Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive.</li><li>Fabrinet and Coherent both achieved good results, but Fabrinet disappointed expectations for Nvidia's pluggable revenue. Is this a weak read-through? Unlikely. Marvell should have an amazing year if Coherent’s TAM is remotely correct.</li><li>MKSI put up the exact results I was looking for, and this continues to be my favorite idea. As WFE increases, inventory builds will happen, and then financial and operational leverage will take care of the rest.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive.Fabrinet and Coherent both achieved good results, but Fabrinet disappointed expectations for Nvidia's pluggable revenue. Is this a weak read-through? Unlikely. Marvell should have an amazing year if Coherent’s TAM is remotely correct.MKSI put up the exact results I was looking for, and this continues to be my favorite idea. As WFE increases, inventory builds will happen, and then financial and operational leverage will take care of the rest.

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.</li>
<li>In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.</li>
</ul>



Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Monolithic Power Systems delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, achieving third-quarter revenue of $474.9 million, signifying a 7.6% increase from the previous quarter of 2023.</li><li>Within the enterprise data market, MPS reported a noteworthy increase in third-quarter revenue, reaching $98.9 million, a remarkable 106.2% surge from the second quarter of 2023.</li><li>Consumer revenue in the third quarter decreased to $62.4 million primarily due to TV and home appliance sales declines.</li></ul>

Monolithic Power Systems delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, achieving third-quarter revenue of $474.9 million, signifying a 7.6% increase from the previous quarter of 2023.Within the enterprise data market, MPS reported a noteworthy increase in third-quarter revenue, reaching $98.9 million, a remarkable 106.2% surge from the second quarter of 2023.Consumer revenue in the third quarter decreased to $62.4 million primarily due to TV and home appliance sales declines.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: The Future Looks Bright - Inside Their Growth Strategy! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. </li><li>I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.</li><li>We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.</li></ul>

This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.

<ul><li>Monolithic Power Systems managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.</li><li>Storage and computing revenue increased in the quarter.</li><li>Industrial revenue for the second quarter of 2023 also increased due to higher equipment sales for power sources and industrial meter applications.</li></ul>

Monolithic Power Systems managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.Storage and computing revenue increased in the quarter.Industrial revenue for the second quarter of 2023 also increased due to higher equipment sales for power sources and industrial meter applications.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: An Exciting Leap into EV & AI Domains! - Major Drivers

United States

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc (MPWR US)

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive...

Fabricated Knowledge

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: The Future Looks Bright - Inside Their Growth Strategy! - Major Drivers

Monolithic Power Systems delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, achieving third-quarter revenue of $474.9 million, signifying a...

Baptista Research

Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs

Plus my new taxonomy of cycles! Where I think each end market is in the cycle. This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: An Exciting Leap into EV & AI Domains! - Major Drivers

Monolithic Power Systems managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street. Storage and computing...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive...

Fabricated Knowledge

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

​TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: The Future Looks Bright - Inside Their Growth Strategy! - Major Drivers

Monolithic Power Systems delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, achieving third-quarter revenue of $474.9 million, signifying a...

Baptista Research

Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs

Plus my new taxonomy of cycles! Where I think each end market is in the cycle. This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: An Exciting Leap into EV & AI Domains! - Major Drivers

Monolithic Power Systems managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street. Storage and computing...

Baptista Research

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...