Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In late February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.</li>
<li>I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.</li>
<li>Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn't. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.</li>
</ul>


In late February, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.
I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.
Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn't. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.


Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback - Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> has long been the target of activist-ish-y holders who seek to have the company monetise its 20+% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Last autumn (17-Oct-2023), Keisei was the subject of a <a href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20231017540912/en/1917461/1/20231017_-_Palliser_Capital_-_13D_Presentation_on_Keisei.pdf?download=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a> by activist-ish-y fund Palliser Capital who called the stock 43% undervalued. They want Keisei to sell some OLC shares.</li>
<li>Palliser wanted Keisei to use resulting monies for growth capex+shareholder return, improve IR/governance, shrink board, adopt KPIs, etc. Thursday we got an announcement of a 2.9% stock buyback. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) has long been the target of activist-ish-y holders who seek to have the company monetise its 20+% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP). 
Last autumn (17-Oct-2023), Keisei was the subject of a presentation by activist-ish-y fund Palliser Capital who called the stock 43% undervalued. They want Keisei to sell some OLC shares.
Palliser wanted Keisei to use resulting monies for growth capex+shareholder return, improve IR/governance, shrink board, adopt KPIs, etc. Thursday we got an announcement of a 2.9% stock buyback. 


Keisei Electric Rail (9009) - A BUYBACK! But It's Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment / Equity Capital Markets

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-infrastructure" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3822:1" rel="noopener">Industrial &amp; Infrastructure Fund Investment (3249 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$341m in its primary follow-on offering to acquire 28 properties and an equity interest in a silent partnership. </li>
<li>The deal is a somewhat large one to digest, at 83 days of three month ADV and 16.2% dilution.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Industrial &amp; Infrastructure Fund Investment (3249 JP) is looking to raise around US$341m in its primary follow-on offering to acquire 28 properties and an equity interest in a silent partnership. 
The deal is a somewhat large one to digest, at 83 days of three month ADV and 16.2% dilution.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Industrial & Infrastructure Investment Corp Placement - Back to the Markets for the 12th Time

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about earnings forecast and provide our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
In this note, we talk about earnings forecast and provide our thoughts on valuation.


Trial Holdings Pre-IPO -Thoughts on Valuation

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Apparently Elliott is requesting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> conduct a very large buyback and to sell down its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors.</li>
<li>The<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a> deal is not terribly surprising. It's not terribly surprising that it is being done cheaply. It IS being done too cheaply. This is bumpable by force. </li>
</ul>


Apparently Elliott is requesting Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) conduct a very large buyback and to sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of Giordano International (709 HK), the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors.
TheLawson (2651 JP) deal is not terribly surprising. It's not terribly surprising that it is being done cheaply. It IS being done too cheaply. This is bumpable by force. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L'Occitane

Japan

DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO., LTD. designs and builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings.  The Company constructs single-family houses, collective housings, condominiums, stores, office buildings, factories, and hospitals. DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY also operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manages hotels and golf country clubs.

Mitsubishi Estate Company Ltd. invests in real estate properties in Japan.  The Company leases, manages, and develops commercial buildings in central Tokyo. Mitsubishi Estate also develops and sells residential properties and parking lots and manages recreational facilities including golf courses and tennis clubs.

Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and sells houses and condominiums.  The Company also develops and manages real estates in overseas. Sumitomo Realty & Development undertakes infrastructure projects, manages real estate properties, and provides financing services to its customers.  The Company operates fitness clubs and restaurants as well.

Hulic Company, Limited. operates real estate business and marketable securities investment business.  The Company also conducts environment related businesses.

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings, Corp. is a holding company established through the merger of Tokyu Land Corporation, Tokyu Community Corp, and Tokyu Livable Inc. The Company manages operations for its subsidiaries.

DAITO TRUST CONSTRUCTION CO., LTD. operates building construction and real estate businesses.  The Company plans and constructs apartment and commercial buildings mainly for land owners.  Daito Trust Construction provides brokerage and maintenance services as well.

Tokyo Tatemono Co., Ltd. develops, sells, and leases commercial buildings, condominiums, and houses.   The Company also develops and manages hotels, vacation houses, leisure facilities, and resort places.

Open House Co.,Ltd. provides real estate services. The Company offers services including renting, buying, selling and appraising real estate.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. sells and leases condominiums, residential houses, and office buildings.  The Company also manages REITs, real estate development, and consulting services.

AEON Mall Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and maintains large-scale shopping malls throughout Japan. The Company develops shopping malls, rent the space, manages and maintains the shopping malls.

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in real estate properties. The Company also owns and manages hotels and operates logistics business. In addition, the Wharf operates telecommunication business, cable television, and Internet-related businesses.

SM Prime Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, is engaged in residential property, shopping malls, offices, hotels and convention centers development.

Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited develops and invests in properties. The Company operates and manages hotels, properties, car parking, and transportation infrastructures. Sun Hung Kai Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties. The Company also provides project management, construction, and finance services. In addition, Henderson Land Development operates department stores, hotels, and infrastructure business.

China Resources Land Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.  The Company also provides corporate financing and electrical engineering services.

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Godrej Properties, Ltd. is a real estate development company.

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. mainly develops and sells residential homes. The company is also in the business of leasing and rental of real estates, and property management.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. provides overall real estate services such as leasing, subdivision, construction, sales, and maintenance of office buildings and residential houses.  The Company also manufactures building materials, operates commercial facilities including hotels and golf places, and provides financial services such as securitization of real estate properties.

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Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)

Keisei Electric Rail (9009) - A BUYBACK! But It's Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

Keisei announced a buyback Thursday. I expect it is to buy from cross-holders, who own about a third of the company. I doubt this is a response to...

Travis Lundy

Industrial & Infrastructure Investment Corp Placement - Back to the Markets for the 12th Time

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment (3249 JP) is looking to raise around US$341m in its primary follow-on offering to acquire 28 properties...

Ethan Aw

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO -Thoughts on Valuation

After having cancelled its listing plans last year, the company is now looking to launch a smaller IPO of around US$250m, as per media reports.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback - Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

Keisei is doing a ToSTNeT-3. Crossholders might sell, but the purpose is an ASR. Those long Keisei/Short OLC can also sell a large block of Keisei....

Travis Lundy

Keisei Electric Rail (9009) - A BUYBACK! But It's Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

Keisei announced a buyback Thursday. I expect it is to buy from cross-holders, who own about a third of the company. I doubt this is a response to...

Travis Lundy

Industrial & Infrastructure Investment Corp Placement - Back to the Markets for the 12th Time

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment (3249 JP) is looking to raise around US$341m in its primary follow-on offering to acquire 28 properties...

Ethan Aw

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO -Thoughts on Valuation

After having cancelled its listing plans last year, the company is now looking to launch a smaller IPO of around US$250m, as per media reports.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett