Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Geopolitical risk analysis</strong> is much in fashion, especially in the Trump era</li>
<li>Geopolitical events prove statistically significant <em>per se</em>, but <strong>economically minor</strong> in their effects on markets</li>
<li>Far more important is prevailing <strong>risk positioning</strong> of investors</li>
<li>Using this analysis, 2021 will decent for stocks, but <strong>the UK</strong> looks a compelling investment, whereas <strong>Asian EM</strong> now look less interesting</li>
</ul>



Geopolitical risk analysis is much in fashion, especially in the Trump era
Geopolitical events prove statistically significant per se, but economically minor in their effects on markets
Far more important is prevailing risk positioning of investors
Using this analysis, 2021 will decent for stocks, but the UK looks a compelling investment, whereas Asian EM now look less interesting


How Important Will Be Trump’s Exit, Geopolitics and Warren Buffett to Investment Markets in 2021?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global <strong>Technology, Discretionary, </strong>and <strong>Manufacturing </strong>Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The <strong>Financial</strong> Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.</p>

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>Earlier this month, the term "vaccine hesitancy" saw record mentions across the media on concern of "staggeringly low" confidence in COVID-19 vaccines (as per President-Elect Biden in a December 3 CNN interview, for example)</li>
<li>Although official surveys still suggest uptake intentions are in the low-60%s, both survey data and our own sentiment data suggest these figures have been encouragingly moving in the right direction and continue to improve in the MTD, supporting prevailing consensus recovery views for 2021 predicated on the vaccine rollout</li>
<li>A potential concern on the issue of vaccine uptake is the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in the UK and potential public perception of reduced vaccine effectiveness as a result of mutations; thus far public health officials have dismissed such notions, but questions are likely to linger until more conclusive data is available</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p>
</div>


Earlier this month, the term "vaccine hesitancy" saw record mentions across the media on concern of "staggeringly low" confidence in COVID-19 vaccines (as per President-Elect Biden in a December 3 CNN interview, for example)
Although official surveys still suggest uptake intentions are in the low-60%s, both survey data and our own sentiment data suggest these figures have been encouragingly moving in the right direction and continue to improve in the MTD, supporting prevailing consensus recovery views for 2021 predicated on the vaccine rollout
A potential concern on the issue of vaccine uptake is the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in the UK and potential public perception of reduced vaccine effectiveness as a result of mutations; thus far public health officials have dismissed such notions, but questions are likely to linger until more conclusive data is available


TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 


TMI Snapshot:  Vaccine Hesitancy Stories Dominate the News, But Uptake Sentiment Is Improving

<p>Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.</p>

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

<div>• High levels of <strong>Global Liquidity</strong> and <strong>V-shaped</strong> Economic Rebound</div><div>• Economies, so far, <strong>rebounding faster</strong> than after 2008 GFC</div><div>• <strong>China</strong> has unusually not created much liquidity in 2020</div><div>• Latest evidence show a<strong>cceleration in Chinese Shadow Bank</strong> lending</div>

• High levels of Global Liquidity and V-shaped Economic Rebound• Economies, so far, rebounding faster than after 2008 GFC• China has unusually not created much liquidity in 2020• Latest evidence show acceleration in Chinese Shadow Bank lending

A Left-Field Thought: Will Rising Chinese Liquidity Trigger A World GDP Boom in 2021?

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

How Important Will Be Trump’s Exit, Geopolitics and Warren Buffett to Investment Markets in 2021?

Geopolitics are a popular background narrative to markets, but they make little difference to returns. What really matters is the portfolio...

Michael J. Howell

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns across indexes, and we continue to...

Vermilion Research

TMI Snapshot: Vaccine Hesitancy Stories Dominate the News, But Uptake Sentiment Is Improving

Despite elevated concerns on "vaccine hesitancy" in the media, we see sustained improvement in sentiment on COVID-19 vaccines in the MTD across a...

Elan Gore

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. In this report, we...

Vermilion Research

A Left-Field Thought: Will Rising Chinese Liquidity Trigger A World GDP Boom in 2021?

By easing restrictions on shadow bank lending China is boosting liquidity. Shadow bank credit is accelerating rapidly once again. This will boost...

Michael J. Howell