Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

“It’s déjà vu all over again” -  Attributed to Yogi Berra (1925-2015), legendary baseball Hall of FamerGetting money from a banker is sometimes likened to trying to squeeze blood out of a stone. Customers of Mizuho Bank, the principal commercial banking subsidiary of megabank holding company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> (MHFG), could be forgiven for agreeing with this derogatory epithet after over half of the bank’s 5,395 ATMs stopped working suddenly on Sunday 28 February.  Many customers were unable to draw cash out from the ATMs and some had their cash cards and savings passbooks ‘swallowed’ by the recalcitrant machines.  Internet banking was also apparently affected.This is not the first time that Mizuho has had major problems as a result of computer system crashes: there were similar issues in April 2002 and again in March 2011.  On both occasions, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) subsequently issued Business Correction Orders against the bank.  This time it appears that problems arose during a fixed deposit data update, causing the system to crash.Reputational damage is extremely difficult for any company to recover from easily, and perhaps more so for a bank where not only are issues of trust and public responsibility as a financial institution involved but also large sums of money.  What takes a generation to build can be lost in a moment when it comes to reputation and trust.  Smartkarma readers may well remember the public excoriation in 2010 on TV of a clutch of bank presidents both in the USA and the UK in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. In Japan, where the megabanks emerged largely unscathed from the worst excesses of the GFC (although their investment portfolios took a severe hit in FY3/2009), incoming Mizuho Financial Group president &amp; CEO Yasuhiro Sato seemed to spend much of his first six months in office from June 2011 appearing on TV to repeatedly publicly apologize for Mizuho’s past systems errors and for the ongoing inconvenience to customers.Senior management clearly have much to do in the wake of this latest incident to restore Mizuho’s reputation among customers as a brand that is synonymous with reliability.Market reaction has been typically perverse, with Mizuho’s share price rising gently as part of the recovery from Friday’s Wall Street sell-off.  The stock is up close to +13% over the last 3 months (against an average +17% for peers) but is only +1.5% YoY (versus an average +2.5% for peers).  In short, the stock is underperforming even as the banking sector outperforms the Topix Index for the first time in several years.As we have said in past Smartkarma Insights, MHFG’s lack of consistency, either in profit generation or management execution, makes this a difficult stock to recommend on fundamentals.  This latest systems débâcle will not improve its already battered reputation for reliability.  MHFG has time and again promised much but then either failed to deliver or has surprised the market with sudden sweeping changes in strategy, requiring long time-horizons for implementation and creating value.Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to would-be investors in this enormous but highly volatile banking group.

“It’s déjà vu all over again” -  Attributed to Yogi Berra (1925-2015),  legendary baseball Hall of FamerGetting money from a banker is sometimes likened to trying to squeeze blood out of a stone. Customers of Mizuho Bank, the principal commercial banking subsidiary of megabank holding company Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) (MHFG), could be forgiven for agreeing with this derogatory epithet after over half of the bank’s 5,395 ATMs stopped working suddenly on Sunday 28 February.  Many customers were unable to draw cash out from the ATMs and some had their cash cards and savings passbooks ‘swallowed’ by the recalcitrant machines.  Internet banking was also apparently affected.This is not the first time that Mizuho has had major problems as a result of computer system crashes: there were similar issues in April 2002 and again in March 2011.  On both occasions, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) subsequently issued Business Correction Orders against the bank.  This time it appears that problems arose during a fixed deposit data update, causing the system to crash.Reputational damage is extremely difficult for any company to recover from easily, and perhaps more so for a bank where not only are issues of trust and public responsibility as a financial institution involved but also large sums of money.  What takes a generation to build can be lost in a moment when it comes to reputation and trust.  Smartkarma readers may well remember the public excoriation in 2010 on TV of a clutch of bank presidents both in the USA and the UK in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. In Japan, where the megabanks emerged largely unscathed from the worst excesses of the GFC (although their investment portfolios took a severe hit in FY3/2009), incoming Mizuho Financial Group president &amp; CEO Yasuhiro Sato seemed to spend much of his first six months in office from June 2011 appearing on TV to repeatedly publicly apologize for Mizuho’s past systems errors and for the ongoing inconvenience to customers.Senior management clearly have much to do in the wake of this latest incident to restore Mizuho’s reputation among customers as a brand that is synonymous with reliability.Market reaction has been typically perverse, with Mizuho’s share price rising gently as part of the recovery from Friday’s Wall Street sell-off.  The stock is up close to +13% over the last 3 months (against an average +17% for peers) but is only +1.5% YoY (versus an average +2.5% for peers).  In short, the stock is underperforming even as the banking sector outperforms the Topix Index for the first time in several years.As we have said in past Smartkarma Insights, MHFG’s lack of consistency, either in profit generation or management execution, makes this a difficult stock to recommend on fundamentals.  This latest systems débâcle will not improve its already battered reputation for reliability.  MHFG has time and again promised much but then either failed to deliver or has surprised the market with sudden sweeping changes in strategy, requiring long time-horizons for implementation and creating value.Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to would-be investors in this enormous but highly volatile banking group.

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP):  Deja Vu All Over Again

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nissin Foods Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

Three shareholders of Nissin Foods plan to raise around US$226m via a global offering by selling 2.9% of the company. The selldown is being undertaken to reduce the cross shareholding.In this insight, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and provide our thoughts on the deal.

Three shareholders of Nissin Foods plan to raise around US$226m via a global offering by selling 2.9% of the company. The selldown is being undertaken to reduce the cross shareholding.In this insight, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and provide our thoughts on the deal.

Nissin Foods Placements - Shouldn't Have a Large Impact

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Japanese financial markets are now so liquid, thanks to the efforts of the BoJ as well as the commercial banks to minimize the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, that bankruptcies in January 2021 fell to their lowest level in 31 years.  Meanwhile, overall lending continues to edge down in terms of loans outstanding, even though YoY growth rates remain relatively high.While the Japanese bank sector has enjoyed a rally since the beginning of the year as the Nikkei-225 Index rises to its highest level in 31 years on high hopes for the successful roll-out of an effective COVID-19 vaccine, the fundamental outlook for the banks is clouded.   “Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

The Japanese financial markets are now so liquid, thanks to the efforts of the BoJ as well as the commercial banks to minimize the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, that bankruptcies in January 2021 fell to their lowest level in 31 years.  Meanwhile, overall lending continues to edge down in terms of loans outstanding, even though YoY growth rates remain relatively high.While the Japanese bank sector has enjoyed a rally since the beginning of the year as the Nikkei-225 Index rises to its highest level in 31 years on high hopes for the successful roll-out of an effective COVID-19 vaccine, the fundamental outlook for the banks is clouded.   “Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Bank Lending:  The Good, The Bad & The Terminally Indebted

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Negative Operating Remain Troubling: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 4Q20 results of SGD 1.0 bn, declining SGD 285 mn (22.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results remain troubling across the board, as this is the second consecutive quarter that DBS reported negative operating jaws whilst the decline in loss provisions reversed course on weaker credit;*Credit Risk Challenges Management: We remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs, as this improvement would appear to be in contravention to the stress being experienced regionally. By our calculation, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 631 mn or increasing 41.7% on an annualized basis – more than doubling the figures of SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis for 3Q20. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.8bn – amounting now to three plus full quarters of results, comparing very unfavorably to the SGD 1.3 bn calculated (one quarter of results) just a quarter earlier and suggest that Lakshmi Vilas Bank’s (LVB) risk is not under the control; and *India Deal Poses Significant Challenges: : By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent to the tune of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion. LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al.  DBS expects DBS India to return to profitability and that the LVB deal will be ROE accretive over the next 12-24 months. We’d like some of what management is smoking.

*Negative Operating Remain Troubling: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 4Q20 results of SGD 1.0 bn, declining SGD 285 mn (22.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results remain troubling across the board, as this is the second consecutive quarter that DBS reported negative operating jaws whilst the decline in loss provisions reversed course on weaker credit;*Credit Risk Challenges Management: We remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs, as this improvement would appear to be in contravention to the stress being experienced regionally. By our calculation, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 631 mn or increasing 41.7% on an annualized basis – more than doubling the figures of SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis for 3Q20. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.8bn – amounting now to three plus full quarters of results, comparing very unfavorably to the SGD 1.3 bn calculated (one quarter of results) just a quarter earlier and suggest that Lakshmi Vilas Bank’s (LVB) risk is not under the control; and *India Deal Poses Significant Challenges: : By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent to the tune of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion. LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al.  DBS expects DBS India to return to profitability and that the LVB deal will be ROE accretive over the next 12-24 months. We’d like some of what management is smoking. 

DBS Group Holdings – COVID & India Not A Good Combo

*Weak 4Q20: Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ) [BCA] reported 4Q20 results of IDR 7.1 tn, declining IDR 699 bn (9.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Worse yet, when we exclude various non-core items, core operating results declined IDR 4.6 bn (55.5%) over the same period. Results at BCA were highlighted by negative operating jaws; and  *Credit Challenge, But Modest Earnings Event: By our calculation, we find that 4Q20 net new NPLs amounted to IDR 1.3 tn for an annualized rate of increase of 46.5% - rivaling some of the worst Indian banks. Given the continued breakdown in credit quality which shows no signs of abating, we calculate that reserves are short close to IDR 3.5 tn or about 50% of 4Q20 PBT – which is de minimis relative to the sector and region.

*Weak 4Q20: Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ) [BCA] reported 4Q20 results of IDR 7.1 tn, declining IDR 699 bn (9.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Worse yet, when we exclude various non-core items, core operating results declined IDR 4.6 bn (55.5%) over the same period. Results at BCA were highlighted by negative operating jaws; and  *Credit Challenge, But Modest Earnings Event: By our calculation, we find that 4Q20 net new NPLs amounted to IDR 1.3 tn for an annualized rate of increase of 46.5% - rivaling some of the worst Indian banks. Given the continued breakdown in credit quality which shows no signs of abating, we calculate that reserves are short close to IDR 3.5 tn or about 50% of 4Q20 PBT – which is de minimis relative to the sector and region. 

Bank Central Asia – Poor Showing At Indo Bellweather

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP): Deja Vu All Over Again

Getting money from a banker is sometimes likened to trying to squeeze blood out of a stone. Customers of Mizuho Bank experienced this first-hand...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Nissin Foods Placements - Shouldn't Have a Large Impact

Three shareholders of Nissin Foods plan to raise around US$226m via a global offering by selling 2.9% of the company. The selldown is being...

Sumeet Singh

Japanese Bank Lending: The Good, The Bad & The Terminally Indebted

Japanese financial markets are now so liquid, thanks to the efforts of the BoJ and the commercial banks, that bankruptcies in January 2021 fell to...

J. Brian Waterhouse

DBS Group Holdings – COVID & India Not A Good Combo

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS: DBS reported a 4Q20 results decline of 22.0% linked quarter. Results remain troubling across the board. India deal poses...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Central Asia – Poor Showing At Indo Bellweather

BANK CENTRAL ASIA: BBCA reported 4Q20 results decline of 9.0% linked quarter. Results at BCA were highlighted by negative operating jaws. Net new...

Thomas J. Monaco

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