Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wakita-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11924:1" rel="noopener">Wakita &amp; Co Ltd (8125 JP)</a> has been a deep value stock for years. It has had deep value investors owning stakes before.</p><p>However, the company has pretty low ROE based on truly awful capital allocation policy. A very large portion of the long-term assets in the firm are effectively managed by people with little to no experience in the space, in a sub-optimal capital structure. The company has large amounts of net cash, and securities, and more securities and crossholdings. And the entire company is effectively a leasing business with some add-ons, and it finances itself with almost zero debt. </p><p>While it is dangerous to call a paradigm change on companies where there is a significant corporate cross-holding and significant family holding and control, there are times when the confluence of events make stocks like Wakita worth a deeper look.</p><p>This may be such a time.</p>

Wakita &amp; Co Ltd (8125 JP) has been a deep value stock for years. It has had deep value investors owning stakes before.However, the company has pretty low ROE based on truly awful capital allocation policy. A very large portion of the long-term assets in the firm are effectively managed by people with little to no experience in the space, in a sub-optimal capital structure. The company has large amounts of net cash, and securities, and more securities and crossholdings. And the entire company is effectively a leasing business with some add-ons, and it finances itself with almost zero debt. While it is dangerous to call a paradigm change on companies where there is a significant corporate cross-holding and significant family holding and control, there are times when the confluence of events make stocks like Wakita worth a deeper look.This may be such a time.

Japan Activism: A Look into Wakita (8125 JP) Potential Pre-Event

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/477/original/2020-07-23_10-42-06.png?1595468537" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147477"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/478/original/2020-07-23_10-44-59.png?1595468712" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147478"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/483/original/2020-07-23_11-31-51.png?1595471532" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147483"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">OBIC (4684 JP)</a></strong>- OBIC was the largest-cap company to report on Wednesday before the four-day holiday break. Despite a deceleration in the rate of revenue growth, the operating profit margin reached a record level of 58% in the first quarter as both COGS and SG&amp;A continue to decline. The other end of the Income Statement is less impressive. The 17 percentage point gap between the operating and CITC margins is also a new record. OBIC's ability to control its securities investment and returns at unconsolidated subsidiaries is much less impressive. OBIC is now the most Overbought IT Sector company in Japan, although the company's peer-relative earnings and forecast momentum has been declining. At an EV/ TTM OP of 34x times, valuations have only been higher during the 1999/2000 tech bubble and will act a constraint to the upside. With little margin for safety, we would not be buyers at this level.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/485/original/2020-07-23_11-40-21.png?1595472039" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147485"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/480/original/2020-07-23_11-19-55.png?1595470809" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147480"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/479/original/2020-07-23_10-46-52.png?1595468831" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147479"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics<hr>
</div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>24 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 10 Positive / 1 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -1.3</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +1.8% Quarter YoY / +2.9% Rolling TTM YoY<em> (exc. Kosei Secs) </em>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.3ppt <em>(exc. Kosei Secs)</em>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>13 Annual • 11 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 2 Neutral / 8 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 3 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -7.6</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
OBIC (4684 JP)- OBIC was the largest-cap company to report on Wednesday before the four-day holiday break. Despite a deceleration in the rate of revenue growth, the operating profit margin reached a record level of 58% in the first quarter as both COGS and SG&amp;A continue to decline. The other end of the Income Statement is less impressive. The 17 percentage point gap between the operating and CITC margins is also a new record. OBIC's ability to control its securities investment and returns at unconsolidated subsidiaries is much less impressive. OBIC is now the most Overbought IT Sector company in Japan, although the company's peer-relative earnings and forecast momentum has been declining. At an EV/ TTM OP of 34x times, valuations have only been higher during the 1999/2000 tech bubble and will act a constraint to the upside. With little margin for safety, we would not be buyers at this level.
Source • Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
24 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 10 Positive / 1 Neutral / 13 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -1.3

Average % Change in Revenue: +1.8% Quarter YoY / +2.9% Rolling TTM YoY (exc. Kosei Secs) 


Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.3ppt (exc. Kosei Secs)


Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
 13 Annual • 11 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 2 Neutral / 8 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 3 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -7.6


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 22nd July - OBIC, CyberAgent, Tokyo Steel & The Deep Freeze

<p>On 6 August 2019, pachinko machinery maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12385:1" rel="noopener">Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP)</a> announced that it would try to buy back just over 22,000,000 shares for ¥75.37 billion, and announced it would cancel the resulting treasury shares after the completion of the buyback.</p>
<p>The company has consistently bought back shares for the past ten years, and has traded in a reasonably stable price range in that period, despite seeing Revenues and Operating Profits fall sharply in that period. The company has been significantly cash-rich for the twenty years I have watched it.</p>
<p>Of course, in an industry like Sankyo inhabits, given the general level of skepticism about the industry's long-term future, good capital policy should be seen as super-important. One might consider the business to be in permanent long-term run-off.</p>
<h2>The Buyback News</h2>
<p>The company will buy back those shares principally from Marf Corporation ("MC"), which is the personal company of Mr. Hideyuki Busujima who is the Representative Director and Chairman of Sankyo, and son of founder <em>Kunio Busujima</em> who passed away in 2016. MC held 28.346mm shares as of 31 March, or 34.92%. Family members own a bit more under their own names.</p>
<p>The buyback will be conducted through the means of a Tender Offer at JPY 3,426/share which is a 10.0% discount to the one-month average closing price in the month to 5 August. It was a 5.6% discount to the closing price before the announcement was made.</p>
<p>International active investors should take note of three really important things here:</p>
<ol>
<li>This tender offer is not for you, even if the share price falls below the Tender Offer Price. There are mechanics to these things which make it unattractive for you. </li>
<li>There may be another way to achieve a slightly better result than the Tender Offer if you want to sell shares. The company has created the means of effectively enlarging the size of the buyback if there are willing sellers.</li>
<li>The more people who sell, the more this becomes interesting on the back end. </li>
</ol>
<p>Read on below for more.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>For more information on Japanese Tender Offers and M&amp;A, please refer to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-japan-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide</a> which is meant as a guide to the rules and practices of M&amp;A and Tender Offers in Japan, including minority and dissenter rights.</em></p>

On 6 August 2019, pachinko machinery maker Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP) announced that it would try to buy back just over 22,000,000 shares for ¥75.37 billion, and announced it would cancel the resulting treasury shares after the completion of the buyback.
The company has consistently bought back shares for the past ten years, and has traded in a reasonably stable price range in that period, despite seeing Revenues and Operating Profits fall sharply in that period. The company has been significantly cash-rich for the twenty years I have watched it.
Of course, in an industry like Sankyo inhabits, given the general level of skepticism about the industry's long-term future, good capital policy should be seen as super-important. One might consider the business to be in permanent long-term run-off.
The Buyback News
The company will buy back those shares principally from Marf Corporation ("MC"), which is the personal company of Mr. Hideyuki Busujima who is the Representative Director and Chairman of Sankyo, and son of founder Kunio Busujima who passed away in 2016. MC held 28.346mm shares as of 31 March, or 34.92%. Family members own a bit more under their own names.
The buyback will be conducted through the means of a Tender Offer at JPY 3,426/share which is a 10.0% discount to the one-month average closing price in the month to 5 August. It was a 5.6% discount to the closing price before the announcement was made.
International active investors should take note of three really important things here:

This tender offer is not for you, even if the share price falls below the Tender Offer Price. There are mechanics to these things which make it unattractive for you. 
There may be another way to achieve a slightly better result than the Tender Offer if you want to sell shares. The company has created the means of effectively enlarging the size of the buyback if there are willing sellers.
The more people who sell, the more this becomes interesting on the back end. 

Read on below for more.

For more information on Japanese Tender Offers and M&amp;A, please refer to the Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide which is meant as a guide to the rules and practices of M&amp;A and Tender Offers in Japan, including minority and dissenter rights.

Accretive Sankyo Self-Tender - Boring But A Good Kind of Boring, With Something For Everyone

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<p><strong>GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET</strong> - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh straight quarter of improved earnings results with a ‘raspberry’. Almost all of the previous two week's gains have been unwound; the 50-day moving average has been breached on the downside and volumes have continued to grind lower. The Market Composite trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE is now just 14.2x and the lowest level of the soon-to-be-extended ‘era’ of…</p>

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh straight quarter of improved earnings results with a ‘raspberry’. Almost all of the previous two week's gains have been unwound; the 50-day moving average has been breached on the downside and volumes have continued to grind lower. The Market Composite trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE is now just 14.2x and the lowest level of the soon-to-be-extended ‘era’ of…

Japan Fortnightly Update: Market PE at ‘Abe-Era’ Low

<p><strong>TREASURY SHARES IN JAPAN -</strong> As a prelude to an upcoming insight on share buybacks in Japan, this note is a fork of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/342" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342">Douglas Kim</a> 's quick note on Korean Companies with Highest Levels of Treasury Shares. We highlight the Japanese companies with the highest percentage of Treasury Shares to shares in issue as well as those larger capitalisation stocks that have forgone the pleasure of buybacks.</p><p><strong>2.7% OF SHARES HELD IN TREASURY</strong> - As is the case in Korea, most Japanese companies do not cancel shares after…</p>

TREASURY SHARES IN JAPAN - As a prelude to an upcoming insight on share buybacks in Japan, this note is a fork of Douglas Kim 's quick note on Korean Companies with Highest Levels of Treasury Shares. We highlight the Japanese companies with the highest percentage of Treasury Shares to shares in issue as well as those larger capitalisation stocks that have forgone the pleasure of buybacks.2.7% OF SHARES HELD IN TREASURY - As is the case in Korea, most Japanese companies do not cancel shares after…

Japan: Treasury Share 'Kings' and 'Paupers'

Japan

NAKANO REFRIGERATORS CO., LTD. manufactures, wholesales, repairs, and maintains commercial freezers and refrigeration showcases.  The Company's products are used to encase foods such as vegetables, fruits, meat, ice cream, and other frozen foods.  Nakano Refrigerators, based in Tokyo, exports freezers and refrigeration showcases to China through its subsidiary.

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Nakano Refrigerators (6411 JP)

Japan Activism: A Look into Wakita (8125 JP) Potential Pre-Event

Wakita (8125) is a serial underperformer, has a corporate governance and crossholder problem, an activist making noise, an inheritance stake to...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 22nd July - OBIC, CyberAgent, Tokyo Steel & The Deep Freeze

OBIC (4684 JP)- OBIC was the largest-cap company to report on Wednesday before the four-day holiday break. Despite a deceleration in the rate of...

Campbell Gunn

Accretive Sankyo Self-Tender - Boring But A Good Kind of Boring, With Something For Everyone

On 6 August 2019, pachinko machinery maker Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP) announced that it would try to buy back just over 22,000,000 shares for ¥75.37...

Travis Lundy

Japan Fortnightly Update: Market PE at ‘Abe-Era’ Low

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh...

Campbell Gunn

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Japan Activism: A Look into Wakita (8125 JP) Potential Pre-Event

Wakita (8125) is a serial underperformer, has a corporate governance and crossholder problem, an activist making noise, an inheritance stake to...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 22nd July - OBIC, CyberAgent, Tokyo Steel & The Deep Freeze

OBIC (4684 JP)- OBIC was the largest-cap company to report on Wednesday before the four-day holiday break. Despite a deceleration in the rate of...

Campbell Gunn

Accretive Sankyo Self-Tender - Boring But A Good Kind of Boring, With Something For Everyone

On 6 August 2019, pachinko machinery maker Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP) announced that it would try to buy back just over 22,000,000 shares for ¥75.37...

Travis Lundy

Japan Fortnightly Update: Market PE at ‘Abe-Era’ Low

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Treasury Share 'Kings' and 'Paupers'

TREASURY SHARES IN JAPAN - As a prelude to an upcoming insight on share buybacks in Japan, this note is a fork of Douglas Kim 's quick note on...

Campbell Gunn