Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2020-21 was the second year in a row to see a net fall in the number of SCs in Japan. Sales levels also fell to an unprecedented degree.</li>
<li>The good news is that 2021 has been better, with even city centre malls reducing sales falls by 20 points. But the crisis has exacerbated underlying pressures. </li>
<li>A significant clear out of the SC sector is now occurring as more uneconomic properties close.</li>
</ul>


2020-21 was the second year in a row to see a net fall in the number of SCs in Japan. Sales levels also fell to an unprecedented degree.
The good news is that 2021 has been better, with even city centre malls reducing sales falls by 20 points. But the crisis has exacerbated underlying pressures. 
A significant clear out of the SC sector is now occurring as more uneconomic properties close.


Japan Shopping Centres 2020-21 Review: A Shocking Year

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is backed by KKR (48.7% stake pre-listing), Mitsui (21.5%), Life Science Institute (13.4%) and Panasonic (11.5%).</p></div><div><p>PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management (35% of FY21 revenue); Healthcare Services (37.9% of FY21 revenue); and Diagnosis/Life Science (26.1% of FY21 revenue).</p></div><div><p>We have covered the main aspects of the deal in our earlier notes<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/phc-holdings-pre-ipo-many-companies-rolled-into-one" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Many companies rolled into one and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/phc-holdings-pre-ipo-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison.</a></p></div><div><p>In this note we will talk about valuation.</p></div>

PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is backed by KKR (48.7% stake pre-listing), Mitsui (21.5%), Life Science Institute (13.4%) and Panasonic (11.5%).PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management (35% of FY21 revenue); Healthcare Services (37.9% of FY21 revenue); and Diagnosis/Life Science (26.1% of FY21 revenue).We have covered the main aspects of the deal in our earlier notes PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Many companies rolled into one and  PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison.In this note we will talk about valuation.

PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

<div><p>PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is backed by KKR (48.7% stake pre-listing), Mitsui (21.5%), Life Science Institute (13.4%) and Panasonic (11.5%).</p></div><div><p>PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management (35% of FY21 revenue); Healthcare Services (37.9% of FY21 revenue); and Diagnosis/Life Science (26.1% of FY21 revenue).</p></div><div>
<p>We have covered the main aspects of the deal in our earlier note<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/phc-holdings-pre-ipo-many-companies-rolled-into-one" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Many companies rolled into one</a>.</p>
<p>In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.</p>
</div>

PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is backed by KKR (48.7% stake pre-listing), Mitsui (21.5%), Life Science Institute (13.4%) and Panasonic (11.5%).PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management (35% of FY21 revenue); Healthcare Services (37.9% of FY21 revenue); and Diagnosis/Life Science (26.1% of FY21 revenue).
We have covered the main aspects of the deal in our earlier note PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Many companies rolled into one.
In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.</p>

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Late Tuesday 16 March 2021, the Nikkei carried an article which said that today <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imperial-hotel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18742:1" rel="noopener">Imperial Hotel (9708 JP)</a> had decided to renovate its flagship hotel Imperial Hotel Tokyo in Uchisaiwaicho, Tokyo, on the eastern side of Hibiya Park and just off what used to the southern extension of the imperial palace moat.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/803/original/953px-Imperial_Hotel_Tokyo.jpeg?1615895144" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194803"></figure><div style="text-align: right;" class="content-caption">source: Kakidai, 29 Jan 2012 (own work)</div></section><p>This is the third iteration of the Imperial Hotel after the the last one, designed by Frank Lloyd Wright and built in 1922, replacing Yuzuru Watanabe's beautiful structure built in 1890, was taken down in 1967. The current version opened in 1970 and has stood for more than 50 years.</p><p>The article said that the company had decided to rebuild the hotel in line with ongoing redevelopment in the area, since the existing facilities were aging. The goal is to make the Imperial Hotel a central part of yet another "branded" prime location in Tokyo. An announcement is expected this month. The company <a href="https://www.imperialhotel.co.jp/j/company/pdf/20210316.pdf#zoom=100" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> late in the evening that the news shown in the media was not released by them, and while they are considering rebuilding the hotel, nothing has been decided yet. </p><p>The article says that the 31-story mixed use tower next to the current hotel will be rebuilt by 2030 and the main hotel asset will be rebuilt by 2036. </p><p>In the first nine months of this fiscal year, revenue has dropped by 62% - a dramatic drop to be sure - but not surprising given the lack of inbound tourists. The hotel has started renting out serviced apartments for those who think it would be cool to WFH in in a prime central location. </p><p>For those who are keen observers of that area of Tokyo, this is a long-awaited development. </p><p>And it behooves one to think of the possibilities. One significant possibility in my mind is that Imperial Hotel does not remain independent. </p>

Late Tuesday 16 March 2021, the Nikkei carried an article which said that today Imperial Hotel (9708 JP) had decided to renovate its flagship hotel Imperial Hotel Tokyo in Uchisaiwaicho, Tokyo, on the eastern side of Hibiya Park and just off what used to the southern extension of the imperial palace moat.source: Kakidai, 29 Jan 2012 (own work)This is the third iteration of the Imperial Hotel after the the last one, designed by Frank Lloyd Wright and built in 1922, replacing Yuzuru Watanabe's beautiful structure built in 1890, was taken down in 1967. The current version opened in 1970 and has stood for more than 50 years.The article said that the company had decided to rebuild the hotel in line with ongoing redevelopment in the area, since the existing facilities were aging. The goal is to make the Imperial Hotel a central part of yet another "branded" prime location in Tokyo. An announcement is expected this month. The company announced late in the evening that the news shown in the media was not released by them, and while they are considering rebuilding the hotel, nothing has been decided yet. The article says that the 31-story mixed use tower next to the current hotel will be rebuilt by 2030 and the main hotel asset will be rebuilt by 2036. In the first nine months of this fiscal year, revenue has dropped by 62% - a dramatic drop to be sure - but not surprising given the lack of inbound tourists. The hotel has started renting out serviced apartments for those who think it would be cool to WFH in in a prime central location. For those who are keen observers of that area of Tokyo, this is a long-awaited development. And it behooves one to think of the possibilities. One significant possibility in my mind is that Imperial Hotel does not remain independent. 

Imperial Hotel (9708) - Redevelopment Might Hide an LBO Story

Japan

DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO., LTD. designs and builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings.  The Company constructs single-family houses, collective housings, condominiums, stores, office buildings, factories, and hospitals. DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY also operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manages hotels and golf country clubs.

Mitsubishi Estate Company Ltd. invests in real estate properties in Japan.  The Company leases, manages, and develops commercial buildings in central Tokyo. Mitsubishi Estate also develops and sells residential properties and parking lots and manages recreational facilities including golf courses and tennis clubs.

Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and sells houses and condominiums.  The Company also develops and manages real estates in overseas. Sumitomo Realty & Development undertakes infrastructure projects, manages real estate properties, and provides financing services to its customers.  The Company operates fitness clubs and restaurants as well.

Hulic Company, Limited. operates real estate business and marketable securities investment business.  The Company also conducts environment related businesses.

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings, Corp. is a holding company established through the merger of Tokyu Land Corporation, Tokyu Community Corp, and Tokyu Livable Inc. The Company manages operations for its subsidiaries.

DAITO TRUST CONSTRUCTION CO., LTD. operates building construction and real estate businesses.  The Company plans and constructs apartment and commercial buildings mainly for land owners.  Daito Trust Construction provides brokerage and maintenance services as well.

Tokyo Tatemono Co., Ltd. develops, sells, and leases commercial buildings, condominiums, and houses.   The Company also develops and manages hotels, vacation houses, leisure facilities, and resort places.

Open House Co.,Ltd. provides real estate services. The Company offers services including renting, buying, selling and appraising real estate.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. sells and leases condominiums, residential houses, and office buildings.  The Company also manages REITs, real estate development, and consulting services.

AEON Mall Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and maintains large-scale shopping malls throughout Japan. The Company develops shopping malls, rent the space, manages and maintains the shopping malls.

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in real estate properties. The Company also owns and manages hotels and operates logistics business. In addition, the Wharf operates telecommunication business, cable television, and Internet-related businesses.

SM Prime Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, is engaged in residential property, shopping malls, offices, hotels and convention centers development.

Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited develops and invests in properties. The Company operates and manages hotels, properties, car parking, and transportation infrastructures. Sun Hung Kai Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties. The Company also provides project management, construction, and finance services. In addition, Henderson Land Development operates department stores, hotels, and infrastructure business.

China Resources Land Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.  The Company also provides corporate financing and electrical engineering services.

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Godrej Properties, Ltd. is a real estate development company.

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. mainly develops and sells residential homes. The company is also in the business of leasing and rental of real estates, and property management.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. provides overall real estate services such as leasing, subdivision, construction, sales, and maintenance of office buildings and residential houses.  The Company also manufactures building materials, operates commercial facilities including hotels and golf places, and provides financial services such as securitization of real estate properties.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)

Japan Shopping Centres 2020-21 Review: A Shocking Year

A good window into Japanese retail performance is the performance of shopping malls. This is an in-depth review, including rankings of the best...

Michael Causton

PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is...

Sumeet Singh

PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is...

Sumeet Singh

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections and 10-year yields in the US and Germany are...

Vermilion Research

Imperial Hotel (9708) - Redevelopment Might Hide an LBO Story

Imperial Hotel (9708) has been an event-in-waiting for a decade, and at the very least, five+ years. It may be for another five, but there is a...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)