Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

In this insight, we take a look at the monthly performance of the trading opportunities surrounding TOPIX Index Rebalance events. During the month, we witnessed the Inclusion Events of cloud-based business accounting software company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a>, water treatment technology company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-micro-science-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11317:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Micro Science (6254 JP)</a>, and printed circuit board manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meiko-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20004:1" rel="noopener">Meiko Electronics (6787 JP)</a>. Furthermore, as discussed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/july-topix-ffw-rebalancing-trade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54275" rel="noopener">July TOPIX FFW Rebalancing Trade</a>, there were quarterly float adjustments for some constituents of the TOPIX Index which opened up a few trading opportunities. Below is a closer look at each of these situations.

In this insight, we take a look at the monthly performance of the trading opportunities surrounding TOPIX Index Rebalance events. During the month, we witnessed the Inclusion Events of cloud-based business accounting software company Money Forward (3994 JP), water treatment technology company Nomura Micro Science (6254 JP), and printed circuit board manufacturer Meiko Electronics (6787 JP). Furthermore, as discussed by Travis Lundy in July TOPIX FFW Rebalancing Trade, there were quarterly float adjustments for some constituents of the TOPIX Index which opened up a few trading opportunities. Below is a closer look at each of these situations. 

Cloud-based business accounting software company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a>  <a href="https://s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/mf-wp/wp-content/uploads/20210607153424/Notice-Regarding-Approval-of-Stock-Market-Listing-Transfer-to-the-First-Section-of-the-Tokyo-Stock-Exchange.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on 7th June 2021 that they had received approval to move from the Mothers Section to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange which triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index. Previously, this situation was covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-money-forward-3994-jp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52690" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion: Money Forward (3994 JP)</a>. On 15th July 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> announced earnings for the quarter ending May 2021. Below is a closer look at how the stock has traded since the TSE1 promotion was announced and the upside potential for the remainder of the event timeline.

Cloud-based business accounting software company Money Forward (3994 JP)  announced on 7th June 2021 that they had received approval to move from the Mothers Section to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange which triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index. Previously, this situation was covered in TOPIX Inclusion: Money Forward (3994 JP). On 15th July 2021, Money Forward (3994 JP) announced earnings for the quarter ending May 2021. Below is a closer look at how the stock has traded since the TSE1 promotion was announced and the upside potential for the remainder of the event timeline. 

TOPIX Inclusion: Money Forward (3994) Could Outperform Freee (4478) Until End of Month

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a>  has not experienced any slowdown in customer acquisition or revenue growth due to the COVID pandemic, unlike many Japanese SaaS providers. It is a testament to the company's strong business model and go-to-market strategy. As a result, consolidated sales in Q2 rose 42% year over year to ¥3.99 billion. Although the stock has done well, rising 40% year to date, it remains cheap when compared with its Japanese peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a> .

Money Forward (3994 JP)  has not experienced any slowdown in customer acquisition or revenue growth due to the COVID pandemic, unlike many Japanese SaaS providers. It is a testament to the company's strong business model and go-to-market strategy. As a result, consolidated sales in Q2 rose 42% year over year to ¥3.99 billion. Although the stock has done well, rising 40% year to date, it remains cheap when compared with its Japanese peer, freee (4478 JP) .

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

TOPIX is constructed differently than other major indices. It has no fixed number of constituents like S&amp;P500, and it has reasonably loose rules on membership, which will soon get tighter as the TOPIX spends a few years matching the TSE Prime market section which launches 1 April 2022, but it probably will still not be tight enough to be a legitimate blue chip index. But it is what we got.There is a slew of TOPIX rebalance trades every year. There are monthly "company data" changes. Then there are quarterly changes for FFW. And there is an annual liquidity factor adjustment rebalance. On the 7th last week, the TSE announced the July FFW changes. They are bigger than many expected. And more numerous (15 dozen changes). I see a bit over US$2.5bn to sell on the down-weights. And some large trades are reasonably impactful. More below the fold.

TOPIX is constructed differently than other major indices. It has no fixed number of constituents like S&amp;P500, and it has reasonably loose rules on membership, which will soon get tighter as the TOPIX spends a few years matching the TSE Prime market section which launches 1 April 2022, but it probably will still not be tight enough to be a legitimate blue chip index. But it is what we got.There is a slew of TOPIX rebalance trades every year. There are monthly "company data" changes. Then there are quarterly changes for FFW. And there is an annual liquidity factor adjustment rebalance. On the 7th last week, the TSE announced the July FFW changes. They are bigger than many expected. And more numerous (15 dozen changes). I see a bit over US$2.5bn to sell on the down-weights. And some large trades are reasonably impactful. More below the fold. 

Quantitative Analysis

In this insight, we take a look at the monthly performance of the trading opportunities surrounding TOPIX Index Rebalance events. During the month of June, we witnessed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meiko-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20004:1" rel="noopener">Meiko Electronics (6787 JP)</a>, a stock tracked by Quiddity as a potential TSE Prime candidate, confirm its TSE Prime move. Furthermore, we also witnessed high growth SaaS company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> announce its move to TSE Prime potentially triggering a large inclusion event at the end of July 2021.  Below is a discussion of the situations covered by Quiddity in the Pre-event, Live-event, and Post-event categories during the month of June 2021.

In this insight, we take a look at the monthly performance of the trading opportunities surrounding TOPIX Index Rebalance events. During the month of June, we witnessed Meiko Electronics (6787 JP), a stock tracked by Quiddity as a potential TSE Prime candidate, confirm its TSE Prime move. Furthermore, we also witnessed high growth SaaS company Money Forward (3994 JP) announce its move to TSE Prime potentially triggering a large inclusion event at the end of July 2021.  Below is a discussion of the situations covered by Quiddity in the Pre-event, Live-event, and Post-event categories during the month of June 2021.   

Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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Money Forward (3994 JP)

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: July 2021

In this insight, we discuss the performance of trading opportunities surrounding TOPIX Index Rebalance events. In July, Money Forward, Nomura...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Inclusion: Money Forward (3994) Could Outperform Freee (4478) Until End of Month

Money Forward shares are yet to outperform local rival freee with just 9 more trading days for the TOPIX Inclusion Event. The timing could be great...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Money Forward (3994) | Evolving Rapidly

Money Forward (3994 JP) has not experienced any slowdown in customer acquisition or revenue growth due to the COVID pandemic, unlike many Japanese...

Mark Chadwick

July TOPIX FFW Rebalancing Trade

The TOPIX July FFW rebalance is large this year, on what is generally an overlooked rebalance trade. There are several multi-hundred million...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: June 2021

TOPIX Pre-Event Watchlist Trades, Announced Trades, and ongoing performance. The announcements have performed well (and did well as pre-events...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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