Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed that new motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in the month of October by 3.6%, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2011.  But this follows a 5.9% rise in September, the largest monthly gain since December 2011.Looking through the elevated volatility of the series of recent months, the trend remains robust.  New motor vehicle registrations are 4.2% higher than a year ago and remain close to a record high…

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed that new motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in the month of October by 3.6%, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2011.  But this follows a 5.9% rise in September, the largest monthly gain since December 2011.Looking through the elevated volatility of the series of recent months, the trend remains robust.  New motor vehicle registrations are 4.2% higher than a year ago and remain close to a record high…

Australian New Motor Vehicle Registrations Pull Back in October, but the Trend Remains Robust

<ul><li>This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;</li><li>I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;</li><li>I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.</li></ul>

This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

Global Special Situations

Charles Nave

Event-Driven

The current offer for Asciano and upcoming infrastructure assets in Australia will see more foreign companies look to Australian shores for quality assets and stable growth.In this report I detail one such company - Transurban - and highlight others that may also be in the spotlight.

The current offer for Asciano and upcoming infrastructure assets in Australia will see more foreign companies look to Australian shores for quality assets and stable growth.In this report I detail one such company - Transurban - and highlight others that may also be in the spotlight.

Transurban (TCL AU):  Are Offshore Buyers on the Road Again?

Australia

K & S Corporation Limited provides transportation, warehousing, logistics, fuel distribution and various services to companies throughout Australia.  K & S provides road, rail and sea forwarding services, warehousing and storage, fuel distribution to fishing, farming and retail customers in certain regions of Australia.  K & S also provides bulk distribution throughout New Zealand.

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. is a mining services company. The Company specializes in providing transportation by air of its mining and energy customers' employees and contractors to and from remote locations, ad hoc charter services - operating commercial air charters servicing the needs of Government and corporate customers, and wet leasing services.

Future Generation Investment Company Limited is an investment company incorporated in Australia.  The objective of the Fund is to provide exposure to a group of prominent Australian fund managers in a single investment vehicle. The Fund will invest in funds managed by a number of Australian fund managers with diversified exposure to Australian equities.

Lindsay Australia Limited is an integrated transport, logistics and rural supply company.  The Company primarily services customers in the food processing, food services, fresh produce, rural and horticultural industries.

CTI Logistics Limited provides courier services, freight forwarding, parcel, warehousing, logistic and customs broking services.  The Company also designs, produces and installs security systems in Western Australia along with plastic services such as manufacturing plumbing fittings.

Monadelphous Group Limited provides engineering and construction services to the resources and petrochemical industries. The Company provides mining and processing industry maintenance, mining equipment refurbishment, project management, construction, and airport ground handling services. Monadelphous Group serves customers in Australia.

McMillan Shakespeare Limited provides salary packaging services.  The Company also offers services like procurement of motor vehicles, insurance, finance and fuel and service maintenance programs.

SG Fleet Group Ltd provides vehicle leasing and fleet management services. The Company offers its services to corporate and government customers and individual employees of those customers.

Austal Limited is an emerging global defence prime contractor. The Group supplies vessel platforms such as the Littoral Combat Ship and the Joint High Speed Vessel to the United States Navy, an extensive range of patrol and auxiliary vessels to defence forces around the world, and installs and maintains military communications, radar and command and control systems.

SmartGroup Corp Ltd. is an Australian outsourced salary packaging company within the health, not-for-profit, State and Federal Government departments and corporate sectors nationwide.

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. owns a fleet of dry bulk vessels and transports a range of major and minor bulk cargoes.  The Company transports iron ore, coal, grain, cement, and fertilizer along worldwide shipping routes.

NS United Kaiun Kaisha, Ltd. operates specialized carriers and tramps to ship iron ore, steel, coal, crude oil, and gas. The Company is affiliated with Nippon Yusen. The Company also has close ties with Nippon Steel.

2GO Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides shipping and logistics services in the Philippines and internationally. It engages in the domestic and international delivery of documents and parcels, money remittances, cash, certificate and visas, pouches and boxes, full container and loose cargo, and supply chain services; and warehousing and distribution, asset maintenance, and relocation services. The company also provides project management and consultancy services, such as transportation of heavy and bulk-sized equipment; and logistics services, such as ambient and temperature controlled distribution centers, forward stock locations, ambient and temperature controlled cross-docking, domestic freight forwarding and land transport, bundling and kitting, control tower solutions, and logistics solutions design and consultancy services. In addition, it provides passenger travel services; and operates ferry vessels. Further, the company offers international and domestic air and sea freight forwarding services, cargo consolidation, dangerous goods handling, customs brokerage, and building and exhibition logistics; and FMCG trading and distribution, food servicing, and catering services, as well as liquid transport services. Additionally, it provides manpower, security, trucking, forwarding services, water barging, tugboat assistance, and arrastre and stevedoring services. The company operates a fleet of 23 passenger and freight vessels. It also operates 15,000 containers, 35 cross-dock warehouses, 550 trucks, 1,200 trailers, 250 motorcycles, 70,000 square meters of distribution center operations, and approximately 185 branches and outlets. The company formerly known as ATS Consolidated (ATSC), Inc. and changed its name to 2GO Group, Inc. in March 2012. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Manila, the Philippines.

Regional Container Lines Public Company Limited provides ocean freight transportation services. The Company owns and operates a fleet of container vessels covering more than 70 destinations in Asia, Australia, and the Middle East.

PT Pelayaran Tempuran Emas Tbk provides sea transportation services. The company has network of branches and agents throughout Indonesia and Singapore. Pelayaran Tempuran Emas also offers logistic supports for cargo movements.

Bohai Ferry Company Limited is a passenger liner transportation enterprise. The Company mainly operates passenger vessel transport for the Yantai-Dalian and Penglai-Dalian sea routes.

Safe Bulkers Inc. is an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services transporting bulk cargoes particularly grain, iron ore, and coal. The Company has a fleet of panamax, kamsarmax, and post-panamax class vessels.

IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. owns and operates specialized tankers such as oil, chemical, and LPG carriers.  The Company transports crude oil, petroleum gasoline, and various dry consumer and agricultural goods.  Iino Kaiun Kaisha also leases and sells real estate.

Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. provides shipping services. The Company focuses on drybulk carrier ships used to transport iron ore, coal, grain, steel, and other products. Genco Shipping & Trading serves customers worldwide.

Ningbo Marine Co., Ltd. provides freight transportation on the inland waters, as well as between the ports of Ningbo and Southeast Asian countries and Japan. The Company also invests in the transportation facility construction business and processes steel product.

MMA Offshore Limited provides diversified marine services. The Company operates mainly in the Dampier and North West Shelf in Western Australia and also in the Northern Territory. MMA Offshore operates crew vessel charters, vessel manning, management and logistics along with operating supply base facilities.

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Mma Offshore (MRM AU)

Australian New Motor Vehicle Registrations Pull Back in October, but the Trend Remains Robust

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed that new motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in the month of October by...

Sam Ferraro

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

This post provides an update of Evidente’s currency model. Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also...

Sam Ferraro

Transurban (TCL AU): Are Offshore Buyers on the Road Again?

The current offer for Asciano and upcoming infrastructure assets in Australia will see more foreign companies look to Australian shores for quality...

Charles Nave

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