Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it.  There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios. ... </p><p>I didn’t think he’d manage it. His indiscretions seemed too large, his gaffes too many. But what we saw, with some 1+m Trump win of the popular vote, was the forgotten rural Americans voting anti-Clinton in greater numbers than expected, particularly in Blue Belt (Rust Belt) areas of the US Center. All while doing what Trump said he would do in…</p>

It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it.  There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios. ... I didn’t think he’d manage it. His indiscretions seemed too large, his gaffes too many. But what we saw, with some 1+m Trump win of the popular vote, was the forgotten rural Americans voting anti-Clinton in greater numbers than expected, particularly in Blue Belt (Rust Belt) areas of the US Center. All while doing what Trump said he would do in…

Against [Official] Odds It's a Trump USA Now

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears
The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.

The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of…


Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<p>Yesterday's high court ruling stating that parliament must have a say before any triggering of Article 50 to start the process for Britain to leave the EU puts us at point 7 in my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-path-to-no-brexit" target="_blank">path to no Brexit</a>.</p><p>The reaction from the pro-Brexit press and prominent individuals has been sharp, from declaring the judges in question as enemies of the nation (The Daily Mail) to saying this is the darkest day for the UK since World War II and for readers to fight, fight, fight (The Daily Express).</p><p>Coming five months…</p>

Yesterday's high court ruling stating that parliament must have a say before any triggering of Article 50 to start the process for Britain to leave the EU puts us at point 7 in my path to no Brexit.The reaction from the pro-Brexit press and prominent individuals has been sharp, from declaring the judges in question as enemies of the nation (The Daily Mail) to saying this is the darkest day for the UK since World War II and for readers to fight, fight, fight (The Daily Express).Coming five months…

Amareos

Ryan Shea

<p>As any parent will confirm, teenagers know one thing. Unfortunately, it is “every”-thing. The rest of the population, by contrast, recognizes and appreciates the complexity of the world in which we inhabit, all the uncertainty that this necessarily generates, and the associated risks.</p><p>Borrowing the lexicon of Donald Rumsfeld, there are two types of risk that we regularly encounter: unknown-unknowns and known-unknowns. As investors we can’t do much about the former, but we can do something about the latter. Indeed, this is the bread and butter of risk managers around the world.</p><p>Crowd-sourced sentiment indicators provide a new additional tool for investors to monitor and assess a wide variety of financial market risks.  In this note, we demonstrate their applicability before going on to assess the short-run and long-run risks for US equities; particularly pertinent given two substantial known-unknowns looming on the near-horizon, namely the US Presidential election campaign and the upcoming FOMC meetings.</p>

As any parent will confirm, teenagers know one thing. Unfortunately, it is “every”-thing. The rest of the population, by contrast, recognizes and appreciates the complexity of the world in which we inhabit, all the uncertainty that this necessarily generates, and the associated risks.Borrowing the lexicon of Donald Rumsfeld, there are two types of risk that we regularly encounter: unknown-unknowns and known-unknowns. As investors we can’t do much about the former, but we can do something about the latter. Indeed, this is the bread and butter of risk managers around the world.Crowd-sourced sentiment indicators provide a new additional tool for investors to monitor and assess a wide variety of financial market risks.  In this note, we demonstrate their applicability before going on to assess the short-run and long-run risks for US equities; particularly pertinent given two substantial known-unknowns looming on the near-horizon, namely the US Presidential election campaign and the upcoming FOMC meetings.

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

<p>Campaign promises rarely turn into specific actions, but when they do, they are necessarily impacted by the dynamics of the legislative process. History suggests, however, that the policies of candidates can be a predictor of likely regulatory trends.</p>

Campaign promises rarely turn into specific actions, but when they do, they are necessarily impacted by the dynamics of the legislative process. History suggests, however, that the policies of candidates can be a predictor of likely regulatory trends.

Implications of the 2016 Election for Banks and Systemically Important Financial Institutions

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

Against [Official] Odds It's a Trump USA Now

It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it. There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios....

Charles De Trenck

Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were...

Sean Maher

Brexit: Judgement Versus Obedience

Yesterday's high court ruling stating that parliament must have a say before any triggering of Article 50 to start the process for Britain to leave...

Emad Mostaque

Risk: Dealing With Known-Unknowns

As any parent will confirm, teenagers know one thing. Unfortunately, it is “every”-thing. The rest of the population, by contrast, recognizes and...

Amareos

Implications of the 2016 Election for Banks and Systemically Important Financial Institutions

Campaign promises rarely turn into specific actions, but when they do, they are necessarily impacted by the dynamics of the legislative process....

Dechert LLP

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52-week Range

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