APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$444m by trimming their respective stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajinomoto-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8911:1" rel="noopener">Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP)</a> via an extended secondary follow-on.</li>
<li>While the selldown doesn't seem particularly well flagged, it won't be a very large one to digest at just eight days of three month ADV. </li>
<li>In a bid to cushion the selldown, Ajinomoto plans to buyback its stock to the tune of 10m shares, which would amount to 80% of the base shares on offer. </li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$444m by trimming their respective stakes in Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP) via an extended secondary follow-on.
While the selldown doesn't seem particularly well flagged, it won't be a very large one to digest at just eight days of three month ADV. 
In a bid to cushion the selldown, Ajinomoto plans to buyback its stock to the tune of 10m shares, which would amount to 80% of the base shares on offer. 


Ajinomoto Placement - Share Buyback Should Aid Group Selling

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> can see higher profit guidance change than many in Japan, the region, given its first quarter was 40% of full-year guidance</li>
<li>Riding JGB yields will support this, with less loans to total financial assets, and the bank has even seen its unrealized losses on JGBs decline. Good ALM.</li>
<li>Credit metrics are better. Its credit costs are in reversal. This can continue or at least remain low. This is supported by granular, macro data. </li>
</ul>



Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) can see higher profit guidance change than many in Japan, the region, given its first quarter was 40% of full-year guidance
Riding JGB yields will support this, with less loans to total financial assets, and the bank has even seen its unrealized losses on JGBs decline. Good ALM.
Credit metrics are better. Its credit costs are in reversal. This can continue or at least remain low. This is supported by granular, macro data. 


Mizuho - Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a> announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI shares (after an AGM disaster).</li>
<li>The company had already planned to borrow ¥500bn against the KDDI stake to return capital to shareholders. That was in the price 5+ months ago. </li>
<li>The new hope is that Kyocera just got Corporate Governance Religion. I have my doubts, and even if it did, you have to look carefully at their ambitious plans.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI shares (after an AGM disaster).
The company had already planned to borrow ¥500bn against the KDDI stake to return capital to shareholders. That was in the price 5+ months ago. 
The new hope is that Kyocera just got Corporate Governance Religion. I have my doubts, and even if it did, you have to look carefully at their ambitious plans.


Kyocera (6971) And Their $10bn KDDI Stake - Did They Get CorpGov Religion?

<ul>
<li>40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.</li>
<li>92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.</li>
<li>Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.</li>
</ul>


40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

<ul>
<li>The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans</li>
<li>ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%</li>
<li>Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization</li>
</ul>


The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans
ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%
Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization


Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR (MUFG US)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR (MUFG US)

Mizuho - Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

Mizuho can see major rise in its profit guidance, since it has met 40% of target in first quarter, also due to rising JGB yields, better loan...

Daniel Tabbush

Kyocera (6971) And Their $10bn KDDI Stake - Did They Get CorpGov Religion?

Kyocera yesterday announced a downward revision AND an intention to "reconsider" the disposition of its KDDI shares after the June AGM hurt. That...

Travis Lundy

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

The macro backdrop for Japanese banks is pretty good. Business restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Global macro is adding fees. Stocks are up,...

Travis Lundy

Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

Cash is up a lot but loans are down a lot with sharply higher deposits, not the best ALM. Cost/income ratio is now 74%, not easy to cut costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ajinomoto Placement - Share Buyback Should Aid Group Selling

A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$444m by trimming their respective stakes in Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP) via an extended secondary follow...

Clarence Chu

Mizuho - Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

Mizuho can see major rise in its profit guidance, since it has met 40% of target in first quarter, also due to rising JGB yields, better loan...

Daniel Tabbush

Kyocera (6971) And Their $10bn KDDI Stake - Did They Get CorpGov Religion?

Kyocera yesterday announced a downward revision AND an intention to "reconsider" the disposition of its KDDI shares after the June AGM hurt. That...

Travis Lundy

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

The macro backdrop for Japanese banks is pretty good. Business restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Global macro is adding fees. Stocks are up,...

Travis Lundy

Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

Cash is up a lot but loans are down a lot with sharply higher deposits, not the best ALM. Cost/income ratio is now 74%, not easy to cut costs...

Daniel Tabbush