Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>There are stark differences in how loan loss provisioning levels have changed since late 2019 to early 2021. This can have implications for relative credit costs during FY21. STAN does not fare well, Mizuho looks best. </p>

There are stark differences in how loan loss provisioning levels have changed since late 2019 to early 2021. This can have implications for relative credit costs during FY21. STAN does not fare well, Mizuho looks best. 

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<p>Google is reportedly close to acquiring smartphone settlements company Pring for ¥20-30bn which would open the door for it to offer a mobile payments service in Japan directly linked to bank accounts. And that is the appeal of Pring which is a relative minnow in the Japanese payments market with &lt;1mn users but has relationships with a wide range of Japanese financial institutions. Google is not a global fintech player but it has had some success in a few markets like the US and India whilst it has started to expand in Europe, and now apparently, Japan. Competitively, the major domestic players with vast consumer ecosystems are formidable competition but Google connects to half of all smartphone users through Android and has merchant relationships through its Internet advertising business.</p>

Google is reportedly close to acquiring smartphone settlements company Pring for ¥20-30bn which would open the door for it to offer a mobile payments service in Japan directly linked to bank accounts. And that is the appeal of Pring which is a relative minnow in the Japanese payments market with &lt;1mn users but has relationships with a wide range of Japanese financial institutions. Google is not a global fintech player but it has had some success in a few markets like the US and India whilst it has started to expand in Europe, and now apparently, Japan. Competitively, the major domestic players with vast consumer ecosystems are formidable competition but Google connects to half of all smartphone users through Android and has merchant relationships through its Internet advertising business.

Japan Fintech - Google Push into Mobile Payments Could Raise Competitive Intensity

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

<p>Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.</p><p>January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.</p><p><strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a></em></strong> is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.</p><p>“<em>Caveat Emptor!”</em> (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/895/original/8300-WR-JBanks-2021-0628-ZeroSheFlies-TPNBNKvsTPXin2021.jpg?1624939811" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215895"></figure></section>

Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Information Technology, Real Estate and Communication Services sectors, while decreasing in the Financials sector.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tamura-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9782:1" rel="noopener">Tamura Corp (6768 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:379:1" rel="noopener">SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resona-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6841:1" rel="noopener">Resona Holdings (8308 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>. Shorts decreased the most in the Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology and Health Care sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-heavy-industries-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7389:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oci-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1904:1" rel="noopener">Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mando-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8119:1" rel="noopener">Mando Corp (204320 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-wia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12283:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Wia (011210 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nantex-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1865:1" rel="noopener">Nantex Industry (2108 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigabyte-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17486:1" rel="noopener">Gigabyte Technology (2376 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) while there was short covering on Meituan (3690 HK), HKEX (388 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK). Shorts increased in the Information Technology, Real Estate and Communication Services sectors, while decreasing in the Financials sector.In Japan, stocks increased on Yamaha Motor (7272 JP), Tamura Corp (6768 JP), ASICS Corp (7936 JP), SUMCO Corp (3436 JP) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) while there was short covering on Oriental Land (4661 JP), Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP), Resona Holdings (8308 JP) and Anritsu Corp (6754 JP). Shorts decreased the most in the Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology and Health Care sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on Kakao Corp (035720 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS), Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS) while shorts were covered on LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Mando Corp (204320 KS), Hyundai Wia (011210 KS) and Doosan Infracore (042670 KS). In Taiwan, shorts increased on Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT), Asustek Computer (2357 TT), Winbond Electronics (2344 TT), Nantex Industry (2108 TT) and Gigabyte Technology (2376 TT) while shorts covered on TSMC (2330 TT), Taiwan Cement (1101 TT), Largan Precision (3008 TT), United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) and Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT). 

Asia Shorts: Xiaomi, Anta, HKEX, BYD, Yamaha, ASICS, Rakuten, Resona, Kakao, HMC, Doosan, Wan Hai

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>More and more, companies are using cryptocurrency (especially Bitcoin) as part of their corporate treasury management strategies, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bitcoin-on-balance-sheets-indirect-crypto-exposure-considerations-for-crypto-leery-esg-investors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52207" rel="noopener">Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors</a>. That trend is behind the topic of this report.</p><p>Greater mainstream corporate and institutional use of Bitcoin is driving the growth in demand for cryptocurrency custody services, and banks around the world are rushing to fill that demand. It is a logical and relatively safe foray into the cryptocurrency space, albeit not without <em>some</em> risk.</p><p>For ESG investors wishing to avoid direct or indirect cryptocurrency exposure, perhaps due to their views on crypto's wretched Environmental footprint, the banks herein will have significant indirect crypto exposure. However, I personally find it hard to be categorically bearish on this theme.</p><p>Whilst the theme in the first Insight (holding Bitcoin on balance sheets) represents real risk, this is different. It could be argued that crypto custody perpetuates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBT)</a>'s climate impacts, thus is a bad thing. Perhaps, from a purely idealistic ESG viewpoint, that is partially true.</p><p>However, the connection from custody service to carbon emissions is so far removed, and the risks associated with entering the crypto custody space are so comparatively minimal, that the opinion on this theme should be "neutral" at worst, and definitely not across-the-board "negative."</p><p>But really, that is for each investor to decide, because the crypto/ESG issue is highly subjective.</p>

More and more, companies are using cryptocurrency (especially Bitcoin) as part of their corporate treasury management strategies, discussed in Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors. That trend is behind the topic of this report.Greater mainstream corporate and institutional use of Bitcoin is driving the growth in demand for cryptocurrency custody services, and banks around the world are rushing to fill that demand. It is a logical and relatively safe foray into the cryptocurrency space, albeit not without some risk.For ESG investors wishing to avoid direct or indirect cryptocurrency exposure, perhaps due to their views on crypto's wretched Environmental footprint, the banks herein will have significant indirect crypto exposure. However, I personally find it hard to be categorically bearish on this theme.Whilst the theme in the first Insight (holding Bitcoin on balance sheets) represents real risk, this is different. It could be argued that crypto custody perpetuates Bitcoin (XBT)'s climate impacts, thus is a bad thing. Perhaps, from a purely idealistic ESG viewpoint, that is partially true.However, the connection from custody service to carbon emissions is so far removed, and the risks associated with entering the crypto custody space are so comparatively minimal, that the opinion on this theme should be "neutral" at worst, and definitely not across-the-board "negative."But really, that is for each investor to decide, because the crypto/ESG issue is highly subjective.

Banks on the Bitcoin Bandwagon: Cashing in Through Crypto Custody Services

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Banks – Provisioning

There are stark differences in how provisioning levels changed since 4Q29 to early 2021. This can have implications for relative credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Fintech - Google Push into Mobile Payments Could Raise Competitive Intensity

Google is considering an acquisition that would allow it to compete directly in JP mobile payments. It lacks a direct consumer business but Android...

Kirk Boodry

Japanese Bank Lending: Zero She Flies

The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance. Zero growth beckons. Caveat Emptor...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Asia Shorts: Xiaomi, Anta, HKEX, BYD, Yamaha, ASICS, Rakuten, Resona, Kakao, HMC, Doosan, Wan Hai

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Banks on the Bitcoin Bandwagon: Cashing in Through Crypto Custody Services

Bitcoin holdings by issuers and investors is driving crypto custody demand. Big banks are stepping. A big opportunity, but some ESG investors might...

Kyle Rudden

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