Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Nuzran Sahib

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The government of Japan, together with four major companies, plan to demonstrate the first major hydrogen supply-chain in the run-up to the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. Hydrogen has been long considered as a rich and clean source of energy despite current high costs making it less-practical for mass scale power generation. As the government and the automakers of Japan prepare themselves for the changing landscape by building Fuel-cell vehicles and Hydrogen power stations, Chiyoda has developed SPERA Hydrogen® technology which has enabled Hydrogen to be handled like other fossil fuels.</p>

The government of Japan, together with four major companies, plan to demonstrate the first major hydrogen supply-chain in the run-up to the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. Hydrogen has been long considered as a rich and clean source of energy despite current high costs making it less-practical for mass scale power generation. As the government and the automakers of Japan prepare themselves for the changing landscape by building Fuel-cell vehicles and Hydrogen power stations, Chiyoda has developed SPERA Hydrogen® technology which has enabled Hydrogen to be handled like other fossil fuels.

Chiyoda's Ground-Breaking Technology with Hydrogen Leads to New Demo Project in the Energy Sector

Infrastructure Analyst - Ports & Terminals, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Victor Wai, CFA

Infrastructure Analyst - Ports & Terminals

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

<p>The containerised throughput of Singapore surged 9.1% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year, courtesy of some shipping lines aggregating their transhipment activities in Singapore. Drewry was quoted in a Business Times 2018 Outlook article on Dec 13, on what the future holds for Singapore’s container trade. We expect port throughput to accelerate in 2018, bearing in mind that Ocean Alliance and THE alliance took effect only in April 2017. The first quarter 2018 throughput will continue…</p>

The containerised throughput of Singapore surged 9.1% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year, courtesy of some shipping lines aggregating their transhipment activities in Singapore. Drewry was quoted in a Business Times 2018 Outlook article on Dec 13, on what the future holds for Singapore’s container trade. We expect port throughput to accelerate in 2018, bearing in mind that Ocean Alliance and THE alliance took effect only in April 2017. The first quarter 2018 throughput will continue…

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6232" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6232:1">Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)</a> registered revenue of JPY603.7bn in FY03/17 (-1.3%YoY) compared to JPY611.5bn in FY03/17 (+27.1% YoY). Low oil and gas prices in recent years have caused the company to reconsider new investment projects in the oil and gas industry due to excess supply. This has resulted in a decline in new orders for Chiyoda leading to a deterioration of revenue and margins. The bankruptcy of Emas Chiyoda Subsea (ECS), an affiliated entity caused to record a net loss of JPY41.2bn in FY03/17 against a net profit of JPY3.5bn in FY03/16.</p><p>Against this bleak picture, Chiyoda rose 10.2% today as it revised down OP from JPY8.5bn to -JPY9.5bn but wrote back JPY12.1bn of the losses it initially booked for the bankruptcy of ECS and raised revenue guidance from JPY430bn to JPY500bn. The new guidance may be conservative, but we will need to examine 2Q results to confirm this. To us, the sharp move in the share price is an indicator of depressed expectations and with oil prices approaching USD60 renewed investor attention to the stock seems a distinct possibility.</p>

Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) registered revenue of JPY603.7bn in FY03/17 (-1.3%YoY) compared to JPY611.5bn in FY03/17 (+27.1% YoY). Low oil and gas prices in recent years have caused the company to reconsider new investment projects in the oil and gas industry due to excess supply. This has resulted in a decline in new orders for Chiyoda leading to a deterioration of revenue and margins. The bankruptcy of Emas Chiyoda Subsea (ECS), an affiliated entity caused to record a net loss of JPY41.2bn in FY03/17 against a net profit of JPY3.5bn in FY03/16.Against this bleak picture, Chiyoda rose 10.2% today as it revised down OP from JPY8.5bn to -JPY9.5bn but wrote back JPY12.1bn of the losses it initially booked for the bankruptcy of ECS and raised revenue guidance from JPY430bn to JPY500bn. The new guidance may be conservative, but we will need to examine 2Q results to confirm this. To us, the sharp move in the share price is an indicator of depressed expectations and with oil prices approaching USD60 renewed investor attention to the stock seems a distinct possibility.

Chiyoda Corp: Looking to Revive Itself with Innovative Solutions

<p>Modec is up about 22% in one and a half months rebounding close to its recent peak following SMBC initiating on the stock with a buy. The company's earnings are relatively difficult to forecast as an analyst (FY03/19 consensus has a spread of JPY2.6bn - JPY17.5bn at the OP level) due to a somewhat complicated earnings structure that perhaps makes some investors decide that it is not worth the bother. This has lead to a situation where the company is trading close to all time lows on forward and historical PE at just 7.9x and 6.5x respectively, and just over 1.2x PB. Its average since listing for the three metrics are 21x forward PE (since 2006), 26.6x historical PE (since 2003) and 1.75x PB (since 2006).</p>

Modec is up about 22% in one and a half months rebounding close to its recent peak following SMBC initiating on the stock with a buy. The company's earnings are relatively difficult to forecast as an analyst (FY03/19 consensus has a spread of JPY2.6bn - JPY17.5bn at the OP level) due to a somewhat complicated earnings structure that perhaps makes some investors decide that it is not worth the bother. This has lead to a situation where the company is trading close to all time lows on forward and historical PE at just 7.9x and 6.5x respectively, and just over 1.2x PB. Its average since listing for the three metrics are 21x forward PE (since 2006), 26.6x historical PE (since 2003) and 1.75x PB (since 2006).

Modec Price Momentum Strong, 230% of Market Cap in Orders Incoming by Year End - 8x PE Is Too Cheap

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We looked at which regions in Asia are most correlated to the S&amp;P500. Over the last 8 years, 42% of Japanese companies have greater than 30% correlation to the S&amp;P500. The overall average correlation to the S&amp;P500 in Japan is 28%. The next closest is Taiwan with an average correlation of 28%, then Singapore with a correlation of 27% and Hong Kong with a correlation of 25%.  </p><h2>% of Companies with greater than 30% correlation to the US </h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/032/861/original/5.png?1504629108" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="32861"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><p>China actually has 1 company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10177" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10177:1">Tongling</a>…</p>

We looked at which regions in Asia are most correlated to the S&amp;P500. Over the last 8 years, 42% of Japanese companies have greater than 30% correlation to the S&amp;P500. The overall average correlation to the S&amp;P500 in Japan is 28%. The next closest is Taiwan with an average correlation of 28%, then Singapore with a correlation of 27% and Hong Kong with a correlation of 25%.  % of Companies with greater than 30% correlation to the US Source: Custom ProductsChina actually has 1 company, Tongling…

Japan and the Financial Sector in Asia Highly Correlated to the US....

Japan

MITSUI & CO., LTD. is a general trading company.  The Company has operating groups including Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Foods, Energy, Textiles, and General Merchandise.  Mitsui also operates real estate and overseas development projects.

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Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

Chiyoda's Ground-Breaking Technology with Hydrogen Leads to New Demo Project in the Energy Sector

The government of Japan, together with four major companies, plan to demonstrate the first major hydrogen supply-chain in the run-up to the 2020...

Nuzran Sahib

Fears of PSA Singapore

The containerised throughput of Singapore surged 9.1% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year, courtesy of some shipping lines aggregating...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Chiyoda Corp: Looking to Revive Itself with Innovative Solutions

Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) registered revenue of JPY603.7bn in FY03/17 (-1.3%YoY) compared to JPY611.5bn in FY03/17 (+27.1% YoY). Low oil and gas...

Mio Kato

Modec Price Momentum Strong, 230% of Market Cap in Orders Incoming by Year End - 8x PE Is Too Cheap

Modec is up about 22% in one and a half months rebounding close to its recent peak following SMBC initiating on the stock with a buy. The company's...

Mio Kato

Japan and the Financial Sector in Asia Highly Correlated to the US....

We looked at which regions in Asia are most correlated to the S&P500. Over the last 8 years, 42% of Japanese companies have greater than 30%...

Custom Products Group

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