Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CTOS Digital (CTOS) aims to raise up to US$291m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. CTOS is an investment holding whose subsidiaries are principally involved in the business of credit reporting, digital software related services, software development, outsourcing and training services and investment holding. CTOS was the largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 71.2% in 2020 according to the IMR Report. Its associate, Experian, was the second largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia, with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 17.5%.We covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ctos-digital-pre-ipo-credit-where-credit-s-due" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CTOS Digital Pre-IPO - Credit where credit’s due</a>.In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.

CTOS Digital (CTOS) aims to raise up to US$291m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. CTOS is an investment holding whose subsidiaries are principally involved in the business of credit reporting, digital software related services, software development, outsourcing and training services and investment holding. CTOS was the largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 71.2% in 2020 according to the IMR Report. Its associate, Experian, was the second largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia, with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 17.5%.We covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, CTOS Digital Pre-IPO - Credit where credit’s due.In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.

CTOS Digital IPO - Market Leader, Strong PE Record and Cornerstone

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

We see those big numbers in the press, almost daily it seems. About ESG assets under management (AUM) reaching US$40 trillion, expected to hit US$53 trillion by 2025. Or about quarterly ESG fund flows nearing US$100 billion, and the seismic shift in ESG AUM to passively-managed funds.Recent growth in SRI (sustainable and responsible investing) and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) assets and investment products would not be possible without the growing ecosystem of index providers, and the SRI/ESG indices and benchmarks that they create.The ongoing boom in SRI/ESG indexing, which shows no signs of slowing, creates new opportunies for investors – and I do not mean investing in indexed mutual funds or ETFs. Too obvious, and too retail. I am referring to emergent opportunities associated with SRI/ESG index arbitrage.Index rebalancing/reconstitution events often create windows of abnormal returns for constituents being re-weighted, added, or dropped. That much is obvious, and the effects of broad market index changes are well-known. For SRI/ESG indices, this is uncharted territory with huge potential.This Smartkarma Original looks at the evolving SRI/ESG indexing landscape, and more importantly the emergent investing (e.g., stocks of listed indexers) and trading (e.g., arbitraging index changes) strategies arising from this global boom in SRI/ESG indices... from an Original perspective.<h2>WHAT'S ORIGINAL?</h2>Typically, discussions about SRI/ESG indices focus on their performance and in the context of that age-old "ESG-Alpha" debate – i.e., whether incorporating ESG factors into the investment process is worth the effort. To be clear, that is an important debate to have (and win). However, this report takes a different angle on SRI/ESG indices by focusing on investing and trading and strategies that capitalise on the boom in SRI/ESG indices. Theory (and a little speculation) backed by analysis.

We see those big numbers in the press, almost daily it seems. About ESG assets under management (AUM) reaching US$40 trillion, expected to hit US$53 trillion by 2025. Or about quarterly ESG fund flows nearing US$100 billion, and the seismic shift in ESG AUM to passively-managed funds.Recent growth in SRI (sustainable and responsible investing) and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) assets and investment products would not be possible without the growing ecosystem of index providers, and the SRI/ESG indices and benchmarks that they create.The ongoing boom in SRI/ESG indexing, which shows no signs of slowing, creates new opportunies for investors – and I do not mean investing in indexed mutual funds or ETFs. Too obvious, and too retail. I am referring to emergent opportunities associated with SRI/ESG index arbitrage.Index rebalancing/reconstitution events often create windows of abnormal returns for constituents being re-weighted, added, or dropped. That much is obvious, and the effects of broad market index changes are well-known. For SRI/ESG indices, this is uncharted territory with huge potential.This Smartkarma Original looks at the evolving SRI/ESG indexing landscape, and more importantly the emergent investing (e.g., stocks of listed indexers) and trading (e.g., arbitraging index changes) strategies arising from this global boom in SRI/ESG indices... from an Original perspective.WHAT'S ORIGINAL?Typically, discussions about SRI/ESG indices focus on their performance and in the context of that age-old "ESG-Alpha" debate – i.e., whether incorporating ESG factors into the investment process is worth the effort. To be clear, that is an important debate to have (and win). However, this report takes a different angle on SRI/ESG indices by focusing on investing and trading and strategies that capitalise on the boom in SRI/ESG indices. Theory (and a little speculation) backed by analysis.

Sustainability and ESG Indices: A Booming Ecosystem and New Investing and Trading Opportunities

This Insight is a relatively brief, high-level overview of the sustainability framework ecosystem. It will be followed (soon) by deeper dives into individual frameworks, starting with the "Big Three."<ol>
<li>
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a framework for society-level sustainability</li>
<li>
Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), a company-level framework for a very broad audience</li>
<li>
Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB), company-level but investor-focused</li>
</ol>These Insights aren't merely an academic exercise.They will have educational value vis-à-vis sustainable/ESG investing, but their primary purpose is as context for upcoming reports on integrating the SDGs into ESG investing strategies, such as:<ul>
<li>
ESG Alpha: Mapping country-level SDG data to securities since larger diversified portfolios are often impacted by SDG outcomes; SDGS serving as a barometer for macro risk and alpha.</li>
<li>
ESG Impact: Mapping security-level ESG performance (based on GRI and SASB standards) to the SDGs, guiding securities selection in a way that enhances a portfolio's societal impact.</li>
</ul>After explaining key concepts like global sustainability, sustainable development, and the Triple Bottom Line – all prerequisites to the framework stuff – the report roughly takes this outline:<ul>
<li>Overview of the sustainable investing spectrum and relative prioritsation of alpha and impact</li>
<li>Bird's-eye view of the overall sustainability/ESG ecosystem (framework, standards, and other)</li>
<li>Quick sight-seeing sojourn to look at the handful of listed companies dotting this landscape</li>
<li>Final destination, an overview of the "Big Three" and other major sustainability frameworks</li>
</ul>

This Insight is a relatively brief, high-level overview of the sustainability framework ecosystem. It will be followed (soon) by deeper dives into individual frameworks, starting with the "Big Three."

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a framework for society-level sustainability

Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), a company-level framework for a very broad audience

Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB), company-level but investor-focused
These Insights aren't merely an academic exercise.They will have educational value vis-à-vis sustainable/ESG investing, but their primary purpose is as context for upcoming reports on integrating the SDGs into ESG investing strategies, such as:

ESG Alpha: Mapping country-level SDG data to securities since larger diversified portfolios are often impacted by SDG outcomes; SDGS serving as a barometer for macro risk and alpha.

ESG Impact: Mapping security-level ESG performance (based on GRI and SASB standards) to the SDGs, guiding securities selection in a way that enhances a portfolio's societal impact.
After explaining key concepts like global sustainability, sustainable development, and the Triple Bottom Line – all prerequisites to the framework stuff – the report roughly takes this outline:
Overview of the sustainable investing spectrum and relative prioritsation of alpha and impact
Bird's-eye view of the overall sustainability/ESG ecosystem (framework, standards, and other)
Quick sight-seeing sojourn to look at the handful of listed companies dotting this landscape
Final destination, an overview of the "Big Three" and other major sustainability frameworks


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Dun & Bradstreet Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dun-bradstreet-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9894:1" rel="noopener">Dun &amp; Bradstreet (DNB US)</a> is getting ready to complete an IPO in the next few weeks. This is a big one as the company has a placeholder to raise up to $1 billion in this IPO. There has been a big turnaround in the IPO market in the past few weeks so the company's timing in this IPO appears to be sound.</div>In February 2019, a consortium of investors including William P. Foley II,  Thomas H. Lee Partners, Cannae Holdings, Inc., CC Capital, and Black Knight, Inc. took Dun &amp; Bradstreet private for $6.9 billion, including debt. It is expected that the IPO will aim to value the company above this buyout price.  The lead underwriters in this IPO include Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Securities, J.P. Morgan, and Barclays.Excellent brand name &amp; deep data capabilities - Dun &amp; Bradstreet is one of the most well-known global providers of data and analytics that help companies to make better decisions (such as providing greater information about commercial credit conditions and confirmation that suppliers are financially viable). Dun &amp; Bradstreet has one of the best brand name recognition in this segment.Big market size &amp; key beneficiary of Big Data - Dun &amp; Bradstreet is likely to be a key beneficiary of the tremendous growth in Big Data &amp; analytics market. The company has access to millions of companies around the world and it can capitalize on Big Data to provide a more accurate and informative data analytics and business intelligence.

Dun &amp; Bradstreet (DNB US) is getting ready to complete an IPO in the next few weeks. This is a big one as the company has a placeholder to raise up to $1 billion in this IPO. There has been a big turnaround in the IPO market in the past few weeks so the company's timing in this IPO appears to be sound.In February 2019, a consortium of investors including William P. Foley II,  Thomas H. Lee Partners, Cannae Holdings, Inc., CC Capital, and Black Knight, Inc. took Dun &amp; Bradstreet private for $6.9 billion, including debt. It is expected that the IPO will aim to value the company above this buyout price.  The lead underwriters in this IPO include Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Securities, J.P. Morgan, and Barclays.Excellent brand name &amp; deep data capabilities - Dun &amp; Bradstreet is one of the most well-known global providers of data and analytics that help companies to make better decisions (such as providing greater information about commercial credit conditions and confirmation that suppliers are financially viable). Dun &amp; Bradstreet has one of the best brand name recognition in this segment.Big market size &amp; key beneficiary of Big Data - Dun &amp; Bradstreet is likely to be a key beneficiary of the tremendous growth in Big Data &amp; analytics market. The company has access to millions of companies around the world and it can capitalize on Big Data to provide a more accurate and informative data analytics and business intelligence.

United States

Moody's Corporation is a credit rating, research, and risk analysis firm.  The Company provides credit ratings and related research, data and analytical tools, quantitative credit risk measures, risk scoring software, and credit portfolio management solutions and securities pricing software and valuation models.

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Moody's Corp (MCO US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Financials, Materials, and Industrials. We discuss implications of the break below the key 1.45% support level on...

Vermilion Research

CTOS Digital IPO - Market Leader, Strong PE Record and Cornerstone

CTOS Digital (CTOS) aims to raise up to US$291m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. CTOS is the largest credit...

Sumeet Singh

Sustainability and ESG Indices: A Booming Ecosystem and New Investing and Trading Opportunities

Index rebalancing and reconstitution often creates a window of abnormal returns (and opportunity). For broad market indices, these effects are well...

Kyle Rudden

Sustainability/ESG Frameworks: Overview

This Insight is a relatively brief, high-level overview of the sustainability framework ecosystem. It will be followed (soon) by deeper dives into...

Kyle Rudden

Dun & Bradstreet IPO Preview

Dun & Bradstreet (DNB US) is getting ready to complete an IPO in the next few weeks. This is a big one as the company has a placeholder to...

Douglas Kim

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