Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dechra-pharmaceuticals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21908:1" rel="noopener">Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/network-international-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28918:1" rel="noopener">Network International Holdings (NETW LN)</a> are currently involved in takeover situations. When those deals close, intra-review changes can be triggered.</li>
<li>Including these changes, there could be up to one F100 change and seven F250 changes between now and the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) and Network International Holdings (NETW LN) are currently involved in takeover situations. When those deals close, intra-review changes can be triggered.
Including these changes, there could be up to one F100 change and seven F250 changes between now and the end of the year.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: ~7 Changes Possible; LONG Playtech SHORT 888 Interesting

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Stagecoach has agreed to a <strong>105p cash offer</strong> from DWS (37% premium, 14.7x EV/Fwd EBIT). The board has withdrawn the prior recommendation for an all-share merger with National Express.</li>
<li>National Express could respond by increasing its offer in line with DWS's, but that would imply giving away c. 50% of the combined company, which I think unlikely.</li>
<li>The offer is not incredibly generous, but there are risks (soaring fuel prices, inflation, etc.). Gross spread is nil and the offer is likely to close.</li>
</ul>


Stagecoach has agreed to a 105p cash offer from DWS (37% premium, 14.7x EV/Fwd EBIT). The board has withdrawn the prior recommendation for an all-share merger with National Express.
National Express could respond by increasing its offer in line with DWS's, but that would imply giving away c. 50% of the combined company, which I think unlikely.
The offer is not incredibly generous, but there are risks (soaring fuel prices, inflation, etc.). Gross spread is nil and the offer is likely to close.


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<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>Corrigenda</strong>: There is an error in this insight. Please note the correction.</p>
<p><strong>Correction</strong>: in the 3rd bullet in Executive Summary:<br>Instead of “Short 1 SGE LN, long 0.36 NEX LN” should read “Long 1 SGE LN, short 0.36 NEX LN”</p>
</div>
</div>
<ul>
<li>The deal is defensive and centered in the UK, with US, Spain and Morocco as other major markets. It seeks scale and the synergies look achievable.</li>
<li>The consideration represents a 18% premium, 12.7 EV/Fwd EBITDA and 19.5x Fwd P/E.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Stagecoach shareholders will likely approve the integration. <strong>Short 1 SGE LN, long 0.36 NEX LN</strong>. Patience may be needed to set up a large position.</li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</div>



Corrigenda: There is an error in this insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: in the 3rd bullet in Executive Summary: Instead of “Short 1 SGE LN, long 0.36 NEX LN” should read “Long 1 SGE LN, short 0.36 NEX LN”



The deal is defensive and centered in the UK, with US, Spain and Morocco as other major markets. It seeks scale and the synergies look achievable.
The consideration represents a 18% premium, 12.7 EV/Fwd EBITDA and 19.5x Fwd P/E.



Stagecoach shareholders will likely approve the integration. Short 1 SGE LN, long 0.36 NEX LN. Patience may be needed to set up a large position.




National Express/Stagecoach: All-Stock Merger

US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firstgroup-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21936:1" rel="noopener">Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN)</a> is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years.</p>
<p>In this report I look at the history of activist tilts towards FGP LN including the latest attempt by Coast Capital, as well as delve into business performance and share price valuation, and see what it all means for event-driven investors.</p>

Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN) is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years.
In this report I look at the history of activist tilts towards FGP LN including the latest attempt by Coast Capital, as well as delve into business performance and share price valuation, and see what it all means for event-driven investors.

FirstGroup Plc – Barbarians at the Bus Stop

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. </p>

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

United Kingdom

Mobico Group PLC operates as a passenger transportation company. The Company offers shared mobility solutions to cities, businesses, education, healthcare, and customers. Mobico Group conducts its business worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Mobico Group (MCG LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: ~7 Changes Possible; LONG Playtech SHORT 888 Interesting

The top 7 F250 Potential ADDs currently have ~10 days of volume to buy and up to a couple of these names could be added on an intra-review basis...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DWS Gatecrashes NEX Offer for Stagecoach

Stagecoach has agreed to an offer by DWS Infrastructure, and has therefore withdrawn its previous recommendation to the offer by National Express,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

National Express/Stagecoach: All-Stock Merger

At the closing 15 Dec. prices, the spread was 6%. This may be explained by the expected close review by the CMA and the anticipated twelve months...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

FirstGroup Plc – Barbarians at the Bus Stop

Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN) is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years. In this...

John DeMasi

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: ~7 Changes Possible; LONG Playtech SHORT 888 Interesting

The top 7 F250 Potential ADDs currently have ~10 days of volume to buy and up to a couple of these names could be added on an intra-review basis...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DWS Gatecrashes NEX Offer for Stagecoach

Stagecoach has agreed to an offer by DWS Infrastructure, and has therefore withdrawn its previous recommendation to the offer by National Express,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

National Express/Stagecoach: All-Stock Merger

At the closing 15 Dec. prices, the spread was 6%. This may be explained by the expected close review by the CMA and the anticipated twelve months...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

FirstGroup Plc – Barbarians at the Bus Stop

Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN) is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years. In this...

John DeMasi

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: ~7 Changes Possible; LONG Playtech SHORT 888 Interesting