Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

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Equity Bottom-Up

Multi Bintang Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a>  delivered steady FY24 growth, with revenue and profits up 1.9% and 7.1% YoY, respectively. Q4 FY24, however, underperformed expectations with revenue/profits up 0.6%/1.7% YoY.</li>
<li>Although Q4 typically represents &gt;30% of overall annual revenue/profits, being the strongest season, its performance was disappointing compared to the strong 21%/35% YoY revenue/profit growth seen in Q3 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> represents tremendous value with a dividend yield of 9% (100% payout), ROEs exceeding 80%, and a cheap multiple of 11x FY24 PE. </li>
</ul>



Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)  delivered steady FY24 growth, with revenue and profits up 1.9% and 7.1% YoY, respectively. Q4 FY24, however, underperformed expectations with revenue/profits up 0.6%/1.7% YoY.
Although Q4 typically represents &gt;30% of overall annual revenue/profits, being the strongest season, its performance was disappointing compared to the strong 21%/35% YoY revenue/profit growth seen in Q3 2024.

Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) represents tremendous value with a dividend yield of 9% (100% payout), ROEs exceeding 80%, and a cheap multiple of 11x FY24 PE. 


Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Steady FY24, 9% Yield and >80% ROCE

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a>  saw significant inflection in Q3 FY24, with revenue and net profit growth of 21.9% and 35%, respectively. Strong growth is anticipated in Q4's high season.</li>
<li>Our confidence in MLBI's Q4 stems from Bali's impressive tourism statistics, registering a 17% YoY increase in Q3 FY24 and 19% YoY in Q4 FY24 (up to November).</li>
<li>With a 10.4x FY24e PE valuation, over 9% dividend yield, and historical ROCEs surpassing 80%, we believe the share price is at a turning point.</li>
</ul>



Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)  saw significant inflection in Q3 FY24, with revenue and net profit growth of 21.9% and 35%, respectively. Strong growth is anticipated in Q4's high season.
Our confidence in MLBI's Q4 stems from Bali's impressive tourism statistics, registering a 17% YoY increase in Q3 FY24 and 19% YoY in Q4 FY24 (up to November).
With a 10.4x FY24e PE valuation, over 9% dividend yield, and historical ROCEs surpassing 80%, we believe the share price is at a turning point.


Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Anticipating Strong Q4 FY24, 80% ROCE, and >9% Dividend Yield

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> experienced a massive inflection in its revenue with 21.9%/35% revenue/net profit growth as we approach the Q4 high season. </li>
<li>Earlier, parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21117:1" rel="noopener">Heineken NV (HEIA NA)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener"></a> had flagged in its H1 2024 report that Indonesia was experiencing double-digit growth following excise duties implemented in January 2024.</li>
<li>Trading at 11.5x FY24/net cash with &gt;8% dividend yield and historical ROCEs averaging over 80%, we see a turning point in the share price now. </li>
</ul>



Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) experienced a massive inflection in its revenue with 21.9%/35% revenue/net profit growth as we approach the Q4 high season. 
Earlier, parent Heineken NV (HEIA NA)  had flagged in its H1 2024 report that Indonesia was experiencing double-digit growth following excise duties implemented in January 2024.
Trading at 11.5x FY24/net cash with &gt;8% dividend yield and historical ROCEs averaging over 80%, we see a turning point in the share price now. 


Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Massive Inflection in Q3 FY24 with Double Digit Growth !!

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> reported Q2 2024 revenues/profits of -4.4%/-5.4% YoY. Q2 FY24 was a significant improvement over Q1 FY24, when revenues were down 10.7% YoY.</li>
<li>The company is controlling costs by keeping SG&amp;A down by 100 bps to maintain EBITDA margins over 50%. Net cash is now at 8% of the market capitalization.</li>
<li>We believe that the company will be able to pay 500/Rph of dividends in FY24, implying an 8.3% dividend yield. Trading at 12x PE, we find this idea compelling.</li>
</ul>



Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) reported Q2 2024 revenues/profits of -4.4%/-5.4% YoY. Q2 FY24 was a significant improvement over Q1 FY24, when revenues were down 10.7% YoY.
The company is controlling costs by keeping SG&amp;A down by 100 bps to maintain EBITDA margins over 50%. Net cash is now at 8% of the market capitalization.
We believe that the company will be able to pay 500/Rph of dividends in FY24, implying an 8.3% dividend yield. Trading at 12x PE, we find this idea compelling.


Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Q2 2024 Mediocre, But Dividend Yield At 8% for 70% ROCE Company

<ul>
<li>Recovery for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> has been underwhelming with revenue/PAT for Q3 2023 coming in at -3% YoY/10% YoY.</li>
<li>We expect the high season (holiday/festivity season) of Q4 to be comparatively better as 9M2023 revenue/PAT tracks 7% YoY/14% YoY, below our 15% assumption. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> as we are paid to wait in the name. The correction post earnings place it at 15.4x/12.7x PE FY23e/24e and 6% dividend yield. </li>
</ul>


Recovery for Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) has been underwhelming with revenue/PAT for Q3 2023 coming in at -3% YoY/10% YoY.
We expect the high season (holiday/festivity season) of Q4 to be comparatively better as 9M2023 revenue/PAT tracks 7% YoY/14% YoY, below our 15% assumption. 
We like Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) as we are paid to wait in the name. The correction post earnings place it at 15.4x/12.7x PE FY23e/24e and 6% dividend yield. 


Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) Q3 2023: Weaker Than Expected Recovery So Far

Indonesia

PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk manufactures beer. The Company's main products include beer and stout.

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Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)