Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.<div>S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…</div>

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

* The BoJ shocked the market, cutting rates to negative and threatening further rate cuts if needed* The apparent change in BoJ stance has to be viewed in the wake of the ECB and Fed statements* The BoJ rate cut is a de facto protest of tighter Japanese monetary conditions due to JPY strength* Leveraged funds on the CFTC had the largest long JPY position ahead of this since October 2012* Recent JPY gains are likely to retrace over the next few weeks, notably against AUD, INR and KRW

* The BoJ shocked the market, cutting rates to negative and threatening further rate cuts if needed* The apparent change in BoJ stance has to be viewed in the wake of the ECB and Fed statements* The BoJ rate cut is a de facto protest of tighter Japanese monetary conditions due to JPY strength* Leveraged funds on the CFTC had the largest long JPY position ahead of this since October 2012* Recent JPY gains are likely to retrace over the next few weeks, notably against AUD, INR and KRW

Asia Calling: From Currency Wars to Competitive Monetary Easing

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

In the beginning, Arthur Fonzarelli was cool.<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/155/original/fonz.jpg?1453465588" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5155"></figure> Then, after four seasons of hit sitcom Happy Days, the writers apparently felt things were a bit dull so they created a plot device to liven things up. It was time for Arthur Fonzarelli (the Fonze) to jump a shark.  Literally. So they made up a story whereby he answered a challenge to his personal courage by having him waterski - resplendent in his leather motorcycle jacket - over a ramp in front of a pen holding a Great White Shark."Jumping the…

In the beginning, Arthur Fonzarelli was cool. Then, after four seasons of hit sitcom Happy Days, the writers apparently felt things were a bit dull so they created a plot device to liven things up. It was time for Arthur Fonzarelli (the Fonze) to jump a shark.  Literally. So they made up a story whereby he answered a challenge to his personal courage by having him waterski - resplendent in his leather motorcycle jacket - over a ramp in front of a pen holding a Great White Shark."Jumping the…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Net interest margins are core to bank income, and in Japan the levels are frighteningly low. </li><li>When we focus on credit cycles and regulatory change predominantly, we can sometimes miss what is essential for banks: core net interest income.</li><li>What is more interesting is where the figures appear to be dwindling almost to nothing, as is the case in Japan.</li><li>This is especially important when masked by unusually low credit costs.</li></ul>

Net interest margins are core to bank income, and in Japan the levels are frighteningly low. When we focus on credit cycles and regulatory change predominantly, we can sometimes miss what is essential for banks: core net interest income.What is more interesting is where the figures appear to be dwindling almost to nothing, as is the case in Japan.This is especially important when masked by unusually low credit costs.

Beware of Thinning Margins for Japan Banks, Especially as Credit Costs Normalize

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Increasing Shorts on Strength

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Calling: From Currency Wars to Competitive Monetary Easing

* The BoJ shocked the market, cutting rates to negative and threatening further rate cuts if needed* The apparent change in BoJ stance has to be...

Callum Henderson

Jumping the Shark? Jumping the Sharp?

In the beginning, Arthur Fonzarelli was cool. Then, after four seasons of hit sitcom Happy Days, the writers apparently felt things were a bit dull...

Travis Lundy

Beware of Thinning Margins for Japan Banks, Especially as Credit Costs Normalize

Net interest margins are core to bank income, and in Japan the levels are frighteningly low. When we focus on credit cycles and regulatory change...

Daniel Tabbush

A Gradual NPL Cycle in Asia

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%,...

Daniel Tabbush

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