Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US Fed announces QE4 in all but name</li>
<li>Decision to expand balance sheet by US$60 billion/ month via repos</li>
<li>Balance sheet will have to grow by at least another US$300-500 billion, ie circa 20%</li>
<li>This is a major warning for bonds. Previous QEs saw 100-150bp added to yields</li>
</ul>


US Fed announces QE4 in all but name
Decision to expand balance sheet by US$60 billion/ month via repos
Balance sheet will have to grow by at least another US$300-500 billion, ie circa 20%
This is a major warning for bonds. Previous QEs saw 100-150bp added to yields


The Fed Throws in the Powell (Err Towel) ... QE4 Is Here!

<ul>
<li>FOMC cuts rates 25bp in September and hints at more QE</li>
<li>Policy-makers appear willing to do more, but dissent growing inside Fed</li>
<li>Recent repo rate spikes do not portend another 2007/08, but they are a warning</li>
<li>Fed (and other Central Banks) need to massively expand their balance sheets</li>
</ul>


FOMC cuts rates 25bp in September and hints at more QE
Policy-makers appear willing to do more, but dissent growing inside Fed
Recent repo rate spikes do not portend another 2007/08, but they are a warning
Fed (and other Central Banks) need to massively expand their balance sheets


Another Financial Crisis? The US Repo’s Big Reverberations

<ul>
<li>Latest RRR cuts are only tactical and do NOT signal strategic monetary ease</li>
<li>
PBoC liquidity injections are the key monetary signal</li>
<li>
Liquidity jumped from May through July but August flat and September weak</li>
<li>No indication yet that PBoC easing aggressively….but they will</li>
</ul>


Latest RRR cuts are only tactical and do NOT signal strategic monetary ease

PBoC liquidity injections are the key monetary signal

Liquidity jumped from May through July but August flat and September weak
No indication yet that PBoC easing aggressively….but they will


Understanding Chinese Monetary Policy: Trying Hard to Ease?

<ul>
<li>Latest nowcast economic data show stronger Q3, 2019</li>
<li>
Shipping activity highlights bounce in July and August</li>
<li>
Global Liquidity conditions turning higher evidenced by rising gold</li>
<li>Bond markets heavily distorted by austerity policies and ‘safe’ asset shortage</li>
</ul>


Latest nowcast economic data show stronger Q3, 2019

Shipping activity highlights bounce in July and August

Global Liquidity conditions turning higher evidenced by rising gold
Bond markets heavily distorted by austerity policies and ‘safe’ asset shortage


The ‘Quick’ Recession … Is It Over Already? Latest Liquidity Data Agrees

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity remains weak</li>
<li>Warns of insufficient balance sheet capacity to roll-over our huge debts</li>
<li>This creates excess demand for ‘safe’ assets that explain low Treasury yields</li>
<li>Implies ‘true’ Fed Funds nearer-6% than 2¼%: US Fed still far too tight</li>
</ul>

 
Global Liquidity remains weak
Warns of insufficient balance sheet capacity to roll-over our huge debts
This creates excess demand for ‘safe’ assets that explain low Treasury yields
Implies ‘true’ Fed Funds nearer-6% than 2¼%: US Fed still far too tight


Up, Up and Downnnnnnnn… Why This Crisis Is About Finance (Again) And Not About The Economy

United States

MSCI Inc. provides investment decision support tools to investment institutions worldwide. The Company produces indices and risk and return portfolio analytics for use in managing investment portfolios.

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MSCI Inc (MSCI US)

The Fed Throws in the Powell (Err Towel) ... QE4 Is Here!

US Fed announces QE4 in all but name Decision to expand balance sheet by US$60 billion/ month via repos Balance sheet will have to grow by at...

Michael J. Howell

Another Financial Crisis? The US Repo’s Big Reverberations

FOMC cuts rates 25bp in September and hints at more QE Policy-makers appear willing to do more, but dissent growing inside Fed Recent repo rate...

Michael J. Howell

Understanding Chinese Monetary Policy: Trying Hard to Ease?

Latest RRR cuts are only tactical and do NOT signal strategic monetary ease PBoC liquidity injections are the key monetary signal Liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

The ‘Quick’ Recession … Is It Over Already? Latest Liquidity Data Agrees

Latest nowcast economic data show stronger Q3, 2019 Shipping activity highlights bounce in July and August Global Liquidity conditions turning...

Michael J. Howell

Up, Up and Downnnnnnnn… Why This Crisis Is About Finance (Again) And Not About The Economy

Global Liquidity remains weak Warns of insufficient balance sheet capacity to roll-over our huge debts This creates excess demand for ‘safe’...

Michael J. Howell

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)