Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

Even in 2020, China's M2 grew more than the US and EU; thus, despite a soaring trade surplus, foreign reserves were largely unchanged, suggesting large capital flight. Once the US$ stops depreciating, China will have to tighten monetary conditions. And with the rest of the world returning to near-normal by mid-2021, China's ability to export the excess capacity to which it added in Apr-Nov 2020 (with 9.6% YoY growth in FAI) will increasingly be constrained. Real GDP will decelerate to below 5% YoY growth in April-December 2021. Trim China holdings. Total Social Financing (TSF) has expanded by RMB 33 trillion (US$5.05 trillion) in January-November 2020, 56% YoY faster than the pace of new TSF in Jan-Nov 2019. The massive expansion in TSF enabled fixed asset investment (FAI) to rebound sharply after 1Q 2020, growing 9.7% YoY in April-November 2020 (much faster than the pace of FAI growth in 2019).  China was thus adding to its mountain of overcapacity in infrastructure, industry and real-estate in 2020. With much of the rest of the world locked down (especially in April-June, and only partially reopening thereafter), China has had an excellent 2020 -- using its excess capacity to export PPE (personal protective equipment), electronics/computers/parts to enable work-from-home, and also fill other gaps in global demand that other nations were unable to fill for much of the year. Steel is illustrative: in April 2020, China's steel output expanded 0.2% YoY, while the rest of the world's steel output declined 28.7% YoY. In October 2020, China's steel output rose 12.7% YoY, while the rest of the world's increased 2.3% YoY; in November, however, China's steel output decelerated to 8% YoY growth, while the rest of the world's accelerated to 5% YoY (although steel output was still declining in the US, Japan and South Korea). In 2021, once the rest of the world begins to operate nearer normal capacity, China's ability to grow abnormally fast will be severely constrained. China's M2 has not only expanded nearly 5-fold since August 2008 (while the US's has only expanded 2.5-fold over that period), it has also expanded more in Feb-Nov 2020 (by US$3.9 trillion) than US M2 (which rose by US$3.58 trillion in Feb-Nov 2020) or EU M2 (up by only US$2.2 trillion). The continued debasing of the RMB has led to capital flight -- despite an appreciating RMB (which should have made foreign-currency assets unattractive); the symptom was that foreign reserves stayed largely unchanged despite an ever-widening trade surplus. Once the US$ resumes strengthening, the PBOC will be obliged to rein in TSF by 2Q 2021, causing an economic deceleration, particularly of FAI. As trading partners erect barriers to China's dumping of its excess capacity, China's economic problems will be exacerbated, and real GDP will grow less 5% YoY in 2Q-4Q 2021, with financial-sector problems rising anew.  We recommend trimming China's weight in investor portfolios by March 2021.

Even in 2020, China's M2 grew more than the US and EU; thus, despite a soaring trade surplus, foreign reserves were largely unchanged, suggesting large capital flight. Once the US$ stops depreciating, China will have to tighten monetary conditions. And with the rest of the world returning to near-normal by mid-2021, China's ability to export the excess capacity to which it added in Apr-Nov 2020 (with 9.6% YoY growth in FAI) will increasingly be constrained. Real GDP will decelerate to below 5% YoY growth in April-December 2021. Trim China holdings. Total Social Financing (TSF) has expanded by RMB 33 trillion (US$5.05 trillion) in January-November 2020, 56% YoY faster than the pace of new TSF in Jan-Nov 2019. The massive expansion in TSF enabled fixed asset investment (FAI) to rebound sharply after 1Q 2020, growing 9.7% YoY in April-November 2020 (much faster than the pace of FAI growth in 2019).  China was thus adding to its mountain of overcapacity in infrastructure, industry and real-estate in 2020. With much of the rest of the world locked down (especially in April-June, and only partially reopening thereafter), China has had an excellent 2020 -- using its excess capacity to export PPE (personal protective equipment), electronics/computers/parts to enable work-from-home, and also fill other gaps in global demand that other nations were unable to fill for much of the year. Steel is illustrative: in April 2020, China's steel output expanded 0.2% YoY, while the rest of the world's steel output declined 28.7% YoY. In October 2020, China's steel output rose 12.7% YoY, while the rest of the world's increased 2.3% YoY; in November, however, China's steel output decelerated to 8% YoY growth, while the rest of the world's accelerated to 5% YoY (although steel output was still declining in the US, Japan and South Korea). In 2021, once the rest of the world begins to operate nearer normal capacity, China's ability to grow abnormally fast will be severely constrained. China's M2 has not only expanded nearly 5-fold since August 2008 (while the US's has only expanded 2.5-fold over that period), it has also expanded more in Feb-Nov 2020 (by US$3.9 trillion) than US M2 (which rose by US$3.58 trillion in Feb-Nov 2020) or EU M2 (up by only US$2.2 trillion). The continued debasing of the RMB has led to capital flight -- despite an appreciating RMB (which should have made foreign-currency assets unattractive); the symptom was that foreign reserves stayed largely unchanged despite an ever-widening trade surplus. Once the US$ resumes strengthening, the PBOC will be obliged to rein in TSF by 2Q 2021, causing an economic deceleration, particularly of FAI. As trading partners erect barriers to China's dumping of its excess capacity, China's economic problems will be exacerbated, and real GDP will grow less 5% YoY in 2Q-4Q 2021, with financial-sector problems rising anew.  We recommend trimming China's weight in investor portfolios by March 2021.  

China Has Had a Great 2020, but Over-Capacity Will Cause Headaches in 2021

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>According to FT, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> digital currency project, Libra, is preparing to launch as early as January 2021 and its value will be backed by a single currency, the US dollar. This project is still awaiting approval from FINMA (the Swiss-based Financial Market Supervisory Authority) and will works as a stablecoin, which is much less volatile than cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. </li>
<li>We view the slim-down version of Libra, now called Diem, as a feasible alternative to original proposal. The full-blown version 2.0 of Libra is backed by multiple currencies (such as USD, EUR, and GBP). And 1 Libra is proposed to be calculated as 0.5 LibraUSD, 0.3 LibraEUR, and 0.2 LibraGBP. However, multiple currency reserve will pose addition regulatory obstacles, as how much weights and what currency will be determined. With Libra is backed by USD only now, there is not much road blocks for Libra to be launched next year. </li>
<li>China is accelerating its efforts to launch its sovereign digital currency. In October, the People’s Bank of China published a draft law that would give legal status to the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system, and for the first time the digital yuan has been included and defined as part of the country’s sovereign fiat currency. The broad acceptance and launches of digital currency is the high conviction idea for 2021, such as China's Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> Libra/Diem projects. We have highlighted China's race to digital currency in the following: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-a-share-strategy-leading-the-race-for-digital-currency" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China A-Share Strategy: Leading the Race for Digital Currency</a>
</li>
</ul>


According to FT, Facebook Inc A (FB US) digital currency project, Libra, is preparing to launch as early as January 2021 and its value will be backed by a single currency, the US dollar. This project is still awaiting approval from FINMA (the Swiss-based Financial Market Supervisory Authority) and will works as a stablecoin, which is much less volatile than cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. 
We view the slim-down version of Libra, now called Diem, as a feasible alternative to original proposal. The full-blown version 2.0 of Libra is backed by multiple currencies (such as USD, EUR, and GBP). And 1 Libra is proposed to be calculated as 0.5 LibraUSD, 0.3 LibraEUR, and 0.2 LibraGBP. However, multiple currency reserve will pose addition regulatory obstacles, as how much weights and what currency will be determined. With Libra is backed by USD only now, there is not much road blocks for Libra to be launched next year. 
China is accelerating its efforts to launch its sovereign digital currency. In October, the People’s Bank of China published a draft law that would give legal status to the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system, and for the first time the digital yuan has been included and defined as part of the country’s sovereign fiat currency. The broad acceptance and launches of digital currency is the high conviction idea for 2021, such as China's Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system and Facebook Inc A (FB US) Libra/Diem projects. We have highlighted China's race to digital currency in the following: China A-Share Strategy: Leading the Race for Digital Currency



Digital Currency: Still Remember Facebook Libra/Diem ?

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Last week we wrote that accelerating economic integration in the Greater Bay Area is  lies at the heart of China’s strategy to win the battle for economic supremacy.  It is key to China’s future economic prosperity and, directly counters America’s China containment strategy. Beijing recognises China containment will remain the lynchpin of US foreign policy. A Biden US presidency ensures that development of the GBA is only set to speed up. Companies are investing in next generation industries to meet the wants of the GBA’s tech-savvy consumers and are optimistic about revenue growth over the next three years. For investors seeking superior returns the case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger.

Last week we wrote that accelerating economic integration in the Greater Bay Area is  lies at the heart of China’s strategy to win the battle for economic supremacy.  It is key to China’s future economic prosperity and, directly counters America’s China containment strategy. Beijing recognises China containment will remain the lynchpin of US foreign policy. A Biden US presidency ensures that development of the GBA is only set to speed up. Companies are investing in next generation industries to meet the wants of the GBA’s tech-savvy consumers and are optimistic about revenue growth over the next three years. For investors seeking superior returns the case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger. 

Biden Vs. Xi - What Are Businesses Doing?

<ul>
<li>China is accelerating its efforts to launch its sovereign digital currency. In October, the People’s Bank of China published a draft law that would give legal status to the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system, and for the first time the digital yuan has been included and defined as part of the country’s sovereign fiat currency.</li>
<li>Pilot testing of China’s DC/EP system has rolled out recently in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Xiong’an and Chengdu. The digital currency will also feature at the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022. In the public testing in Shenzhen, "red pockets" valued at RMB200 each have been distributed to 50,000 residents to use in 3,000 local retail stores and restaurants. The pilot program has shown 2 distinct features for DC/EP system: 1) the use of DC/EP app does not require an existed bank account, this will target to serve any non-bank customers; 2) DC/EP app uses QR code or NFC for payment, which is similar to popular Wechat or Alipay system. We believe these payment methods will facilitate the wide adoption of DC/EP system.</li>
<li>PBoC’s DC/EP is fundamentally different to crypto currencies and stablecoins. Its main function, is to partially replace paper cash (M0) and supplement retail ePayments (C2C or C2B) in China. We believe the success of pilot DC/EP system will pave way for a solution for cashless environment. China is leading the race for digital currency. </li>
</ul><div data-v-5a0444bf=""></div>


China is accelerating its efforts to launch its sovereign digital currency. In October, the People’s Bank of China published a draft law that would give legal status to the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system, and for the first time the digital yuan has been included and defined as part of the country’s sovereign fiat currency.
Pilot testing of China’s DC/EP system has rolled out recently in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Xiong’an and Chengdu. The digital currency will also feature at the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022. In the public testing in Shenzhen, "red pockets" valued at RMB200 each have been distributed to 50,000 residents to use in 3,000 local retail stores and restaurants. The pilot program has shown 2 distinct features for DC/EP system: 1) the use of DC/EP app does not require an existed bank account, this will target to serve any non-bank customers; 2) DC/EP app uses QR code or NFC for payment, which is similar to popular Wechat or Alipay system. We believe these payment methods will facilitate the wide adoption of DC/EP system.
PBoC’s DC/EP is fundamentally different to crypto currencies and stablecoins. Its main function, is to partially replace paper cash (M0) and supplement retail ePayments (C2C or C2B) in China. We believe the success of pilot DC/EP system will pave way for a solution for cashless environment. China is leading the race for digital currency. 


China A-Share Strategy: Leading the Race for Digital Currency

<ul>
<li>We expect China A-share companies' fundamental will be improved sequentially in 4Q20 and 1Q21, led by domestic consumption and cyclical sectors. Thanks to the strict control and mass virus testing, China is in a leading position to contain COVID-19 cases and will be one of the few countries that could deliver upturn growth. For example, air travel and tourism have recovered 90% and 80% respectively to pre-COVID level. </li>
<li>China's September and October total social financing (TSF) came in at RMB 3.5 trillion and 1.4 trillion respectively, which delivered 13.5% year-over-year balance growth in September and 13.7% in October . We expected a sequential downward movement of TSF balance post the peak in September-October. PBoC had injected abnormal liquidity into the system in 1st half 2020 to fight pandemic, we believe the monetary policy will be more controlled in 2021 and the growth of TSF will gradually decelerate. </li>
<li>We expect domestic consumption will pose strong growth compared with lower bases, given the total lockdown in China in early 2020. With the proliferation of mobile internet and increase of dispensable income,  we believe there are many innovations in consumption, such as new dining format, food delivery, online sale streaming and etc. This is also one of the area we observe the biggest inflow of foreign institutional funds in A-share market.</li>
</ul>


We expect China A-share companies' fundamental will be improved sequentially in 4Q20 and 1Q21, led by domestic consumption and cyclical sectors. Thanks to the strict control and mass virus testing, China is in a leading position to contain COVID-19 cases and will be one of the few countries that could deliver upturn growth. For example, air travel and tourism have recovered 90% and 80% respectively to pre-COVID level. 
China's September and October total social financing (TSF) came in at RMB 3.5 trillion and 1.4 trillion respectively, which delivered 13.5% year-over-year balance growth in September and 13.7% in October . We expected a sequential downward movement of TSF balance post the peak in September-October. PBoC had injected abnormal liquidity into the system in 1st half 2020 to fight pandemic, we believe the monetary policy will be more controlled in 2021 and the growth of TSF will gradually decelerate. 
We expect domestic consumption will pose strong growth compared with lower bases, given the total lockdown in China in early 2020. With the proliferation of mobile internet and increase of dispensable income,  we believe there are many innovations in consumption, such as new dining format, food delivery, online sale streaming and etc. This is also one of the area we observe the biggest inflow of foreign institutional funds in A-share market.


China A-Share Strategy: Strong Fundamental Recovery and Decelerated Liquidity Growth

China

The MSCI China Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1992.

MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX)

China Has Had a Great 2020, but Over-Capacity Will Cause Headaches in 2021

TSF (Jan-Nov 2020) expanded by 56% YoY, enabling FAI to grow 9.6% YoY in Apr-Nov20. But this exacerbated excess capacity. By mid-'21, tighter...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Digital Currency: Still Remember Facebook Libra/Diem ?

The broad acceptance and launches of digital currency is the high conviction idea for 2021, such as China's Digital Currency Electronic Payment...

Roger Xie

Biden Vs. Xi - What Are Businesses Doing?

The case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger. Companies are investing in next generation industries and are optimistic about...

Sharmila Whelan

China Has Had a Great 2020, but Over-Capacity Will Cause Headaches in 2021

TSF (Jan-Nov 2020) expanded by 56% YoY, enabling FAI to grow 9.6% YoY in Apr-Nov20. But this exacerbated excess capacity. By mid-'21, tighter...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Digital Currency: Still Remember Facebook Libra/Diem ?

The broad acceptance and launches of digital currency is the high conviction idea for 2021, such as China's Digital Currency Electronic Payment...

Roger Xie

Biden Vs. Xi - What Are Businesses Doing?

The case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger. Companies are investing in next generation industries and are optimistic about...

Sharmila Whelan

China A-Share Strategy: Leading the Race for Digital Currency

We believe the success of pilot DC/EP system will pave way for a solution for cashless environment. China is leading the race for digital currency.

Roger Xie

China A-Share Strategy: Strong Fundamental Recovery and Decelerated Liquidity Growth

We expect China A-share companies' fundamental will be improved sequentially in 4Q20 and 1Q21, but the growth of liquidity will gradually decelerate.

Roger Xie