Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week Friday, JSE indices were rebalanced in the closing auction. Turnover for the day was R53.7bn, R37bn traded in the closing auction (68%).</li>
<li>Turnover at the June rebalance was R58bn, 66% traded in the closing auction.</li>
<li>Foreign activity in MRP on Friday suggests that there was a large buyer, despite muted index weight changes.</li>
</ul>


Last week Friday, JSE indices were rebalanced in the closing auction. Turnover for the day was R53.7bn, R37bn traded in the closing auction (68%).
Turnover at the June rebalance was R58bn, 66% traded in the closing auction.
Foreign activity in MRP on Friday suggests that there was a large buyer, despite muted index weight changes.


JSE Sep24 Rebalance: Foreigners Bid up MRP, PPH Trades 11 Times ADV

<ul>
<li>Global indices are due for rebalancing during the closing auction on Friday. Constituent changes will be announced after the close next week Monday.</li>
<li>In this note we flag <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-price-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27680:1" rel="noopener">Mr Price Group Ltd (MRP SJ)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/african-rainbow-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25078:1" rel="noopener">African Rainbow Minerals (ARI SJ)</a> as possible additions to the South Africa index.</li>
<li>Since our last discount update on the 22nd of July, Prosus has underperformed Naspers. The discount has widened by 1.7 percentage points to 39.6%.</li>
</ul>


Global indices are due for rebalancing during the closing auction on Friday. Constituent changes will be announced after the close next week Monday.
In this note we flag Mr Price Group Ltd (MRP SJ) &amp; African Rainbow Minerals (ARI SJ) as possible additions to the South Africa index.
Since our last discount update on the 22nd of July, Prosus has underperformed Naspers. The discount has widened by 1.7 percentage points to 39.6%.


Aug 24 Indices Rebalance: South Africa Post-Election Tailwind? MRP, ARI Potential Adds

Northam Platinum Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The annual WisdomTree rebalance takes place next week Wednesday in the closing auction. Turnover on the JSE at the rebalance last year (20 Oct) was R30.6bn, 1.5 times the 5-day average.</li>
<li>
<p>There are several SA stocks being added to and deleted from the range of WisdomTree EM funds.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Our buy flow estimate for SA additions is R1.3bn, our sell flow estimate for SA deletions is R1.8bn. This excludes up and down weightings.</p>
</li>
</ul>


The annual WisdomTree rebalance takes place next week Wednesday in the closing auction. Turnover on the JSE at the rebalance last year (20 Oct) was R30.6bn, 1.5 times the 5-day average.

There are several SA stocks being added to and deleted from the range of WisdomTree EM funds.


Our buy flow estimate for SA additions is R1.3bn, our sell flow estimate for SA deletions is R1.8bn. This excludes up and down weightings.



WisdomTree Oct 2023 Rebalance (Wed, 18 Oct)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure</li>
<li>And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure
And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.


Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

South Africa

Mr. Price Group Limited operates chains of retailers throughout South Africa. The Group retails clothing, accessories, homewares and jewelery.

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Mr Price Group Ltd (MRP SJ)

JSE Sep24 Rebalance: Foreigners Bid up MRP, PPH Trades 11 Times ADV

A summary of trade analytics for the September rebalance. Foreign activity suggests a large buyer in MRP. PPH entered the Top 40, AMS fell out.

DMA

Aug 24 Indices Rebalance: South Africa Post-Election Tailwind? MRP, ARI Potential Adds

In this note we flag MRP and ARI as possible additions to the SA index, given the relative outperformance of the local market and at an individual...

DMA

WisdomTree Oct 2023 Rebalance (Wed, 18 Oct)

The annual WisdomTree rebalance takes place next week Wednesday in the closing auction. Turnover on the JSE at the rebalance last year (20 Oct) was...

DMA

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

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