Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>All our forward-looking EPS indicators have shown improvement over the past few months. Nevertheless, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors anticipate the opposite. </li>
<li>Developed Market earnings per share are well above the long-term trend. One must make a compelling case for earnings to structurally grow faster to sustain this trend. </li>
<li>Big Tech’s earnings superiority has vanished. With a significant concentration of expensive stocks in Big Tech, earnings expectations must be exceptionally (perhaps unreasonably) high.</li>
</ul>


All our forward-looking EPS indicators have shown improvement over the past few months. Nevertheless, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors anticipate the opposite. 
Developed Market earnings per share are well above the long-term trend. One must make a compelling case for earnings to structurally grow faster to sustain this trend. 
Big Tech’s earnings superiority has vanished. With a significant concentration of expensive stocks in Big Tech, earnings expectations must be exceptionally (perhaps unreasonably) high.


Make or Break? A Close Examination of Company Earnings as We Head into Q3 Earnings Season

<ul>
<li>Contrary to many other Sentiment Indicators - which we don’t really understand - our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into ‘Frenzy.’</li>
<li>China is considering launching a state-backed stabilization fund to boost the Chinese stock market. We show what happened the last time China came up with a similar move. </li>
<li>Even though headline and core inflation were close to expectations, the underlying data signals trouble. Powell’s favorite CPI measure, SuperCore inflation, rose 7.6% on an annualized basis in September. </li>
</ul>


Contrary to many other Sentiment Indicators - which we don’t really understand - our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into ‘Frenzy.’
China is considering launching a state-backed stabilization fund to boost the Chinese stock market. We show what happened the last time China came up with a similar move. 
Even though headline and core inflation were close to expectations, the underlying data signals trouble. Powell’s favorite CPI measure, SuperCore inflation, rose 7.6% on an annualized basis in September. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Bad Inflation + Bad Sentiment = Bad Bounce?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>We’re here again for our weekly Portfolio Watch, and I must admit, it’s been a rather challenging week.</li><li>We found ourselves on the wrong side of the equity spread between CRAK and IYT. It’s ironic, really, as we initially thought the main risk was being fashionably late to the party.</li><li>Alas, it was the crack spreads that unexpectedly threw us off balance.</li></ul>

We’re here again for our weekly Portfolio Watch, and I must admit, it’s been a rather challenging week.We found ourselves on the wrong side of the equity spread between CRAK and IYT. It’s ironic, really, as we initially thought the main risk was being fashionably late to the party.Alas, it was the crack spreads that unexpectedly threw us off balance.

Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. </li>
<li>Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. </li>
<li>We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.</li>
</ul>


This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. 
Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. 
We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.</li><li>The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.</li><li>It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Make or Break? A Close Examination of Company Earnings as We Head into Q3 Earnings Season

Our forward-looking EPS indicators have improved. Yet, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Bad Inflation + Bad Sentiment = Bad Bounce?

Eurozone Equities are pricing in a massive improvement of the Credit Impulse (change in credit growth relative to GDP) that is unlikely to...

Jeroen Blokland

Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

We’re here again for our weekly Portfolio Watch, and I must admit, it’s been a rather challenging week. We found ourselves on the wrong side of the...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Defaults are rising, gasoline demand is falling out of bed, and price pressures reside despite spiking energy prices. Is the growth slump finally...

Jeroen Blokland

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch. The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few...

Steno Research