European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sumitomo has increased its all-cash offer by c. 19% to $27/share, a 50% premium, 4.6x EV/Fwd Revenue and corresponds to an implied equity value of $1.7 billion and EV of $2.9 billion.</li>
<li>The Board of Myovant recommends the offer, which should close in Q1 2023. The market has bought into the deal: USD turnover on 24 October has been $585 million.</li>
<li>As a result of the improved offer, I increase my TP to $27 (vs $22.84 formerly). Gross spread is 0.78% and the estimated annual return is 1.83%.</li>
</ul>


Sumitomo has increased its all-cash offer by c. 19% to $27/share, a 50% premium, 4.6x EV/Fwd Revenue and corresponds to an implied equity value of $1.7 billion and EV of $2.9 billion.
The Board of Myovant recommends the offer, which should close in Q1 2023. The market has bought into the deal: USD turnover on 24 October has been $585 million.
As a result of the improved offer, I increase my TP to $27 (vs $22.84 formerly). Gross spread is 0.78% and the estimated annual return is 1.83%.


Sumitomo/​Myovant: Agreed Minorities Takeout at $27

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-dainippon-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a> offered to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/myovant-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36419:1" rel="noopener">Myovant Sciences (MYOV US)</a>, which was rejected due to low valuation. The company is unlikely to revise its offer for Myovant.</li>
<li>As Sumitomo’s in-house drug candidates are still in clinical stages, the company needs Myovant’s already marketed products to maintain its growth momentum post Latuda patent expiry.</li>
<li>Sumitomo is not expected to sell its existing 52% stake in Myovant. This will ensure that Myovant’s marketed products Orgovyx and Myfembree should continue to remain as Sumitomo’s growth drivers.  </li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP) offered to acquire Myovant Sciences (MYOV US), which was rejected due to low valuation. The company is unlikely to revise its offer for Myovant.
As Sumitomo’s in-house drug candidates are still in clinical stages, the company needs Myovant’s already marketed products to maintain its growth momentum post Latuda patent expiry.
Sumitomo is not expected to sell its existing 52% stake in Myovant. This will ensure that Myovant’s marketed products Orgovyx and Myfembree should continue to remain as Sumitomo’s growth drivers.  


Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP): Myovant Is Crucial for Post-Latuda Growth Momentum

<ul>
<li>Sumitomo has offered $22.75/share in cash, 27% premium, for the 48% stake it doesn't hold in Myovant, whose Board has rejected the offer and is open to negotiate.</li>
<li>The sell-side forecasts peak sales of over $2 billion for Orgovyx and Myfembree. Myovant also has a co-marketing deal with Pfizer could be worth $3.8 billion in milestones.</li>
<li>My TP is $22.84 (in line with consensus and the offer price). The market certainly believes that Sumitomo could be preparing a sweetened offer. Will Orgovyx become a blockbuster?</li>
</ul>


Sumitomo has offered $22.75/share in cash, 27% premium, for the 48% stake it doesn't hold in Myovant, whose Board has rejected the offer and is open to negotiate.
The sell-side forecasts peak sales of over $2 billion for Orgovyx and Myfembree. Myovant also has a co-marketing deal with Pfizer could be worth $3.8 billion in milestones.
My TP is $22.84 (in line with consensus and the offer price). The market certainly believes that Sumitomo could be preparing a sweetened offer. Will Orgovyx become a blockbuster?


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/myovant-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36419:1" rel="noopener">Myovant Sciences (MYOV US)</a> rejected $2.5 billion takeover offer from its largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-dainippon-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a>, as the bid significantly undervalues the company.</li>
<li>Amid its tight cash situation, upcoming patent cliff, and ongoing late-stage clinical trials, Sumitomo is not expected to revise its offer upward.</li>
<li>New acquisition offer from marketing partner Pfizer is the most likely scenario. Even if the company does not receive any takeover offer, Myovant is capable of running its operating activities.</li>
</ul>



Myovant Sciences (MYOV US) rejected $2.5 billion takeover offer from its largest shareholder, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP), as the bid significantly undervalues the company.
Amid its tight cash situation, upcoming patent cliff, and ongoing late-stage clinical trials, Sumitomo is not expected to revise its offer upward.
New acquisition offer from marketing partner Pfizer is the most likely scenario. Even if the company does not receive any takeover offer, Myovant is capable of running its operating activities.


Myovant Sciences (MYOV US): Rejects Sumitomo’s $2.5B Bid; Remains Open for Better Offer

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.</li>
<li>Supports included 3636 on the S&amp;P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.
Supports included 3636 on the S&amp;P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.


Another Bear Market Rally Brewing?; Stick With Biotech and Construction/Engineering Names

Japan

Myovant Sciences Ltd. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on developing and commercializing innovative therapies for women's health diseases and other endocrine-related disorders. Myovant Sciences develops relugolix for the treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids and endometriosis-associated pain.

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Myovant Sciences (MYOV US)

Sumitomo/Myovant: Agreed Minorities Takeout at $27

There is a willing buyer, Sumitomo, which has increased its offer by 18.7% vs. the initial approach. The market believes the offer will succeed and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP): Myovant Is Crucial for Post-Latuda Growth Momentum

As Sumitomo is not expected to launch any new in-house product until FY24, the company needs Myovant’s already marketed products to maintain its...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo/Myovant: Minorities Takeout

The question is whether Orgovyx could become a blockbuster. The market certainly thinks so, there may be both further upside potential in the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar