Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. </li>
<li>ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. </li>
<li>Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.</li>
</ul>


The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. 
ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. 
Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.


MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There may be no imminent yield curve control relief in Japan</li>
<li>MUFG market capitalization is up 2-3x and at a near decade peak level</li>
<li>Without YCC relief maybe the bank's 60% rise in NPLs in the past 4 years is better noticed</li>
</ul>


There may be no imminent yield curve control relief in Japan
MUFG market capitalization is up 2-3x and at a near decade peak level
Without YCC relief maybe the bank's 60% rise in NPLs in the past 4 years is better noticed


MUFG - What if No Yield Curve Control Relief?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.</li>
<li>Despite increased G&amp;A expenses, the company managed to rebound in terms of NOP, reaching a level before the introduction of negative interest rates.</li>
<li>We give Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.</li>
</ul>


Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
Despite increased G&amp;A expenses, the company managed to rebound in terms of NOP, reaching a level before the introduction of negative interest rates.
We give Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.


Mitsubishi UFJ Financial: Their Secret Sauce in Tackling Global Economic Uncertainties

<ul>
<li>The biggest Japan banks by assets, in spotlight as near ending of negative interest rates, with lowest LDR, so highest bonds, cash, can see major benefit from YCC relief</li>
<li>Years of low ROE at 5-7% seem behind MUFG now with 12-17% in past two quarters, where leverage is not out of control, with cost improvements key</li>
<li>Loss loans down 29% over past two years, can support low credit costs, which dropped sharply from 81bps to 15bps from 3Q23 to 1Q24, possibly moving to reversals</li>
</ul>


The biggest Japan banks by assets, in spotlight as near ending of negative interest rates, with lowest LDR, so highest bonds, cash, can see major benefit from YCC relief
Years of low ROE at 5-7% seem behind MUFG now with 12-17% in past two quarters, where leverage is not out of control, with cost improvements key
Loss loans down 29% over past two years, can support low credit costs, which dropped sharply from 81bps to 15bps from 3Q23 to 1Q24, possibly moving to reversals


MUFG (8306) - Biggest JPN Bank, Lowest LDR at 48%: Most Bonds | ROE Surge to 12% May Be Sustainable

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR (MUFG US)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR (MUFG US)

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

MUFG - What if No Yield Curve Control Relief?

Maybe there is no imminent yield curve control relief in Japan, making the market cap gains at MUFG questionable, especially against 60% higher bad...

Daniel Tabbush

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial: Their Secret Sauce in Tackling Global Economic Uncertainties

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat last quarter. Despite increased G&A expenses, the...

Baptista Research

MUFG (8306) - Biggest JPN Bank, Lowest LDR at 48%: Most Bonds | ROE Surge to 12% May Be Sustainable

With a view on YCC relief, no more negative interest rates, MUFG is one to focus on: largest bank in Japan by assets, mkt cap, low 48% LDR - lower...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

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