Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/money-matters-turkey-on-the-brink" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7953">Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?</a>). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a good comment from Ray Dalio on Trump and his invocation of Ayn Rand. I was also in the middle of reading the history of Athens and re-reading Aristotle’s Constitution of Athens, which added perspective to Dalio. There is a lot to apply to today which I think is worth noting.Quick conclusions before delving deeper:<ul><li>Ray Dalio is right to invoke Ayn Rand and flag the positives Trump could bring about;</li><li>But Let’s also keep in mind how deep the recent hole banks, Bernanke and Obama dug;</li><li>Looking at Aristotle as well, we might say that Trump’s partial democratic election has been to install an Aristocracy…this will certainly be interesting;</li><li>There are some really good free reads to turn to for a quick study of Ayn Rand;</li><li>When we listen back to Ayn Rand, we see that she disliked MNCs/Corporations because of their manipulation of government…Let’s see where Trump takes this.</li></ul>

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a good comment from Ray Dalio on Trump and his invocation of Ayn Rand. I was also in the middle of reading the history of Athens and re-reading Aristotle’s Constitution of Athens, which added perspective to Dalio. There is a lot to apply to today which I think is worth noting.Quick conclusions before delving deeper:Ray Dalio is right to invoke Ayn Rand and flag the positives Trump could bring about;But Let’s also keep in mind how deep the recent hole banks, Bernanke and Obama dug;Looking at Aristotle as well, we might say that Trump’s partial democratic election has been to install an Aristocracy…this will certainly be interesting;There are some really good free reads to turn to for a quick study of Ayn Rand;When we listen back to Ayn Rand, we see that she disliked MNCs/Corporations because of their manipulation of government…Let’s see where Trump takes this.

Trump Not Likely to Halt Decline of US. But Ray Dalio Makes Good Case in Bringing Back Ayn Rand

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report, Quiddity Advisors

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul><li>"Overweights" - Japan and Taiwan</li><li>"Underweights" - India, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines</li><li>Recent Upgrades - Japan, Taiwan, and Australia. </li><li>Recent Downgrades - Hong Kong, China, Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines</li><li>Key Sector Overweights - APAC financials, China consumer discretionary, Korea/Taiwan IT (semiconductors), Australia and Japan materials, Malaysia and Indonesia plantations</li><li>Key Sector Underweights - APAC consumer staples, APAC utilities, Hong Kong property</li><li>Top Bullish Themes - Macau tourism, APAC "value"factor tilt, Indian crop yield enhancement</li><li>Top Bearish Themes - Japan "minimum volatility" factor tilt and high dividend stable "bond-proxy" equities</li><li>"Top Pick" equities identified in key sectors and themes</li></ul>This is the final in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

"Overweights" - Japan and Taiwan"Underweights" - India, Singapore, Indonesia, and the PhilippinesRecent Upgrades - Japan, Taiwan, and Australia. Recent Downgrades - Hong Kong, China, Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the PhilippinesKey Sector Overweights - APAC financials, China consumer discretionary, Korea/Taiwan IT (semiconductors), Australia and Japan materials, Malaysia and Indonesia plantationsKey Sector Underweights - APAC consumer staples, APAC utilities, Hong Kong propertyTop Bullish Themes - Macau tourism, APAC "value"factor tilt, Indian crop yield enhancementTop Bearish Themes - Japan "minimum volatility" factor tilt and high dividend stable "bond-proxy" equities"Top Pick" equities identified in key sectors and themesThis is the final in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Investment Outlook - Emerging Markets Trumped but Japan Escapes Value Trap

Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary<ul><li>J-curve effects apparent in Europe, Australia, and Japan</li><li>Emerging market earnings revision underperformance led by China</li><li>Financial sector earnings recovery, especially in Japan</li><li>Consumer discretionary earnings under pressure</li><li>Earnings momentum in telecoms fading since last earnings update</li></ul>This is the third in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

Country and Sector Earnings Revision SummaryJ-curve effects apparent in Europe, Australia, and JapanEmerging market earnings revision underperformance led by ChinaFinancial sector earnings recovery, especially in JapanConsumer discretionary earnings under pressureEarnings momentum in telecoms fading since last earnings updateThis is the third in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary (Dec 2016)

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey...

Stewart Paterson

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets. It is evident that a significant...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Not Likely to Halt Decline of US. But Ray Dalio Makes Good Case in Bringing Back Ayn Rand

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a...

Charles De Trenck

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Investment Outlook - Emerging Markets Trumped but Japan Escapes Value Trap

"Overweights" - Japan and Taiwan "Underweights" - India, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines Recent Upgrades - Japan, Taiwan, and...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary (Dec 2016)

Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary J-curve effects apparent in Europe, Australia, and Japan Emerging market earnings revision...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

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