Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.</li>
<li>The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.</li>
</ul>


China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.
The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.


The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We have lifted the weight of Developed and Emerging Market Equities to Neutral and raise Bitcoin to Overweight.</li>
<li>The catalyst for these portfolio decisions is the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dominant market driver being the combination of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a soft landing, and ample liquidity.</li>
<li>Bitcoin is also one of the beneficiaries of growing worries about the speed of debt accumulation. In addition, the impact of US spot Bitcoin ETFs may drive Bitcoin’s price higher.</li>
</ul>


We have lifted the weight of Developed and Emerging Market Equities to Neutral and raise Bitcoin to Overweight.
The catalyst for these portfolio decisions is the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dominant market driver being the combination of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a soft landing, and ample liquidity.
Bitcoin is also one of the beneficiaries of growing worries about the speed of debt accumulation. In addition, the impact of US spot Bitcoin ETFs may drive Bitcoin’s price higher.


Portfolio Changes – Fed Exuberance = Equities Neutral, Long Bitcoin

<ul>
<li>In the past four months or so, stock prices haven’t done all that much. The MSCI World Index measured stands 1.5% higher than at the beginning of July.</li>
<li>However, cash has performed just as well as equities, or even slightly better in the case of the MSCI World Index, with much lower risk.</li>
<li>If we were to compare the Sharpe ratios (return divided by realized volatility) of stocks and cash over the past months, the gap between the two categories would be huge.</li>
</ul>


In the past four months or so, stock prices haven’t done all that much. The MSCI World Index measured stands 1.5% higher than at the beginning of July.
However, cash has performed just as well as equities, or even slightly better in the case of the MSCI World Index, with much lower risk.
If we were to compare the Sharpe ratios (return divided by realized volatility) of stocks and cash over the past months, the gap between the two categories would be huge.


Investing Is About Return and Risk – Update 34027

<ul>
<li>Our estimate of the fair value 10-year US Treasury yield currently stands at 4.63%.</li>
<li>With a difference of 38 basis points, the gap between the fair value estimate and the actual yield is historically large.</li>
<li>Hence, we adjust our portfolio and remove the overweight in Treasuries.</li>
</ul>


Our estimate of the fair value 10-year US Treasury yield currently stands at 4.63%.
With a difference of 38 basis points, the gap between the fair value estimate and the actual yield is historically large.
Hence, we adjust our portfolio and remove the overweight in Treasuries.


Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Everything is bottoming! Global Liquidity, stock markets, bond term premia, the World economy and even inflation pressures</li>
<li>We remain upbeat towards risk assets , but must acknowledge that the big gains are likely over for a while given gathering duration tensions in bond markets</li>
<li>The Global Liquidity cycle and asset allocation are unfolding on track in 2023. It is leading the World economy and currently sit in its Rebound investment phase</li>
</ul>


Everything is bottoming! Global Liquidity, stock markets, bond term premia, the World economy and even inflation pressures
We remain upbeat towards risk assets , but must acknowledge that the big gains are likely over for a while given gathering duration tensions in bond markets
The Global Liquidity cycle and asset allocation are unfolding on track in 2023. It is leading the World economy and currently sit in its Rebound investment phase


Global Liquidity: Where Are We In The Cycle?

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

China is throwing more liquidity at its real estate sector to save it. Powell is the new top dove while Europe struggles.

Jeroen Blokland

Portfolio Changes – Fed Exuberance = Equities Neutral, Long Bitcoin

Powell gave investors everything they wanted. We raise the weight of equities and 'front-run' the Bitcoin halving while also adding to gold.

Jeroen Blokland

Investing Is About Return and Risk – Update 34027

The Weekly Market Monitor keeps you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets. Investments highlighted:...

Jeroen Blokland

Bond Investors Are Overdoing It!

It was fun while it lasted. The gap between our fair value 10-year US Treasury yield and the actual yield has grown historically large. Hence, we...

Jeroen Blokland

Global Liquidity: Where Are We In The Cycle?

Understanding the Global Liquidity Cycle has proved valuable over the past few years. Reconsider this report which explains our asset allocation...

Michael J. Howell