Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.</li><li>US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in Europe</li><li>It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in EuropeIt’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?</li>
<li>China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?</li>
<li>UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.</li>
</ul>


The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?
China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?
UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.


The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed in October 2022.  Cycle set to expand further to a peak in late-2025</li>
<li>
 Federal Reserve liquidity already rising and driven over medium-term by need to monetize mandatory fiscal spending</li>
<li>
 Global Liquidity set to rise by US$12-15 trillion in 2024</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed in October 2022.  Cycle set to expand further to a peak in late-2025

 Federal Reserve liquidity already rising and driven over medium-term by need to monetize mandatory fiscal spending

 Global Liquidity set to rise by US$12-15 trillion in 2024


<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity cycle is rising and set to hit a peak sometime around late-2025. This is bullish for risk assets</li>
<li>The timing of the recovery from October 2022 aligns with past cycles, but its scale is far less. Things need to speed up.</li>
<li>The US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight for too long. 2024 will see a significant ease from US policy-makers</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity cycle is rising and set to hit a peak sometime around late-2025. This is bullish for risk assets
The timing of the recovery from October 2022 aligns with past cycles, but its scale is far less. Things need to speed up.
The US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight for too long. 2024 will see a significant ease from US policy-makers


Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

<ul>
<li>US policy makers signal the peak in Fed Funds rates and to imply rates cut cuts as soon as March 2024</li>
<li>
Fed Liquidity has risen by a whopping US$534 billion or 16.6% since the start of 2023</li>
<li>These moves are consistent with our long held view that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022 and is expanding towards a new peak in 2025.</li>
</ul>


US policy makers signal the peak in Fed Funds rates and to imply rates cut cuts as soon as March 2024

Fed Liquidity has risen by a whopping US$534 billion or 16.6% since the start of 2023
These moves are consistent with our long held view that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022 and is expanding towards a new peak in 2025.


United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put

Takeaways:– Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds. – US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

The Weekly Market Monitor! Start your week in financial markets, with some of last week’s biggest surprises, stories and charts.

Jeroen Blokland

Global Liquidity And The US Fed Pivot

What are the prospects for Global Liquidity in 2024? We expect Global Liquidity to expand by a further US$12-15 trillion, following last year’s...

Michael J. Howell

Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight, too long. 2024 will see major ease from US policy-makers. Global Liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

The 2024 Liquidity BOOM?

Stealth US easing has pushed Fed Liquidity up by 17% this year. This is consistent with our view that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in...

Michael J. Howell