

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially...

Vermilion Research

NDX and SPX Underside of Broken Trendline Pivots

Our tactical bet for the NDX and SPX touted a long from NDX 11k and SPX 3,320 for a rise to test 11,500 and 3,400 resistances and DJI 28,200. Rally...

Thomas Schroeder