Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Three macro-factors matter for the EM asset class</li>
<li>
Cross-border capital flows have yet to turn higher</li>
<li>Investors' risk seeking appetite has plunged, but still stands well-above previous lows</li>
<li>
US dollar likely to remain modestly firm</li>
</ul>


Three macro-factors matter for the EM asset class

Cross-border capital flows have yet to turn higher
Investors' risk seeking appetite has plunged, but still stands well-above previous lows

US dollar likely to remain modestly firm


Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Over the past 2 years, we have monitored publicly available online English language 'Western' news headlines from around 10 major mainstream sources, for anything related to China. Around 30,000 headlines later, we've now applied word frequency analysis techniques to see what's been gaining or losing coverage in 2018 (for some technical/background details see a footnote below) and the overall sentiment. While this does not carry predictive powers, it may be interesting to watch for changes in narratives and any shifts in perception-shaping media coverage.

Over the past 2 years, we have monitored publicly available online English language 'Western' news headlines from around 10 major mainstream sources, for anything related to China. Around 30,000 headlines later, we've now applied word frequency analysis techniques to see what's been gaining or losing coverage in 2018 (for some technical/background details see a footnote below) and the overall sentiment. While this does not carry predictive powers, it may be interesting to watch for changes in narratives and any shifts in perception-shaping media coverage.

Sentiment On China - What Got Hot, What Faded In 2018 In Media Coverage

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

In August the Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged for the tenth month at 1.5%. No one was surprised. The central bank’s job is done. We expect Korean policy rates to stay on hold for the rest of this year. The BoK like the government is worried about the economy’s loss of growth momentum. Both have trimmed their growth forecasts for this year to 2.9% from 3%. Further downgrades cannot be ruled out

In August the Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged for the tenth month at 1.5%. No one was surprised. The central bank’s job is done. We expect Korean policy rates to stay on hold for the rest of this year. The BoK like the government is worried about the economy’s loss of growth momentum. Both have trimmed their growth forecasts for this year to 2.9% from 3%. Further downgrades cannot be ruled out

Korea - BoK To Stay On Hold For Rest Of 2018

<ul>
<li>We fingerprint the 'typical' Emerging Market Crisis</li>
<li>All EM Crises are 'first-and-foremost' currency crises</li>
<li>The 2018 EM sell-off looks similar, but the cause is the stronger US dollar NOT EM economic imbalances</li>
<li>Conclusion: currency moves are cyclical. Cash generation of EM economies still looks robust</li>
</ul>


We fingerprint the 'typical' Emerging Market Crisis
All EM Crises are 'first-and-foremost' currency crises
The 2018 EM sell-off looks similar, but the cause is the stronger US dollar NOT EM economic imbalances
Conclusion: currency moves are cyclical. Cash generation of EM economies still looks robust


Why Emerging Markets Really Are Different This Time

The NBS house price growth indices data for 70 major cities in July was released earlier today and shows an accelerating month-on-month and year-on-year growth, after a broadly stable pace of year-on-year growth over the recent months. Yet, watch out for the data caveat in how such averages are computed, and its implications for accurate data interpretation.

The NBS house price growth indices data for 70 major cities in July was released earlier today and shows an accelerating month-on-month and year-on-year growth, after a broadly stable pace of year-on-year growth over the recent months. Yet, watch out for the data caveat in how such averages are computed, and its implications for accurate data interpretation.

Today's China House Price Data: The Prices Rise Faster... But Beware The Arithmetics Of Averages

China

The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1987.

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (MXASJ INDEX)

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (MXASJ INDEX)

So, When Will EM Recover?

Three macro-factors matter for the EM asset class Cross-border capital flows have yet to turn higher Investors' risk seeking appetite has...

Michael J. Howell

Sentiment On China - What Got Hot, What Faded In 2018 In Media Coverage

Over the past 2 years, we have monitored publicly available online English language 'Western' news headlines from around 10 major mainstream...

Robert Ciemniak

Korea - BoK To Stay On Hold For Rest Of 2018

In August the Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged for the tenth month at 1.5%. No one was surprised. The central bank’s job is done. We...

Sharmila Whelan

Why Emerging Markets Really Are Different This Time

We fingerprint the 'typical' Emerging Market Crisis All EM Crises are 'first-and-foremost' currency crises The 2018 EM sell-off looks similar, but...

Michael J. Howell

Today's China House Price Data: The Prices Rise Faster... But Beware The Arithmetics Of Averages

The NBS house price growth indices data for 70 major cities in July was released earlier today and shows an accelerating month-on-month and...

Robert Ciemniak