New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Retailers are facing a challenging outlook</li><li>We expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023</li><li>In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.</li></ul>

Retailers are facing a challenging outlookWe expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>My Food Bag (MFB) released a disappointing 1H23 result, with NPAT materially lower than 1H22 and below both our and consensus forecasts</li><li>This was primarily driven by active customer churn which saw a reduction in total deliveries and adverse unit economics from lower box volumes</li><li>MFB has not provided guidance, but commented 1H23 trends have continued in recent trading and FY23 earnings will be lower than FY22</li></ul>

My Food Bag (MFB) released a disappointing 1H23 result, with NPAT materially lower than 1H22 and below both our and consensus forecastsThis was primarily driven by active customer churn which saw a reduction in total deliveries and adverse unit economics from lower box volumesMFB has not provided guidance, but commented 1H23 trends have continued in recent trading and FY23 earnings will be lower than FY22

My Food Bag: 1H23 Result — Missing Delivery

<ul><li>My Food Bag (MFB) released a disappointing 1H23 result, with NPAT of ~NZ$6m materially below 1H22’s ~NZ$9m (-40% lower)</li><li>This is significantly below our estimate of ~$11m, but above pre-COVID 1H20’s ~NZ$3m</li><li>MFB’s comments on outlook indicated that trends from 1H22 have continued in recent trading, and FY23 earnings (and dividends) will be lower than FY22</li></ul>

My Food Bag (MFB) released a disappointing 1H23 result, with NPAT of ~NZ$6m materially below 1H22’s ~NZ$9m (-40% lower)This is significantly below our estimate of ~$11m, but above pre-COVID 1H20’s ~NZ$3mMFB’s comments on outlook indicated that trends from 1H22 have continued in recent trading, and FY23 earnings (and dividends) will be lower than FY22

My Food Bag (MFB): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Greater customer spend offsets decline in deliveries: Revenue has grown marginally compared to the prior year as AOV has more than offset a decline in total deliveries</li><li>Product mix can capture price conscious consumers: Resilient active customer numbers despite signs of trading down in size and brand suggest MFB is able to retain customers by continuing to offer lower-cost alternatives, even as orders per household may be falling</li><li>Cost pressures starting to flow through to earnings</li></ul>

Greater customer spend offsets decline in deliveries: Revenue has grown marginally compared to the prior year as AOV has more than offset a decline in total deliveriesProduct mix can capture price conscious consumers: Resilient active customer numbers despite signs of trading down in size and brand suggest MFB is able to retain customers by continuing to offer lower-cost alternatives, even as orders per household may be fallingCost pressures starting to flow through to earnings

My Food Bag: Inflation Challenges Stirring the Pot

<ul><li>MFB's lower-than-expected EBITDA for the first four months of FY23 driven by the reductions in deliveries and changes in product mix </li><li>Active customers (73k at July 2022): Increased +1.4% year on year (YoY), although this was offset by a fall in deliveries (-3.8% compared to July 2021)</li><li>Ongoing operational initiatives: The launch of loyalty campaigns and new product offerings in the quarter may see improvements in AOV and delivery frequency for the remainder of the year</li></ul>

MFB's lower-than-expected EBITDA for the first four months of FY23 driven by the reductions in deliveries and changes in product mix Active customers (73k at July 2022): Increased +1.4% year on year (YoY), although this was offset by a fall in deliveries (-3.8% compared to July 2021)Ongoing operational initiatives: The launch of loyalty campaigns and new product offerings in the quarter may see improvements in AOV and delivery frequency for the remainder of the year

My Food Bag (MFB): Four Month Trading Update – Initial Impressions

New Zealand

My Food Bag Group Limited provides catering services. The Company offers food bags and meal kits. My Food Bag serves customers in New Zealand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

My Food Bag Group Ltd (MFB NZ)

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

Retailers are facing a challenging outlook - although consumer spending has been generally robust over the past 12 months, the double-edged sword...

Forsyth Barr

My Food Bag: 1H23 Result — Missing Delivery

My Food Bag (MFB) released a disappointing 1H23 result, with NPAT materially lower than 1H22 and below both our and consensus forecasts - this was...

Forsyth Barr

My Food Bag (MFB): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

My Food Bag (MFB) released a disappointing 1H23 result, with NPAT of ~NZ$6m materially below 1H22’s ~NZ$9m (-40% lower); this is significantly...

Forsyth Barr

My Food Bag: Inflation Challenges Stirring the Pot

My Food Bag's profitability for the first four months of FY23 has been below expectations due to delivery reductions and product mix changes

Forsyth Barr

My Food Bag (MFB): Four Month Trading Update – Initial Impressions

MFB's lower-than-expected EBITDA for the first four months of FY23 driven by the reductions in deliveries and changes in product mix

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)