Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

The recent outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&amp;P 500  is now showing signs of exhaustion. There is a risk that this reverses somewhat and that the S&amp;P 500 will perform better over the short term.

The recent outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&amp;P 500  is now showing signs of exhaustion. There is a risk that this reverses somewhat and that the S&amp;P 500 will perform better over the short term.

SPX/NDX Ratio: Nasdaq Not as Attractive as It Was

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

Pay attention to rotation currents ahead of a key tactical peak in the US cycle into late July. Our cycle work calls for an SPX and NDX top late this week ahead of a pullback attempt to test pivotal trendline supports.NDX is expected to lose steam as the DJI attempts a breakout and the rotation to monitor that will lift breadth this week.The most important pivot for the global cycle is the NDX price trendline support that currently runs near 14,650 and rises into next week. A clear bull/bear pivot line.Cycle - SPX and NDX moving into a frothy tactical top zone. July 19 onwards favors a weaker seasonal cycle starting to unfold.

Pay attention to rotation currents ahead of a key tactical peak in the US cycle into late July. Our cycle work calls for an SPX and NDX top late this week ahead of a pullback attempt to test pivotal trendline supports.NDX is expected to lose steam as the DJI attempts a breakout and the rotation to monitor that will lift breadth this week.The most important pivot for the global cycle is the NDX price trendline support that currently runs near 14,650 and rises into next week. A clear bull/bear pivot line.Cycle - SPX and NDX moving into a frothy tactical top zone. July 19 onwards favors a weaker seasonal cycle starting to unfold.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

SPX trendline and price support at 4,250/65 is a key inflection point to hold. NDX well defined trendline support is a bull/bear pivot to watch to hold or break that will define tech risk. HK tech rippling into global cycle as Europe breaks key supports.1-2 day downside spikes have been a buying opportunities in recent months and July seasonality is strong into mid-July and should then taper off.Risk lies with a key low today, spring back Friday and then re tests support conviction in order to set the stage for a fresh risk on push.

SPX trendline and price support at 4,250/65 is a key inflection point to hold. NDX well defined trendline support is a bull/bear pivot to watch to hold or break that will define tech risk. HK tech rippling into global cycle as Europe breaks key supports.1-2 day downside spikes have been a buying opportunities in recent months and July seasonality is strong into mid-July and should then taper off.Risk lies with a key low today, spring back Friday and then re tests support conviction in order to set the stage for a fresh risk on push.

In May we outlined a call to short metals for a big unwind in crowded positioning. Our weaker yield stance then called for crowded banks to be the next unwind and now see oil and then tech as the next domino's to fall.Key support breaks and pivot levels are outlined that will culminate in a late June risk off event that is gaining bear momentum today.USD bottom and rally call is unfolding and gaining bull steam.

In May we outlined a call to short metals for a big unwind in crowded positioning. Our weaker yield stance then called for crowded banks to be the next unwind and now see oil and then tech as the next domino's to fall.Key support breaks and pivot levels are outlined that will culminate in a late June risk off event that is gaining bear momentum today.USD bottom and rally call is unfolding and gaining bull steam.

Unwinding Crowded Trades - What Is the Next Domino?

Base case called for a head fake rally that fell just shy of our 4,264 projection as we roll into the more turbulent late June cycle. Slipping back below 4,240 represents a breakout failure and did break some short term support (now resistance on a bounce attempt).Our short focus has been  the DJI  that is showing some breadth and Dow theory red flags by not seeing a minor new high in line with the SPX. Our attention now turns to the NDX at the top of the wedge as the next short play.USD is gaining traction as yields bounced off of key support.A late June wobble and potential tantrum will set the stage for a nice long entry in July.

Base case called for a head fake rally that fell just shy of our 4,264 projection as we roll into the more turbulent late June cycle. Slipping back below 4,240 represents a breakout failure and did break some short term support (now resistance on a bounce attempt).Our short focus has been  the DJI  that is showing some breadth and Dow theory red flags by not seeing a minor new high in line with the SPX. Our attention now turns to the NDX at the top of the wedge as the next short play.USD is gaining traction as yields bounced off of key support.A late June wobble and potential tantrum will set the stage for a nice long entry in July. 

SPX Breakout Failure and Where to Focus Shorts into Late June Wobble

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

SPX/NDX Ratio: Nasdaq Not as Attractive as It Was

The recent outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&P 500 is now showing signs of exhaustion. The S&P 500 is starting to look better from a...

Shyam Devani

DJI Rotation as Tech Tops

NDX is touted to lose steam as the DJI attempts a rotation breakout. Our cycle work warns of an SPX and NDX top late this week ahead of a pullback...

Thomas Schroeder

NDX and SPX Pivot Supports a Must Hold

SPX trendline and price support at 4,250/65 is a key inflection point to hold. NDX well defined trendline support is a bull/bear pivot to watch to...

Thomas Schroeder

Unwinding Crowded Trades - What Is the Next Domino?

In May, we outlined a call to short metals for a big unwind in crowded positioning. Our weaker yield stance then called for crowded banks to be the...

Thomas Schroeder

SPX Breakout Failure and Where to Focus Shorts into Late June Wobble

Base case called for a head fake rally that fell just shy of our 4,264 projection as we roll into the more turbulent late June cycle. Slipping back...

Thomas Schroeder