Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Banco de México (Banxico) presented its Quarterly Report yesterday, in which it reinforces the idea that the rate cut on August 8th was justified by the current economic slowdown and the expectation that the price increases experienced by agricultural products during June and July will be reversed.</li>
<li>In this context, the Central Bank lowered its growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.5% for this year and from 1.5% to 1.2% for 2025.</li>
<li>This, along with the expected decrease in headline inflation to 4.4% during the fourth quarter of the year and the statements from the Board of Governors on the need to adjust the restrictive stance, supports our belief that Banxico plans to cut its reference rate in November and December.</li>
</ul>


Banco de México (Banxico) presented its Quarterly Report yesterday, in which it reinforces the idea that the rate cut on August 8th was justified by the current economic slowdown and the expectation that the price increases experienced by agricultural products during June and July will be reversed.
In this context, the Central Bank lowered its growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.5% for this year and from 1.5% to 1.2% for 2025.
This, along with the expected decrease in headline inflation to 4.4% during the fourth quarter of the year and the statements from the Board of Governors on the need to adjust the restrictive stance, supports our belief that Banxico plans to cut its reference rate in November and December.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Banxico Quarterly Report

<ul>
<li>Headline inflation increased by 0.21% bw, pressured by agricultural prices, returning to an annual rate of 4.78%.</li>
<li>Core inflation rose by 0.17% bw, returning to an annual rate of 4.17%.</li>
<li>Headline inflation was slightly above our estimate (0.21% vs. 0.19%), because some agricultural products registered higher price increases than estimated.</li>
</ul>


Headline inflation increased by 0.21% bw, pressured by agricultural prices, returning to an annual rate of 4.78%.
Core inflation rose by 0.17% bw, returning to an annual rate of 4.17%.
Headline inflation was slightly above our estimate (0.21% vs. 0.19%), because some agricultural products registered higher price increases than estimated.


<ul>
<li>We estimate headline inflation for the first half of June at 0.19% and core inflation at 0.24%.</li>
<li>Our forecast of 0.19% is higher than the historical 0.14%, as we anticipate a rebound in the prices of non-food merchandise that were discounted during the Hot Sale (May 15-23).</li>
<li>For this reason, our forecast for core inflation at 0.24% is above the historical 0.18%.</li>
</ul>


We estimate headline inflation for the first half of June at 0.19% and core inflation at 0.24%.
Our forecast of 0.19% is higher than the historical 0.14%, as we anticipate a rebound in the prices of non-food merchandise that were discounted during the Hot Sale (May 15-23).
For this reason, our forecast for core inflation at 0.24% is above the historical 0.18%.


Actinver - Macro Daily: Nowcast Inflation 1h-Jun

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Mexico

The MSCI Mexico Index is a free-float weighted equity index.

MSCI Mexico Index (MXMX INDEX)

Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Banxico Quarterly Report

Banco de México (Banxico) presented its Quarterly Report yesterday, in which it reinforces the idea that the rate cut on August 8th was justified...

Actinver

Actinver - Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Jun

Headline inflation increased by 0.21% bw, pressured by agricultural prices, returning to an annual rate of 4.78%. Core inflation rose by 0.17% bw,...

Actinver

Actinver - Macro Daily: Nowcast Inflation 1h-Jun

Our forecast of 0.19% is higher than the historical 0.14%, as we anticipate a rebound in the prices of non-food merchandise that were discounted...

Actinver

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research