Emerging and frontier market equity analyst, AlphaBox Advisors

Mohit Surana

Emerging and frontier market equity analyst

Value-Investing Philosophy and Bottom-up Approach

AlphaBox Advisors

At AlphaBox, our recommendations are sector and country agnostic and diversified by market cap. We follow value-investing philosophy and pursue a bottom-up approach to recommending stocks that has a good risk-reward profile and potential to generate market-beating returns, which in some cases would be complemented with an attractive dividend yield. Our recommendations fall into the following two broad categories: (i) Long-term Compounders – Global Markets (ii) EM and FM Alpha

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Kazakh government silently allowed Russia to buy 49% stake in JV Budenovskoye sometime in 2021-H2.</li>
<li>Kazatomprom owned 51% in the JV, but the deal was not properly disclosed in Kazatomprom reports.</li>
<li>Many company officials resigned since the deal fearing breach of legal duty on disclosure.</li>
</ul>


The Kazakh government silently allowed Russia to buy 49% stake in JV Budenovskoye sometime in 2021-H2.
Kazatomprom owned 51% in the JV, but the deal was not properly disclosed in Kazatomprom reports.
Many company officials resigned since the deal fearing breach of legal duty on disclosure.


Kazatomprom (KAP LI): Revelation Of A Silent Uranium Deal

<ul>
<li>Kazatomprom is the world’s largest Uranium miner with the lowest cost of production.  </li>
<li>The company has strong fundamentals with demand supply dynamics expected to steadily become more favorable going forward.</li>
<li>Geopolitical concerns, which is the main reason for its low P/E, should subside as time passes by. </li>
</ul>


Kazatomprom is the world’s largest Uranium miner with the lowest cost of production.  
The company has strong fundamentals with demand supply dynamics expected to steadily become more favorable going forward.
Geopolitical concerns, which is the main reason for its low P/E, should subside as time passes by. 


Kazatomprom NAC (KAP LI): Strong Fundamentals and Improving Demand Supply Dynamics.

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bearish outlook on the nuclear industry could be too optimistic</li>
<li>No Chinese nuclear station has commenced construction since 2016</li>
<li>5-year forecast for uranium demand to decelerate due to growth in decommissioning </li>
<li>Est. prices &lt;US$20/lb U3O8 within the next several years to restore mkt equilibrium</li>
<li>Despite low inventories, non-critical nature of Zn depresses prices</li>
<li>Political pressure increasing against NPI mining in Indonesia and Philippines</li>
<li>Indonesia and Philippines account for ~40% of global Ni supply</li>
<li>Ni consumption predicted to grow at 4.7% CAGR over the next few years</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nac-kazatomprom-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27845:1" rel="noopener">NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cameco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25364:1" rel="noopener">Cameco Corp (CCO CN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yellow-cake-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1" rel="noopener">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peel-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1" rel="noopener">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-rim-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8395:1" rel="noopener">Golden Rim Resources (GMR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/focus-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10577:1" rel="noopener">Focus Minerals (FML AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jameson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1923:1" rel="noopener">Jameson Resources (JAL AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacifico-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11085:1" rel="noopener">Pacifico Minerals (PMY AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausmex-mining-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11167:1" rel="noopener">Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU), Calidus Resources (ASX: CAI), Venturex (ASX: VRX), Saturn Minerals (ASX: STN), Indiana Resources (ASX: IDA), Ora Banda (ASX: OBM) </a>
</li>
</ul>


Our bearish outlook on the nuclear industry could be too optimistic
No Chinese nuclear station has commenced construction since 2016
5-year forecast for uranium demand to decelerate due to growth in decommissioning 
Est. prices &lt;US$20/lb U3O8 within the next several years to restore mkt equilibrium
Despite low inventories, non-critical nature of Zn depresses prices
Political pressure increasing against NPI mining in Indonesia and Philippines
Indonesia and Philippines account for ~40% of global Ni supply
Ni consumption predicted to grow at 4.7% CAGR over the next few years

NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI), Cameco Corp (CCO CN), Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), Golden Rim Resources (GMR AU), Focus Minerals (FML AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Jameson Resources (JAL AU), Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), Pacifico Minerals (PMY AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU), Calidus Resources (ASX: CAI), Venturex (ASX: VRX), Saturn Minerals (ASX: STN), Indiana Resources (ASX: IDA), Ora Banda (ASX: OBM) 



New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 2 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The snap presidential election due on Sunday 9 June should help allay investors' concerns. In the absence of real competition, we expect Nazarbayev’s nominee Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev to win. However, the substantial reduction in risks associated with presidential succession is unlikely to trigger an automatic upgrade of Kazakhstan’s sovereign ratings. In the last months of Nazarbayev's rule, we detected signs of increased pressure on the central bank to provide the economy with long money.  There are signs that President Tokayev is going to maintain the pressure on NBK, which we find worrying.
</div>


When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The snap presidential election due on Sunday 9 June should help allay investors' concerns. In the absence of real competition, we expect Nazarbayev’s nominee Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev to win. However, the substantial reduction in risks associated with presidential succession is unlikely to trigger an automatic upgrade of Kazakhstan’s sovereign ratings. In the last months of Nazarbayev's rule, we detected signs of increased pressure on the central bank to provide the economy with long money.  There are signs that President Tokayev is going to maintain the pressure on NBK, which we find worrying.


Kazakhstan Snap Presidential Election Should Ensure Smooth Presidential Succession

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

Boost Research Ltd is an appointed representative of Messels Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the FCA of the UK. 

This document is issued by Boost Research Limited solely for its clients. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed to any other person in whole or in part for any purpose without written consent of Boost Research. The material in this document is not intended for distribution or use outside the United Kingdom. This material is not directed at you if Boost Research is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you.

This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer, solicitation, invitation, inducement or recommendation relating to the subscription, purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument.  This document does not constitute, and should not be interpreted as, investment advice.  It is accordingly recommended that you should seek independent advice from a suitably qualified professional advisor before taking any decisions in relation to the investments detailed herein. All expressions of opinions and estimates constitute a judgement and, unless otherwise stated, are those of the author and the research department of Boost Research only, and are subject to change without notice. Boost Research is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. Whilst Boost Research has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this document is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Boost Research cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness, and you should not act on it without first independently verifying its contents. This document is not guaranteed to be a complete statement or summary of any securities, markets, reports or developments referred to herein. No representation or warranty either expressed or implied is made, nor responsibility of any kind is accepted, by Boost Research or any of its respective directors, officers, employees or analysts either as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this document nor should it be relied on as such. No liability whatsoever is accepted by Boost Research or any of its respective directors, officers, employees or analysts for any loss, whether direct or consequential, arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the recipient acting on the content of this document, including, without limitation, lost profits arising from the use of this document or any of its contents.

This document is provided with the understanding that Boost Research is not acting in a fiduciary capacity and it is not a personal recommendation to you. Investing in securities entails risks. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of and the income produced by products may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than he invested. Investments in the entities and/or the securities or other financial instruments referred to are not suitable for all investors and this document should not be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment in relation to any such investment. The stated price of any securities mentioned herein will generally be the closing price at the end of any of the three business days immediately prior to the publication date on this document. This stated price is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price.

Boost Research and its respective analysts are remunerated for providing investment research to professional investors, corporations, other research institutions and consultancy houses. Boost Research, or its respective directors, officers, employees and clients may have or take positions in the securities or entities mentioned in this document.  Any of these circumstances could create, or be perceived as creating, conflicts of interest. Boost Research’ analysts are not censored in any way and are free to express their personal opinions. As a result, Boost Research may have issued other documents that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusions from, the information contained in this document. Those documents reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of their authors. No director, officer or employee of Boost Research is on the board of directors of any company referenced herein and no one at any such referenced company is on the board of directors of Boost Research.

Messels is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority for the provision of investment advice. Residents of the United Kingdom should seek specific professional financial and investment advice from a stockbroker, banker, solicitor, accountant or other independent professional adviser authorised pursuant to the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. This report is intended only for investors who are 'professional clients' as defined by the FCA, and may not, therefore, be redistributed to other classes of investors.

The content of this report is covered by our Policy of Independence which may be viewed at www.messels.com.

 

Analysts’ Certification

The analysts involved in the production of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal views about the securities mentioned herein. The analysts point out that they may buy, sell or already have taken positions in the securities, and related financial instruments, mentioned in this document

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a> is a pure play on the uranium price</li>
<li>Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8
</li>
<li>Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV</li>
<li>Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand</li>
<li>Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production</li>
<li>Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006</li>
<li>Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050</li>
<li>
1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8
</li>
<li>
3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps NPV4% assuming $21/lb U3O</li>
</ul>



Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price
Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8

Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV
Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand
Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production
Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006
Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050

1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8


3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps NPV4% assuming $21/lb U3O


Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

Kazakhstan

NAC Kazatomprom JSC produces and markets minerals. The Company specializes in natural uranium production. NAC Kazatomprom also imports and exports uranium compounds, nuclear power plant fuel, and uranium components. NAC Kazatomprom serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI)

Kazatomprom (KAP LI): Revelation Of A Silent Uranium Deal

KAZATOMPROM (KAP LI): News article allege a secret Uranium deal between the Russian and the Kazakh government was the reason behind major...

Mohit Surana

Kazatomprom NAC (KAP LI): Strong Fundamentals and Improving Demand Supply Dynamics.

Kazatomprom: A cheaper way to gain exposure to Uranium mining industry with low probability of a geopolitical risk escalation.

Mohit Surana

New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 2 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

Our bearish outlook on the nuclear industry could be too optimistic No Chinese nuclear station has commenced construction since 2016 5-year...

Gaius King

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential Election Should Ensure Smooth Presidential Succession

When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The...

Tatiana Orlova

Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 & L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8 Share price trading...

Boost Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)